• Post Delta, there will be another variant
  • We already know, from Israel, that one of our current vaccines (Pfizer) is less effective against catching the Delta variant, although the vaccination generally results in fewer symptoms and fewer deaths
  • The Chinese vaccines are barely worth having (maybe 50% effective)
  • Travel will be restricted to the vaccinated and (probably) testing before and after departure from the home country will be mandatory, adding to the costs of travel
  • Costs of travel and the likelihood of a Phuket Sandbox-style entry persisting will inhibit short-time (14/21-day) holidays
  • A poorly-vaccinated population will increase the risk of tourists catching a (asymptomatic) COVID variant, which may in turn add to their costs when they return to their home country (if the home country also requires a test)
  • Poorly-vaccinated Chinese tourists will add to the risk of a further spread of one or more variants
  • Bar numbers will decline, as the changing tourist demographic and numbers will mean fewer customers and so fewer bars
  • The number of ex-pats retiring to Thailand will decline because of (1) a realisation of what might might happen "next time", and (2) fewer bars
  • The "2019 normal" isn't coming back


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