Coup in 2008?

[gearguy]

"I cannot guarantee that there will not be a coup in 2008, just like I cannot rule out a natural disaster."

* Thai Defense Minister GEN. BOONRAWD SOMTAS
* refusing to disavow military intervention after an opposition win in Dec. 23's national election

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I would have thought that, after the disaster of this coup running the country, it will be a long time before the military are foolish enough to mount another coup.

Then again I would not put money on it. The capacity of military to be foolish seems limitless.

[krobbie]

In the last 75 years there has been 17 coups in Thailand. What are the chances?

The Bangkok rumour mill held that the last coup was undertaken in part because HMTK and Prem didn't believe they could trust Thaksin in the event of the King's death while Thaksin was still prime minister. That hasn't changed. The same rumour mill now has the King nominating his three-year-old grandson as next King, with Virajalongkorn and Sirindhorn as joint Regents. The succession is one of the big uncertainties. Today's paper is full of politicians who hope to form the coalition government posturing about their loyalty to the King - http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/29Dec2007_news01.php

Not a wowpow cut'n'paste job

[Lunchtime O'Booze]

all those gorgeous soldiers in their uniforms.
:bud:
Beats the Pattaya Gay Festival any day.

I would say that another coup is almost a certainty. I will go a step further and say that if Thaksin does attempt a return that he would not live long enough to gain office again.

I would say that another coup is almost a certainty. I will go a step further and say that if Thaksin does attempt a return that he would not live long enough to gain office again.

And i would disagree. Thaksin is a smart cookie. His cronies will probably have all the anti Thaksin Army people removed (retired /bought off etc) long before he returns. He wont return as quickly as some would have you believe either.

I would say that another coup is almost a certainty. I will go a step further and say that if Thaksin does attempt a return that he would not live long enough to gain office again.

And i would disagree. Thaksin is a smart cookie. His cronies will probably have all the anti Thaksin Army people removed (retired /bought off etc) long before he returns. He wont return as quickly as some would have you believe either.

For what it is worth Oogleman, I believe that you have hit the nail right on the head with what you have said above, as it is my opinion that your predictions; are totally correct.

One thing I don't think Thaksin has ever had any desire whatsoever to become, is a martyr. Why should he, or need to become one, with the wealth he has, along with his many homes scattered around the globe? Not forgetting also of course, the adulation he still receives from many here in Thailand, as well as at least half of Manchester, for what he is doing and has already done at City.

Like you, I feel that Thaksin's return will be much later than is currently being forecast. As you have already correctly stated,Thaksin is a smart cookie, a fact for which there should be no doubt whatsoever in any ones mind. He will return home for certain in my opinion, but the time for him to return, will be chosen very carefully. The person responsible for choosing that time, will be Thaksin and Thaksin alone. That time may well not even be, until a certain extremely revered person, is no longer of this world. We shall see.

On a lighter note Oogleman, as someone that resides in the UK, I was wondering if you could tell us whether or not the major bookmakers over there, are offering odds as to when Thaksin will return to Thailand. They usually run a book in situations like this and, have run far crazier ones than this situation in the past.

Perhaps someone should start a poll for the members here, to see when they believe he will return. That is of course, for those of us us that give a damn. From what I have seen in many posts on this forum, the majority of posters not residing here, seem more concerned with when it will be time for them to return to the LOS, rather than Thaksin.

As someone that remembers all those years ago, when I used to count the months and then the days when it would be my time to travel once again to Thailand, I understand their sentiments completely. Furthermore, I can't think of one good reason, as to why they shouldn't be more concerned about their own return.

Chok Dee Oogleman. A Very Happy New Year to you. I look forward to again having the pleasure of your company, when it is once more your time to return to Thailand. I am positive that when the time comes for your return, it will be a time that is a long while before that of the Chairman of Manchester City.


George.

The Thai mind remains a complete mystery to me. It seems to me thinking is so compartmentalized, a result of the educational system, that no one ever puts all of the pieces together. Taksin's reincarnated TRT wins... but the same people who voted for PPP and in doing so totally repudiated the coup and its military leaders continue to pledge eternal love and loyalty to the one who green lighted the coup. They charge Taksin with corruption and have an article in the Bangkok Post about a police general that is so in love with Ferraris that he has three, and no one blinks an eye and questions how an honest cop could afford three Ferraris.

The religion teaches that all must live out their Karma....so the rich and privileged actually believe that they have an obligation to live extravagant life styles while ignoring the dreams and needs of the poor, and the poor believe that they are to remain poor and work to earn merit for the next life. How brilliantly the religion has been subverted by the State to keep the poor in their subservient position and re-enforce the power and wealth of the ruling class.

The past predicts the future. A new semi democratic government will rise and the instant that its policies threaten the ruling class......we will get to start all over again. Given the King's advancing age and the confusion that will follow, I can understand why the Thai military has always been so supportive of their counterparts in Burma.

As far as I am concerned anyone that can order the death of 1500 without so much as a trial should be dealt with in the same way. His down fall was his ego and it will continue to be his achilles heal. I just can't see the generals letting him return to power.