It's a bit horrific watching the kind of damage they are doing to the country.

I did some rough calculations you may find interesting:

GDP:

- Thailand earns about 6% of its GDP from tourism annually

- TAT spokesperson said they expected a 30% reduction in tourists in the coming high season... I would be surprised if it wasn't less.

- Assuming this... it means PAD has, in one fell swoop, decreased the nation's GDP by 2%

GDP Per capita:

- Thailand has 65 million people

- GDP per capita is around USD$7,900 / 276,500 baht

- 2% reduction = an average loss of USD$158 / 5,530 baht per person

Here's another way to calculate the loss... dollar wise:

- I heard somewhere that they were expecting 2 million tourists in the upcoming high season.

- Assume this is reduced by 30% (600,000 tourists)

- Assume (conservatively) each tourist spends $1,000 (very conservative estimate)

- Total expenditure of 600,000 lost tourists would have been USD$600 million = 21 billion baht.

Therefore, per capita:

- Thailand has 65 million people

- Therefore, per capita, a loss of 600,000 tourists means an average loss of USD$323 / 11,000 baht per person!

Ok... so I know there's a 5,000 baht difference between the 2 different calculation methods above, but they are based on reasonable assumptions.

The point is to demonstrate that this action has in effect, cost each of Thailand's 65 million citizens an average of between 5,000 to 10,000 baht (possibly more) in income over the coming year. Not good hey?

Remember I'm no mathmatician or economist... these figures are based on a few assumptions so forecasts are not going to be entirely accurate. But I think it's fair to say the figures are in the region of being correct.

And this doesn't include the further long-term losses from loss of business confidence turning away foreign investors.

In the short term... this will also be catastrophic for Bangkok.... no inbound/outbound air freight? No courier access? Incoming supply of tourists cut off?

It makes me wonder... there must be some cases where aircraft couldn't possibly be disallowed from flying? Medical evacuations? Transplant couriers?

Thousands of Americans are pissed because they won't make it home for Thanksgiving... what about people travelling to weddings? Funerals? To see dying loved ones for the last time? Exams?

I wonder if PAD calculated all this and fully understood the gravity of their actions before they made the decision to blockade 2 airports. I wonder of all the smiling, pumped up PAD protesters understand the effect of the actions they are assisting in.

I guess only time will tell if the collateral damage was worthwhile.

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