We're now in 2021 so it's Speculation Time again. Last July I posted "for Thailand not 2020, Songkran 2021 more likely" and included phrases like "rocks in their head" for those who thought otherwise. Now? I think Songkran 2021 is looking too optimistic. Q4 2021 seems much more likely. It was crystallised for me by a press conference held in Australia earlier today.

Last week the former Australian Chief Medical Officer (Brendan Murphy) was widely reported as saying "international travel is highly unlikely in 2021". From today's comments I infer that the politicians have told him to pull his head in; that's not the narrative the punters want to hear. Reference was made by the Prime Minister to an international hook-up to pool information.

Today the same individual (Murphy) said "We'll have a good idea in 3 to 4 months' time about vaccine effectiveness and the need for quarantine for those who have been vaccinated".

That puts us mid-year, roughly. By the time everyone gets their ducks in a row (not one of Thailand's strengths at the best of times) we'll be 2 or 3 months on. Hence my Q4 prediction. Here's a link to the press conference - Murphy's comments are in the last 15 minutes.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1lDxLpNeEVRxm

What's your prediction? (All underlines are mine)

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