Conspiracy theories reflect how we intuitively understand the world and events in it. The human brain did not evolve to process complex information about global politics, economics or science. It evolved to survive on the African savannah where threats and hostile intentions were a daily reality.
Under these circumstances it pays to assume that unseen threats are lurking everywhere, that “outgroups” have malign intent, or that coincidental events are causally related. The cost of holding these assumptions was minimal, but the cost of not holding them was often death. Natural selection favoured the conspiratorial mindset.
Our brains have other cognitive biases that make us susceptible to conspiracy theories. One is proportionality bias, a belief that major events have major causes. Intentionality bias makes us assume that events are planned by somebody or something. Confirmation bias means we seek out evidence that supports our beliefs. And the illusion-of-understanding bias makes us overestimate our knowledge of how things work.
Conspiracy theories can also paradoxically be emotionally reassuring. They provide truthful-sounding explanations for events that otherwise seem inexplicable, random or capricious, and often make your political opponents look bad. They can also give believers a pleasing sense of superiority because they – and sometimes they alone – have seen through the lies and cover-ups to reveal the “truth”.
Personality type also plays a part. People who are naturally suspicious of received wisdom and authority are more likely to believe.
Conspiracy theories are often utterly preposterous and totally lacking in credible evidence, but they are almost impossible to disprove, at least in the minds of believers. No amount of counter-evidence can refute them, and in fact this evidence often reinforces them because it can be dismissed as part of the conspiracy.
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