wait a while, the is a standard delay: relax your lockdown rules then wait a week or two to see if cases increase then wait another week or two and look at the hospitalisation and recovery/death rate, and then get more interesting by looking at the age/co-morbidity details - I don't want to revert to stereotypes but in the USA these days most age groups have at least one co-morbidity - obesity! but then I am sure I am not the only one on this forum that could be accused of being in a pot/kettle (and dare I say black) scenario in relation to this attribute!