Where did little Putin go? Thought he'd be here telling us we're all wrong about how miserably Russia is conducting itself and the draft.
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Where did little Putin go? Thought he'd be here telling us we're all wrong about how miserably Russia is conducting itself and the draft.
It's more like 20.5 million males of military age, that is between the ages of 18 - 44.
Those census numbers are from before the war, so we can drop that down to probably around 16 million by now, as a whole lot of people have died, been wounded, or have gotten out of dodge. Then considering there's reports of people ending up on the front lines 72 hours after reporting for the draft, I think it's safe to say it's probably not the most well trained fighting force on the planet.
If you still want to believe Russia has the upper hand, have fun with that. It's looking rather bleak for Russia though.
I have a German friend who has all kinds of conspiracy delusions and claims that the "evil empire" (USA) sabotaged those gas pipeline. He may have a point this time.
How does it benefit Russia to destroy a bargaining chip?
Does it really matter? No matter what, that gas pipeline was getting cut in the near future. That was inevitable.
I'm just curious as to what happens now. If the EU decides it was an act of sabotage from Russia, and NATO decides to consider that an act of war and a threat to the national security of the EU, shit could get very real very quickly.
It does. Right now Russia still acting with "soft hands": Russia still pumping gas via Ukrainian pipeline and pays to Ukraine for gas transportation. Ukraine has gas from it as well even when they in documents recording it as a gas what is bought from EU. We are talking about $1.2 bln for transportation. Winter is coming. Nord Stream pipeline has been sabotaged for to force Russia to keep that pumping and payments.
But result may be opposite: Russia will cut gas pumping via Ukraine and Ukraine will find itself without gas and money. EU and USA may easy to subsidize these money, but nobody cam to substitute gas. This winter on Ukraine will be very cold then.
Again, better just hope EU and NATO don't decide that it was an act of sabotage from Russia and constitutes an act of war.
I don't know who did it, and you don't either. I wouldn't put it past either, Russia or the US to pull this type of stunt.
Who knows... as it turns out, I'm not director of the CIA, so not really privy to that type of information.
What I do know is Russia started this war.
June 2, 2014. Ukrainian military aircraft bombing center of Lugansk.
https://youtu.be/0xp_v7odTrY
I'm a bit tired of all the arm chair warriors......we all have already lost...the waste of life...billions of dollars in destroyed infrastructure...even if Putin pulled back and apologised we still would have lost...just wish the whole thing would go away...
In the first half of the last century, following the collapse of various continental European empires, one fanatical politician became obsessed with gathering together all the native speakers of his language together in one state under his rule, and with annexing all neighboring territories where the inhabitants were speakers of his language. If that meant violating international law and international treaty obligations, that didn't matter.
At that time, that slogan was "Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer! [One People, One Realm, One Leader!]." The annexations went by the term "“Anschluss” (a word that means “connection” or “joining”).
That person was a Nazi, but I think the analogy is obvious. The idea now resonates with politicians of other political persuasions, including General Secretary Xi and Lord Voldemort.
Yeah, I know. And Chiang Wei-kuo served in the Wehrmacht. 4th Secretary-General of the National Security Council of the Republic of China (Taiwan).
In 1993, Chiang Wei-kuo was employed as a senior advisor to President Lee Teng-hui.
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Does anyone know, did Edward Snowden get called up to serve mother Russia? He was recently granted Russian citizenship, and he is of military age, so.... not sure what happened to him.
Chiang Wei-kuo was an obedient adopted son and was sent to study and serve in the Wehrmacht by his father Chiang Kai-Shek - he did not volunteer and obeyed as Confucian filial piety demanded then (and is still very strong now in Taiwan). Following his recall to China, he visited the United States as a distinguished guest of the US Army on behalf of his father and the Kuomintang. While in the United States, he gave lectures detailing on German army organizations and tactics. At the same time, his brother Chiang Ching-kuo (having previously been a student studying in Moscow) was being held as a virtual political hostage in the Soviet Union by Joseph Stalin. CKS was playing both sides against the middle.
On the other hand, and courtesy of Wikipedia, and following "Operation Barbarossa. "The two main forms of mass collaboration in the Nazi-occupied territories were both military in nature. It is estimated that anywhere between 600,000 and 1,400,000 Soviets (Russians and non-Russians) joined the Wehrmacht forces as Hiwis (or Hilfswillige) in the initial stages of Barbarossa, including 275,000 to 350,000 “Muslim and Caucasian” volunteers and conscripts, ahead of the subsequent implementation of the more oppressive administrative methods by the SS. As much as 20% of the German manpower in Soviet Russia was composed of former Soviet citizens, about half of which were ethnic Russians. The Ukrainian collaborationist forces comprised an estimated 180,000 volunteers serving with units scattered all over Europe. The second type of mass collaboration were the indigenous security formations (majority ethnic Russian) running into hundreds of thousands and possibly more than 1 million (250,000 volunteers in the East Legions alone). Military collaboration – wrote Alex Alexiev – took place in truly unprecedented numbers suggesting that, more often than not, the Germans were perceived at first as the lesser of two evils by Soviet non-Russians. emphasis added"
Obviously you do not understand the difference between being sent somewhere by your father, on the one hand, and volunteering to do something (note the word "volunteer" in the extract above) on the other. Perhaps logic and rational thinking are not taught in Russian educational systems?
His brother, Chiang Ching-kuo, studied in Moscow. After his father, CKS, purged leftist elements from the Kuomintang in response to the rise of the Communist party, the USSR imprisoned Ching-kuo. For more than 10 years, Ching-kuo remained in Moscow. During this time, Chiang Kai-shek refused to negotiate a prisoner swap. He firmly believed that compromising China’s future was not worth his son’s life. In 1937, Ching-kuo returned to China with a Belarusian wife. With both sons at home, Chiang Kai-shek decided to send Wei-kuo to receive a military education in Germany. Later, CKS ordered Chiang Wei-kuo to travel to the United States for further military training. Chiang Ching-kuo didn't decided himself to go to either Germany or the USA, but went where his father sent him - in accordance with the Confucian concept of filial piety I noted earler.
The fact that he became Secretary-General of the National Security Council or President's senior adviser later was because he was his father's son at a time when the KMT controlled Taiwan under martial law. His brother, Chiang Ching-kuo was the ROC President who ended martial law - after having the experience of being imprisoned in the Soviet Union because of what his father had done.
1. If you are referring to a legal age of majority at 18 years of age, the current legal age of majority in the Republic of China/ Taiwan is 21 years of age, as it will be until January 1, 2023 when it is lowered to 18. You are attempting to apply the situation in other countries which does not yet apply here.
2. There is no evidence that Chiang Wei-kuo was a serial killer-maniac, if that is what you intended to imply.
3. In Confucianism, the attitude of obedience, devotion, and care toward one's parents and elder family members was, and to a great extent still is, the basis of individual moral conduct and social harmony in society. Chiang Kai-shek embraced a form that is now known as Confucian fascism, however, and his sons did as they were told.
4. The standards of the early 21st century Russia did not apply in the ROC at the time Chiang Wei-kuo was sent to Germany, just as it did not apply when his brother was sent to the Soviet Union - perhaps you missed the point of the comment that CKS "firmly believed that compromising China’s future was not worth his son’s life," i..e., he would not trade his elder son's life for the ROC's future.
5. You may not agree with CKS's moral standards, but at least he had some.
6. Presumably, given your comments about people above 18 years of age being responsible for their own actions, you will understand why so many Russian men are fleeing the "partial mobilization," as they understand the illegality and immorality of the "special military operation"?
Despite gossips and rumors Russia is country of freedom in choice of place to travel and to live. So these who want to move, have option to move. Your call "flee" is propaganda. They just choose to travel or to move to another country. Why not? Nobody stops them, all borders are opened (at least these what Western "democracies" didn't lock yet by "sanctions").
And partial mobilization means exactly that - partial, below 300K from 25 mln. Most regions already reported what they have finished it. About 45K come voluntary, rest were drafted.
And by the way: for Russian govt is very important to keep borders opened - on this way opponents of military operation are going out of country, so here will be even less meetings and demonstrations.
"As Russians Flee, Some Find Draft Notices Waiting at the Border. The Kremlin dispatched federal security forces to frontier border crossings packed with Russian men trying to escape the draft by entering countries like Georgia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
The Kremlin has dispatched still more forces to shore up its faltering war effort, but the units are headed not to Ukraine but to Russia’s borders with other countries, where on Tuesday they were confronting young Russian men trying to join an exodus out of the country.
As the avenues for Russians to escape a draft order issued last week narrowed, the Federal Security Service sent armored vehicles to the frontiers, where some men waiting to flee were being served military call-up papers, the state news media reported" (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/w...ferendums.html).
Propaganda.
Friend of mine crossed border with Kazakhstan 3 days ago. Travel has been planned months ago - he has sister there to visit. He spend in line on the border about 3 hours. No questions from border guards even he had no tickets back to Russia on hands and he had Military ID with him.
I was watching his Live Location:
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Son of my oldest friends flew to Armenia just today - his wife is from Armenia and they went to visit her relatives as he has vacations. Also no questions from border guards in Moscow airport.
Yes, in both cases guards check list of mobilized (these "below 300K") and if person isn't in list - person is free to go.
Hmmm... Ukraine made a new bid for NATO membership. Maybe I'm naive, but I'm assuming there's more to this than just showmanship and there were discussions had behind the scenes before they put that new bid in.
Let's see what happens.
I don't know what NATO will say, but UK gas got +38% in price after that news.
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I quite obviously am not part of the NATO intelligence community, but it strikes me as odd that Ukraine would just throw in another bid for NATO membership like this. I'm assuming they didn't do it blindly or just for showmanship / publicity. There's a chance there's been discussions behind the scenes letting Ukraine know, "go ahead and submit another bid, we'll ensure it gets fast tracked and approved".
That kind of makes sense. If Russia is going to be assholes and straight up steal 18% of Ukraine and say "this is now Russian territory", there's a chance NATO will respond with, "ok, then the other 82% of Ukraine is now under NATO protection, what you gonna do bitch?".
See what happens....
Oh, and sure enough, now it's showing up in the news. Ukraine has submitted a "fast track" bid to become a NATO member:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJValMImWP4
I'm assuming there's been discussions behind the scenes before they pulled the trigger and submitted this bid. Let's see what happens. There's a chance this is the West's response to Russia straight up stealing 18% of Ukraine.
I would suspect that, if Ukraine's membership of NATO is fast-tracked, then any use by the Russian Federation of tactical nuclear weapons to deter any Ukrainian attempts to recover the illegally-annexed territories - on the grounds that they are part of the Russian Federation - would be regarded as an attack on NATO and met with the appropriate response. I
And US and NATO already replied "No way now".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9KLpEREV0M&t=817s Sullivan: "process in Brussel should be taken at different time".
Not according to Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General: "“A decision on membership, of course, has to be taken by all 30 allies and we take these decisions by consensus,” he said. “Our focus now,” he added, “is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion” Politico, September 30, 2022 5:13 pm (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...ion-join-nato/).
No decision has yet been taken.
National News Agency Ukraine, Dmitry Shurkho:
Thank you for you all. National News Agency of Ukraine Dmitry Shurkho. We, in Ukraine have no doubt we'll prevail and liberate our territories. But a few hours ago Ukrainian leadership showed us the possible way out of this bloody war and officially applied to NATO membership. My question, is NATO ready to consider that kind of application? And the second part of the question, is it possible to consider this speedy procedure for that kind of membership, like it was done for Sweden and Finland? Thank you so much.
NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg:
Every democracy in Europe has the right to apply for NATO membership, and NATO Allies respect that right. And we have stated again and again that NATO's door remains open. And we have demonstrated that over the last years.
NATO Allies, when they met at the NATO Summit in Madrid, stated also very clearly, that we support Ukraine's right to choose its own path, to decide what kind of security arrangements it wants to be part of. Then, a decision on membership, of course has to be taken by all 30 Allies and we take these decisions by consensus.
Our focus now is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion. And then that's the main focus and the main effort of NATO Allies, as we speak.
And 3 questions after:
NATO is not party to the conflict. We support Ukraine, but that doesn't make us part to the conflict. We support a sovereign nation in the sovereign right for self-defence.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_207788.htm
So where in this is "No"? I can find many "not's" in the statement but not a single "No" to Ukraine's membership
Stoltenberg is repeating what NATO's position is now, which is that NATO is not part of the conflict. That is a matter of fact. He repeats that NATO supports a sovereign nation in the sovereign right for self-defence. Again, that is a matter of fact.
He repeats that a decision on membership is up to the 30 members of NATO. That is a matter of fact. As the 30 members of NATO have not yet met formally, no decision has been reached. Again, that is a matter of fact. It is not Stoltenberg's decsion to make. That, too, is a matter of fact.
Stoltenberg is a diplomat and has given a diplomatic answer!
Yep, sounds about right to me.
If Ukraine was fast tracked into NATO - the membership approval would of course include ALL of Ukraine - including the 4 regions Putin just attempted to annex illegally. End result: (I can hardly type this with a straight face) NATO would then become the entire western border of Russia. Is there any confusion as to why tens of thousands of Russian citizens are fleeing across friendly borders right now???
Ukraine’s methodical and deliberate progress is a cold dose of reality for Putin who still seems to think he can create reality by the force of his own will. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said yesterday that the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that Russia does not control will have to be “liberated” – a statement that totally fails to recognize that the direction of travel on the battlefield is going the exact opposite direction. This guy must have been smoking too many doobies.
I've listened to several Military Strategists in the past few days who all question the true capabilities of Putin's nuclear capabilities - based on the fact that in order for a nuclear force to work it has to have a very strong and capable tactical foundation (ground game). As the World has witnessed, the Russian military, as well as the strategies that guide it, are severely flawed...totally incapable of achieving any military objectives...and are taking 10 times more casualties than their (perceived) enemy in the process. Sound like a strong foundation to you?
I watched Putin's speech yesterday and never saw so many stone-faced men like that in my life. I'd hate to be sitting at a poker table with any of them. No one blinked an eye...appearing as if they were totally brainwashed and void of any human thought or emotion. Jai said he thought they were just pretending to be serious - but in reality they were scared shitless listening to Putin's 17th century Taras Bulba rants.
Yeah, I'm not sure what they're thinking. There's reports of them drafting like 32 year old IT guys who had a year of military experience back when they were 18, and without any additional training, just shoving them onto a train and sending them to the front lines. Plus, apparently if you're a military aged male who protests the war, off to the front line you go. Yeah, let's give the protester a rifle and an PRG, and see how that goes.
Not sure who decided this was a good idea, but it wasn't. They're sending these guys who have absolutely no desire to be part of the war effort up to the front line against battle hardened Ukrainian soldiers who are using advanced Western weaponary, and are defending their freedom, homeland, and sovereignity.
Not to mention, Ukrainians know full what happened to their homeland when Joseph Stalin was running the helm back in the 1930s. I'm absolutely certain they would prefer to die defending their homeland vs. going back under Russian control and being slowly starved to death, send to the gulags in Siberia, et al.
You're right and who knows if a) Russia's nuclear arsenal even works at this point, and b) if the order would even be obeyed if Putin gave it. The Foreign Minister of Affairs of Ukraine was even on the Steven Colbert late show a little while ago, and doesn't seem too concerned about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjUHY2XgIxE&t=9s
Ukraine's position is basically Putin can call those regions part of the moon if he'd like, they don't care, and will not stop until they liberate every square meter of Ukrainian territory. Although Putin is quite obviously insane at this point considering maybe 30% of Russians view the annexation as legitimate, and literally everyone else on the planet views it as a sham, I still don't think he's dumb enough to fire off a nuke.
He must be intelligent enough to know that if he fires a nuke, NATO will have no choice but to fully engage, liberate Ukraine, and continue going all the way into Moscow and overthrow the government. NATO can not and will not allow Russia to go firing off nukes around Europe.