The Brink of War?

[Dragonman]

Propaganda.

Friend of mine crossed border with Kazakhstan 3 days ago. Travel has been planned months ago - he has sister there to visit. He spend in line on the border about 3 hours. No questions from border guards even he had no tickets back to Russia on hands and he had Military ID with him.

I was watching his Live Location:

Attachment 12786

Son of my oldest friends flew to Armenia just today - his wife is from Armenia and they went to visit her relatives as he has vacations. Also no questions from border guards in Moscow airport.

Yes, in both cases guards check list of mobilized (these "below 300K") and if person isn't in list - person is free to go.

My quoting from a respected news source is propaganda. Your unverifiable comments are not?

[Dragonman]

Oh, and sure enough, now it's showing up in the news. Ukraine has submitted a "fast track" bid to become a NATO member:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJValMImWP4

I'm assuming there's been discussions behind the scenes before they pulled the trigger and submitted this bid. Let's see what happens. There's a chance this is the West's response to Russia straight up stealing 18% of Ukraine.

I would suspect that, if Ukraine's membership of NATO is fast-tracked, then any use by the Russian Federation of tactical nuclear weapons to deter any Ukrainian attempts to recover the illegally-annexed territories - on the grounds that they are part of the Russian Federation - would be regarded as an attack on NATO and met with the appropriate response. I

[Moses]

Oh, and sure enough, now it's showing up in the news. Ukraine has submitted a "fast track" bid to become a NATO member:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJValMImWP4

I'm assuming there's been discussions behind the scenes before they pulled the trigger and submitted this bid. Let's see what happens. There's a chance this is the West's response to Russia straight up stealing 18% of Ukraine.

And US and NATO already replied "No way now".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9KLpEREV0M&t=817s Sullivan: "process in Brussel should be taken at different time".

[Moses]

My quoting from a respected news source is propaganda. Your unverifiable comments are not?

Sure. Because I'm in the middle of actions, you are in the middle of nowhere.

[Dragonman]

Sure. Because I'm in the middle of actions, you are in the middle of nowhere.

You're "in the middle of actions"? Prove it.

[Dragonman]

And US and NATO already replied "No way now".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9KLpEREV0M&t=817s Sullivan: "process in Brussel should be taken at different time".

Not according to Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General: "“A decision on membership, of course, has to be taken by all 30 allies and we take these decisions by consensus,” he said. “Our focus now,” he added, “is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion” Politico, September 30, 2022 5:13 pm (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...ion-join-nato/).

No decision has yet been taken.

[Moses]

Not according to Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General: "“A decision on membership, of course, has to be taken by all 30 allies and we take these decisions by consensus,” he said. “Our focus now,” he added, “is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion” Politico, September 30, 2022 5:13 pm (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...ion-join-nato/).

No decision has yet been taken.

National News Agency Ukraine, Dmitry Shurkho:

Thank you for you all. National News Agency of Ukraine Dmitry Shurkho. We, in Ukraine have no doubt we'll prevail and liberate our territories. But a few hours ago Ukrainian leadership showed us the possible way out of this bloody war and officially applied to NATO membership. My question, is NATO ready to consider that kind of application? And the second part of the question, is it possible to consider this speedy procedure for that kind of membership, like it was done for Sweden and Finland? Thank you so much.

NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg:

Every democracy in Europe has the right to apply for NATO membership, and NATO Allies respect that right. And we have stated again and again that NATO's door remains open. And we have demonstrated that over the last years.

NATO Allies, when they met at the NATO Summit in Madrid, stated also very clearly, that we support Ukraine's right to choose its own path, to decide what kind of security arrangements it wants to be part of. Then, a decision on membership, of course has to be taken by all 30 Allies and we take these decisions by consensus.

Our focus now is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion. And then that's the main focus and the main effort of NATO Allies, as we speak.

And 3 questions after:
NATO is not party to the conflict. We support Ukraine, but that doesn't make us part to the conflict. We support a sovereign nation in the sovereign right for self-defence.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_207788.htm

[Dragonman]

National News Agency Ukraine, Dmitry Shurkho:

Thank you for you all. National News Agency of Ukraine Dmitry Shurkho. We, in Ukraine have no doubt we'll prevail and liberate our territories. But a few hours ago Ukrainian leadership showed us the possible way out of this bloody war and officially applied to NATO membership. My question, is NATO ready to consider that kind of application? And the second part of the question, is it possible to consider this speedy procedure for that kind of membership, like it was done for Sweden and Finland? Thank you so much.

NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg:

Every democracy in Europe has the right to apply for NATO membership, and NATO Allies respect that right. And we have stated again and again that NATO's door remains open. And we have demonstrated that over the last years.

NATO Allies, when they met at the NATO Summit in Madrid, stated also very clearly, that we support Ukraine's right to choose its own path, to decide what kind of security arrangements it wants to be part of. Then, a decision on membership, of course has to be taken by all 30 Allies and we take these decisions by consensus.

Our focus now is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion. And then that's the main focus and the main effort of NATO Allies, as we speak.

And 3 questions after:
NATO is not party to the conflict. We support Ukraine, but that doesn't make us part to the conflict. We support a sovereign nation in the sovereign right for self-defence.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_207788.htm

So where in this is "No"? I can find many "not's" in the statement but not a single "No" to Ukraine's membership

Stoltenberg is repeating what NATO's position is now, which is that NATO is not part of the conflict. That is a matter of fact. He repeats that NATO supports a sovereign nation in the sovereign right for self-defence. Again, that is a matter of fact.

He repeats that a decision on membership is up to the 30 members of NATO. That is a matter of fact. As the 30 members of NATO have not yet met formally, no decision has been reached. Again, that is a matter of fact. It is not Stoltenberg's decsion to make. That, too, is a matter of fact.

Stoltenberg is a diplomat and has given a diplomatic answer!

[Dodger]

I'm assuming there's been discussions behind the scenes before they pulled the trigger and submitted this bid. Let's see what happens. There's a chance this is the West's response to Russia straight up stealing 18% of Ukraine.

Yep, sounds about right to me.

If Ukraine was fast tracked into NATO - the membership approval would of course include ALL of Ukraine - including the 4 regions Putin just attempted to annex illegally. End result: (I can hardly type this with a straight face) NATO would then become the entire western border of Russia. Is there any confusion as to why tens of thousands of Russian citizens are fleeing across friendly borders right now???

Ukraine’s methodical and deliberate progress is a cold dose of reality for Putin who still seems to think he can create reality by the force of his own will. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said yesterday that the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that Russia does not control will have to be “liberated” – a statement that totally fails to recognize that the direction of travel on the battlefield is going the exact opposite direction. This guy must have been smoking too many doobies.

I've listened to several Military Strategists in the past few days who all question the true capabilities of Putin's nuclear capabilities - based on the fact that in order for a nuclear force to work it has to have a very strong and capable tactical foundation (ground game). As the World has witnessed, the Russian military, as well as the strategies that guide it, are severely flawed...totally incapable of achieving any military objectives...and are taking 10 times more casualties than their (perceived) enemy in the process. Sound like a strong foundation to you?

I watched Putin's speech yesterday and never saw so many stone-faced men like that in my life. I'd hate to be sitting at a poker table with any of them. No one blinked an eye...appearing as if they were totally brainwashed and void of any human thought or emotion. Jai said he thought they were just pretending to be serious - but in reality they were scared shitless listening to Putin's 17th century Taras Bulba rants.

[cdnmatt]

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said yesterday that the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that Russia does not control will have to be “liberated” – a statement that totally fails to recognize that the direction of travel on the battlefield is going the exact opposite direction. This guy must have been smoking too many doobies.

Yeah, I'm not sure what they're thinking. There's reports of them drafting like 32 year old IT guys who had a year of military experience back when they were 18, and without any additional training, just shoving them onto a train and sending them to the front lines. Plus, apparently if you're a military aged male who protests the war, off to the front line you go. Yeah, let's give the protester a rifle and an PRG, and see how that goes.

Not sure who decided this was a good idea, but it wasn't. They're sending these guys who have absolutely no desire to be part of the war effort up to the front line against battle hardened Ukrainian soldiers who are using advanced Western weaponary, and are defending their freedom, homeland, and sovereignity.

Not to mention, Ukrainians know full what happened to their homeland when Joseph Stalin was running the helm back in the 1930s. I'm absolutely certain they would prefer to die defending their homeland vs. going back under Russian control and being slowly starved to death, send to the gulags in Siberia, et al.

I've listened to several Military Strategists in the past few days who all question the true capabilities of Putin's nuclear capabilities

You're right and who knows if a) Russia's nuclear arsenal even works at this point, and b) if the order would even be obeyed if Putin gave it. The Foreign Minister of Affairs of Ukraine was even on the Steven Colbert late show a little while ago, and doesn't seem too concerned about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjUHY2XgIxE&t=9s

Ukraine's position is basically Putin can call those regions part of the moon if he'd like, they don't care, and will not stop until they liberate every square meter of Ukrainian territory. Although Putin is quite obviously insane at this point considering maybe 30% of Russians view the annexation as legitimate, and literally everyone else on the planet views it as a sham, I still don't think he's dumb enough to fire off a nuke.

He must be intelligent enough to know that if he fires a nuke, NATO will have no choice but to fully engage, liberate Ukraine, and continue going all the way into Moscow and overthrow the government. NATO can not and will not allow Russia to go firing off nukes around Europe.