Lull before the storm

Having just come back from Thailand, I got the distinct feeling that some kind of coup is imminent. There is the classic build up, Prime minister suddenly trying, but unsuccessfully to rearrange the military, Royalty, with the military's backing opposing the Government. The prime minister making all sorts of desperate and "bizarre" overtures to the west for help, even likening himself to Aung San after he had to stay home for a day. The west however preoccupied, and sensibly unmoved.

It seems to me it will no longer depend on how the mood in the rural's swings, both the interested parties have more or less this same constituency, however the subtleties of persuasion from the governments opposition out there, seem lost, will the army have to define these subtitles a little bit more, as it's main ally is more or less bounded by these subtleties? Will the democratically elected but corrupt monkey of a prime minister decide to stand down, in favour of an acceptable replacement, and not just someone who secures and furthers his own extreme and insatiable ambitions and ill gotten wealth? Is there such an acceptable person? Will the prime minister go quietly, or has he already committed the worst of all sins, and spoken ill of the nations respect for it's monarchy, and as such displayed a tenacity and lack of respect for the Thai people themselves that will never simply vanish of it's own accord?

The military is already stirring, and taking up it's position and it is up to the task. The whole nation jumped in their shoes last week after a small but visible military exercise led them to believe they were beginning to make a move. Lets hope for all the Thais sake, that they dont have any real ambitions themselves, but like a shepherd, just guide the happy democratic process along it's path.

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Like I said long ago, Thaksin's primary motivations are:

1. To keep all his money (as he is a criminal, he is danger of it being confiscated)
2. To keep out of jail

Notice he is now OUT of Thailand and will be for some time. Maybe forever. Remember Marcos.

The chances of seeing him again as PM are very remote.
Not sure whether there will be a military coup or not, but in the context of Thailand, a coup isn't the worse thing that could happen, especially if it secures Thaksin's definitive EXIT.

[Bob]

Yes, the smell is certainly in the air. And it's only been 14 years or so since the last one. If it happens, it'll only happen with the blessing or tacit approval of the King and I'm doubtful that will occur. As backward as the Thai governmental institutions may be and even though the military has a long history of changing governments in LOS, I would think that all of the relevant
parties' biggest worry would be the impact to Thailand from the international reaction to a coup.

I arrive October 17th and I hope I see neither soldiers nor boats (the predicted flooding) at the new airport.......

I have been reading that King Never Smiles book, and based on that, it would not be unheard of for the King to approve of a coup.

Like I said, there are alot worse things than a coup, if the coup led to fair elections.
The current situation with Thaksin pulling down the country is intolerable.

I doubt the military will take over. Just the threat of them doing so ought to galvanise the parties into sorting their mess out.

I'd say its 50, 50, and a coup doesn't necessarily mean a military dictatorship. It could be a transition period. We shall see. In any case, Thaksin is history. Of course, post Thaksin could even be worse. Such is politics and life.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/09 ... 013834.php

Like I said, there are alot worse things than a coup, if the coup led to fair elections.

Don't forget that "fair elections" brought Thaksin to power initially and have kept him there. Another election today would re-elect him in a second.

What's "fair"?

Like I said, there are alot worse things than a coup, if the coup led to fair elections.

Don't forget that "fair elections" brought Thaksin to power initially and have kept him there. Another election today would re-elect him in a second.

What's "fair"?

No election system is perfect. Not so certain he would be elected today, but maybe. It is unacceptable to too many powerful people for Thaksin to continue because Thaksin has radically divided a country that so values harmony.
Thaksin will NOT be back in power. Ever. Not clear how that will come about, but it is apparent.

Thaksin so blatantly values his own interests over the countries interests. The King has been mentioned. Do you think the King wants Thaksin to continue, when that means a divided nation? Of course not.

Not so certain he would be elected today, but maybe.

That may be how it looks from Georgia, but here in Thailand there is no question whatsoever that Thaksin retains plenty popularity to carry an election were it to be held today.

Not so certain he would be elected today, but maybe.

That may be how it looks from Georgia, but here in Thailand there is no question whatsoever that Thaksin retains plenty popularity to carry an election were it to be held today.

Thats really not the point. Thaksin in power is unacceptable. You also know it will never happen again. I already agreed that Thaksin could win the votes again, but again, that is not the point. It doesn't MATTER that Thaksin can win again. It would be too damaging to Thailand for that to happen, and there are more powerful forces at play than the ego and money of that one man.

Thailand needs a UNITER, not a DIVIDER.
Thailand is NOT a real democracy in the western sense and may never be one.
To paint Thaksin as a defender of democracy is comical considering he is a criminal.