Stage is set for massive political conflict in Thailand

[Narakmak]

Thaksin and sis are playing hard ball now. A Thaksin pardon measure is now on the table. If this goes forward, will there be blood? As if the floods weren't bad enough, even bigger trouble is brewing in Thailand today.


Yingluck ran saying she was about reconciliation and not about just helping one man, older brother. Nobody in their right mind believed her. And so it now comes to this.

Why does this matter to Gay Thailand? Do you really have to ask. If there is blood in the streets, that's not so gay now, is it?

Opposition leader lashes out at attempted Thaksin pardon



BANGKOK, Nov 16 - Thailand's Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva on Wednesday said it was unacceptable that the cabinet on Tuesday considered an amnesty decree which could benefit fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra saying the move must be seen as destroying the rule of law and could spark another round of political crisis.

The Democrat Party leaderтАЩs criticism came after the cabinet meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung on Tuesday secretly considered a decree seeking a royal pardon for convicts amid speculation that convicted ex-premier Thaksin could benefit from the move.

Mr Thaksin, ousted in a coup in 2006, was sentenced in absentia in 2008 to two years imprisonment for abuse of power by helping his then wife acquire a parcel of prime Bangkok commercial land at a price far below the market value.

Mr Abhisit asserted he and the Democrat Party could not accept the cabinet's action as there were some irregularities and the move was against principles of transparency, in particular the revision of a clause which allows a fugitive found guilty of corruption to be eligible to seek a royal pardon.

He said the revised decree opened way for convicts or fugitives to seek royal pardons without serving jail terms, as well as allowing those who have been convicted of particular charges such as corruption, earlier disqualified from seeking amnesty, to apply for it.

"This will deepen the rift," Mr Abhisit said. "The prime minister intended not to be present at the cabinet meeting."

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Mr Thaksin's youngest sister, did not chair TuesdayтАЩs cabinet meeting, saying she could not return from Sing Buri province where she visited flood victims as her helicopter had no radar for night flights.

The Democrat leader argued, however, that despite the premier's absence, she could review the cabinet decision and that she could not deny her responsibility on the matter.

Mr Abhisit urged the government to stop pushing the amnesty move for "only one person" and said the premier still has a chance to review the case to avoid possible chaos.

Opposition chief whip Jurin Laksanavisit said the opposition resolved to question cabinet members over the issue in parliament so the public will be informed of the facts. тАЬThe main cause for concern is that if the criteria for royal pardon have been revised, it is meant to serve one particular person,тАЭ Mr Jurin said.

He noted that in the past the convicts must partially serve their jail terms before they are eligible for a royal pardon.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung conceded today that the cabinet secretly discussed the amnesty decree yesterday, but said he could not disclose the details as no conclusion had yet been reached.

Mr Chalerm noted that the government has no authority to seek a royal amnesty, but it is the duty of the Justice Ministry to set up a 20-member panel to study the appropriate criteria for those eligible to apply for royal pardon.

The justice ministry will forward its decision for consideration by the cabinet and the Council of State, the government's legal arm. If all parties concerned agree with the proposal, the amnesty decree will be presented to His Majesty the King for royal endorsement.

Referring to the annual royal pardon for the convicts to be set free Dec 5 as part of the celebrations of the king's birthday, Mr Chalerm said some 26,000 convicts are eligible to be granted royal pardon this year.

The deputy premier however declined to comment whether the government's move will benefit Mr Thaksin. (


-- TNA 2011-11-16

MCOT online news

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[SlaveDriver]

Thailand needs political reconciliation and that should be inclusive. Thaksin is an important part of the reconciliation. Whether we like it or not it is a fact of Thailands politics and future.

The process should be fair and inclusive and should include every player so that Thailand can have a lasting political and social stability and the country with so much potential can move forward for the betterment of everyone.

[Smiles]

Going the Royal Pardon route is an interesting and foxy way of getting Thaksin back ... and so Thai Politico!

Give this aspect some thought: rather than introducing legislation in Parliament, or attempting a constitutional amendment, a Royal Pardon ('amnesty') will, at the end of the day, become a 'Royal' decree, and thus any criticism of it could be interpreted as 'Lese Majesty'. The legislative or constitutional route will for certain open up a very nasty can of worms. But now, if that can contains an implied Lese Majesty threat, politicians may well think twice about opening it up.

Looks like Ms Yingluck ('Badluck') Shinawatra was obviously informed of this (secret) Cabinet debate and was probably advised to 'take a helicopter ride' somewhere.
She did, but could not get back in time because she was informed that the helicopter was not equipped to do night flying (right: an army helicopter!!). According to an army 'source' yesterday in the Post, the helicopter was indeed able to fly at night.
Typical.

" ... The process should be fair and inclusive and should include every player so that Thailand can have a lasting political and social stability and the country with so much potential can move forward for the betterment of everyone ... "

:laughing3: And may I ask which brand-name of rose-coloured set of spectacles did you groggily choose this morning?

[Marsilius]

And may I ask exactly where this supposed potential lies?

Any economic potential (on which any other "potentials" will have, by necessity, to be based) will be held back immeasurably by centuries-old ingrained cultural and social attitudes among the bulk of the population. The foundations for the nation-wide and socially inclusive economic development needed to exploit any "potential" are simply not there. Moreover, it is, arguably, not in the ruling class's interest to construct them.

[Narakmak]

And may I ask exactly where this supposed potential lies?

Any economic potential (on which any other "potentials" will have, by necessity, to be based) will be held back immeasurably by centuries-old ingrained cultural and social attitudes among the bulk of the population. The foundations for the nation-wide and socially inclusive economic development needed to exploit any "potential" are simply not there. Moreover, it is, arguably, not in the ruling class's interest to construct them.

I'd love to engage you in discussion, but your post is incoherent. I realize you don't think it is, but it is. Try again, or forget it.

[Marsilius]

Rather than attempting to be supercilious, perhaps you would have the grace to explain where the incoherence lies?

[luvthai-2]

I doubt the King would sign a pardon that involved Thaksin. The Generals will not approve and could result in another coup.

[Narakmak]

I doubt the King would sign a pardon that involved Thaksin. The Generals will not approve and could result in another coup.

But this isn't a pardon for Thaksin. It's a pardon for many thousands of people, including the big one. According to prominent democrat Korn, such governmental decries have always been signed by the King before almost automatically. If he doesn't sign it, not only is he not pardoning Thaksin, he will be hurting many thousands of Thais that may deserve this pardon. It's a tricky game obviously.

[Narakmak]

Rather than attempting to be supercilious, perhaps you would have the grace to explain where the incoherence lies?

Life is too short.

[Marsilius]

Rather than attempting to be supercilious, perhaps you would have the grace to explain where the incoherence lies?

Life is too short.

Clearly, any grace that I had all too naively assumed that you might be capable of displaying in civilised debate does not exist.

I will, however, attempt to explain my original position in a way that even you might be able to comprehend.

1. The development of Thailand's various "potentials" (social development, redistribution of wealth, eradication of rural poverty, educational improvement, better national infrastructure, etc. etc.) is dependent on a thriving economic base which allows such things to be afforded.

2. But a thriving national economic base (as opposed to the prosperity of a small number of super-rich individuals) is widely held back by culture, tradition and old established ways of looking at life. To take one example: Buddhism, like many religions, acts to prevent the accumulation of capital by individuals in traditional rural communities where surpluses are likely to be "invested" supernaturally and non-productively (in an economic sense) in such things as gifts to temples or to monks, spending on religious ceremonies, etc etc. The same phenomenon was observed long ago by Max Weber who postulated that modern capitalism could only have been born in Protestant societies where profit was seen as a sign of divine favour and something to be reinvested, rather than as a means to curry favour with the deity by using it to demonstrate the donor's "good [i.e. religious] works.".

3. The almost total absence in rural Thailand of a sizeable body of small-scale, profit-driven enterprises (including farming ones) following policies of constant further investment for growth means that Thai capitalism has an extremely narrow base controlled by a very small elite of the urban ruling class. The latter have nothing to gain - and a very great deal to lose - by challenging the status quo and promoting national and socially-inclusive economic development.