Hopes For Pattaya High Season Sinking

[Gaybutton]

Again, I hope you're the one who's right. You are a hell of a lot more optimistic than I am. The closer to right you turn out to be, the better we'll all like it. And the sooner the better.

[goji]

As a reminder, after easing of restrictions earlier in 2021:

Almost all the bars in Jomtien opened.
Both Sunee gogo bars and some host bars opened.
In Boyztown, some businesses did not open. The only gogo bars that I noticed open were Cupidol and X-Boys. However, both had highly unattractive formats, Cupidol with fully clothed boys and gogo prices, whilst X-boys had old men in jeans & loud music. Neither got my custom.

If they are allowed to open, I expect we will see something similar this time around until visitor numbers build up.

Just for comparison, the UK allowed all pubs and businesses to open without restrictions on 19 July.
The UK has a near identical population to Thailand and had delivered 82.5 million doses by that point.

Thailand should reach 82.5 million doses some time in November.
If the Thai government adjusts it's thinking to take account of much lower post vaccine death rates, there is no reason why they should not relax almost all restrictions this year.
Compared with the UK, Thailand might lose a little due to an inferior vaccine mix, but they should gain due to a warmer climate and they will probably have the sense to continue requiring masks to be worn where practical.

So:
Will Pattaya have a normal high season ? No chance.
Will there be enough open to entertain expats and be better than any other location on the planet ? Yes. There should be, if the government does the right thing and relaxes restrictions.

[Old git]

Just for comparison, the UK allowed all pubs and businesses to open without restrictions on 19 July.
The UK has a near identical population to Thailand and had delivered 82.5 million doses by that point.

Thailand should reach 82.5 million doses some time in November.
If the Thai government adjusts it's thinking to take account of much lower post vaccine death rates, there is no reason why they should not relax almost all restrictions this year.
Compared with the UK, Thailand might lose a little due to an inferior vaccine mix, but they should gain due to a warmer climate and they will probably have the sense to continue requiring masks to be worn where practical.

So:
Will Pattaya have a normal high season ? No chance.
Will there be enough open to entertain expats and be better than any other location on the planet ? Yes. There should be, if the government does the right thing and relaxes restrictions.

As I've said before, I think the numbers game on vaccination is mainly a reassurance exercise for the domestic population, but it's also a ball kicking exercise - a reason for not doing anything - yet..

I doubt the numbers of vaccinations, cases, hospitalisations etc. will ultimately have much bearing on the decision making.

Once those profiteering from Covid can see the party is over, and retreat to count their winnings, the rest of Thailand will go headlong into a return to normality.

If one massage shop has staff wearing masks and the next one doesn't, and the one that doesn't is doing better trade, the shop with masks will ditch them pronto.

Think of it as a cracking dam wall - once the owners of the dam give up on saving it, the flood will follow. I don't believe we will have years of lingering sub-normality.

[arsenal]

At some point every country will have to take the decision to 'bulldoze through' and accept that there will be some cases and some deaths but that life has to get back to normal. In this respect the UK has led the world with their airports jammed and restaurants full. The UK has also said that by the spring , it will be little more than a common cold and I like to think that's a correct assessment..

[Old git]

At some point every country will have to take the decision to 'bulldoze through' and accept that there will be some cases and some deaths but that life has to get back to normal. In this respect the UK has led the world with their airports jammed and restaurants full. The UK has also said that by the spring , it will be little more than a common cold and I like to think that's a correct assessment..

And at some point countries will realise that counting and publishing daily Covid case numbers is no longer a constructive exercise, and that they need to focus on getting 'post-Covid' to get their economies back up to steam. Thailand is a prime example of that. The hardship caused by the lack of tourists almost certainly outweighs the peril from Covid.

It certainly outweighs the miniscule hazard posed by allowing tourists the necessary quarantine free access, to get them to return in volume.

[Manforallseasons]

One positive is how quickly the pace of vaccinations is occurring however, I think it is folly to over estimate the amount of entertainment venues both straight and gay that will reopen having been closed with out any income for a very long time. All the venues are largely reliant on foreigners not expats and unless all the red tape disappears no one will be rushing back here also if venues are restricted as to how many people allowed, shortened hours, vaccine cards both for workers and customers it will create an untenable situation.
I for one only miss the tourist’s support of the locals, having said that most expats have adapted rather well and many do not cherish a mass influx of tourists.

[Old git]

Commercial property rental in Thailand works in slightly strange ways - typically a large sum up front followed by regular monthly payments. Most of the freeholders are of Chinese/Thai extraction. Assuming that most of the tenants have long since run out of money to pay their landlords, I'm not sure how the landlords will now react.

If the landlords now expect fresh key money and a new tenancy deal, the old tenants may well have a fundamental problem finding the initial sum to reopen. If I were a landlord and had a previously good tenant seeking to reopen, I'd probably suggest that they open up right away without fresh key money, and make good the rent arrears over a five year period - but Asian landlords have some strange ways of reasoning.

Hopefully the need to get some cash coming in is sufficiently pressing for the landlords as to persuade them to make some effort to get places reopened.

[Gaybutton]

Asian landlords have some strange ways of reasoning

That reminds me of Bruno's restaurant. Some of you may remember Bruno's. Before the restaurant moved to Jomtien, he was located for many years on Second Road. The reason he moved to Jomtien was because of a stubborn landlord. Though he had been at the Second Road location for years, all of a sudden the landlord was demanding nearly triple the rent. Bruno refused and tried to negotiate with the landlord. The landlord wouldn't budge, so Bruno moved out. The building remained vacant for years. For all I know it might still be vacant.

None of us could understand what the landlord was thinking. He would prefer to lose a tenant who had reliably been with him for years rather than even discussing or negotiating.

[gerefan2]

We don’t need an immediate opening of all the bars and entertainment. Note the word ALL.

As said above this high season is lost. However the Thai plan is to reopen but they need to realise that those coming to Thailand need SOME entertainment. As the numbers will be small, compared with normal times, the number of places reopening will easily cater for the small numbers arriving. As time goes on, and tourists numbers rise, so more and more bars will reopen. And boys will follow.

I see no problem visiting Thailand this winter provided they reopen entertainment. There will be sufficient available in the short term for the reduced number of visitors.

Last night I had a video call from a Thai friend from Sunee. He was Mau. I asked him where he had been drinking and he said Sunee. Are the bars open I asked? He confirmed what Dodger said above!

All is not lost. Patience...

[Old git]

As said above this high season is lost.

I think it's very premature to call that. Europe is rapidly getting over Covid, and people will be itching to fly off to the sun this winter as much as they ever did before, not least because many have spent far less than usual during lockdown and are now flush with cash.

Thailand just needs to go the extra mile and ditch the quarantine requirements and other restrictions that are messing up the tourist scene, which could happen as soon as Nov 1st, but more likely Dec 1st I suspect; and see tourism from europe back to full strength after Xmas.