The Brink of War?

[Moses]

====Ukraine, with a population of 45 million people====
Last time it has population 45 mln in 1989, in 2016 measurement shows less than 38 mln

The UN figure for the population of Ukraine in 2016 was 44.624 million, including Crimea. I assume your lesser figure is based on the population in the illegally annexed areas of Crimea and the DonBas.


I was interested to hear the rehearsed cheer used at the end of the odd speech by Putin by the assembled armed forces, which sounded to me extraordinarily like the Ooorah cheer used by the US Marines. Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery, I understand.

No. It is based on declaration of Ukrainian govt, + reports of Russian and Polish, Czech, Austrian immigration depts: only in Russia we have 2.5 mln Ukrainian migrants. Yearly 0.5-0.7 mln take Russian citizenship. Ukraine - country what loses population 1-1.5 mln yearly since 2014. Northern Somalia.

In 2019 Dmitro Dubilet - minister in Ukrainian govt published number slightly higher than 37 mln https://ukranews.com/en/news/679223-...illion-dubilet

So, right now it should be about 30 mln if not count refugees..

[dab69]

"immigrants" and "refugees:- not "slaves"?

[Moses]

"refugees:- not "slaves"?

Well. You should ask Polish govt at first - there are 3 mln Ukrainians

[Dragonman]

No. It is based on declaration of Ukrainian govt, + reports of Russian and Polish, Czech, Austrian immigration depts: only in Russia we have 2.5 mln Ukrainian migrants. Yearly 0.5-0.7 mln take Russian citizenship. Ukraine - country what loses population 1-1.5 mln yearly since 2014. Northern Somalia.

In 2019 Dmitro Dubilet - minister in Ukrainian govt published number slightly higher than 37 mln https://ukranews.com/en/news/679223-...illion-dubilet

So, right now it should be about 30 mln if not count refugees..

The State Statistics Service of Ukraine (http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/) cites an average population figure for 2021 of 41,167,336, and a figure for 2014 (the last year they counted the population of Crimea and Sevastopol) of 45,426,249. The 2019 figure you cited was based on an electronic census using multiple sources, including mobile phone and pension data, and estimated that Ukraine's population, excluding Crimea and parts of the Donbas seized by the Russian Federation (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine--pop.../30393838.html). Before Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, the peninsula had 2 million inhabitants, whereas the densely populated easternmost Donetsk and Luhansk regions had nearly 6 million people before the Donbas conflict erupted.

You keep commenting on the size of the Ukrainian population. What is the current population of Russia, i.e., not counting the dead members of the military forces (who reportedly number in the thousands), and the reported hundreds of thousands (perhaps as high as a million) who have left Russia as a result of the invasion of their neighbor? How many of these are in technology, academia, and other economic sectors Russia can ill-afford to lose? How many more would like to go but can't? Russian investigative journalist Andrei Loshak has said of this phenomenon, "We are experiencing the largest brain drain in recent history" (https://www.dw.com/en/who-are-the-ru...try/a-61364390).

This is not counting the 700,000 Covid-19 pandemic deaths reported by Reuters.

After the collapse of the communist bloc, and without the former Soviet republics, the population of the Russian Federation fell to 148.5 million. In 2020, it was 144.1 million, and, according to UN projections, made before the pandemic and the war/special military operation, it could fall to 139 million by 2040. Already, 15.51% of the population is over 65 and increasing. The number of children per woman, 1.5 on average, is below the threshold of 2.1 needed to replace the population without immigration - and who in their right mind would immigrate to Putin's Russia?

Putin has promised to raise Russia's minimum wage and the salaries of all public sector workers (but not, apparently, the private sector ones), but from where is the money to come? How is he going to pay for the replacement of all the military hardware destroyed so far, and that which will be destroyed? Moreover, much of it relies on western-made parts. Ironically, it seems that one of the reasons why Russia can't build new ships is that they were powered by Ukrainian-built engines, which Ukraine now no longer supplies.

Bearing in mind the sheer geographic size of the Russian Federation, and its demonstrated problem with military logistics in invading a neighbor whose border is only 450 km from Moscow, perhaps it should give some thought to what its example might mean to its neighbors - the 18 countries with either land or sea borders - who might want to do a land grab of their own?? For example, Japan wants the Kuril Islands back, and has no peace treaty with Russia. They won't have long supply chains to worry about if they see an opportunity to copy Russian examples. I understand that Vladivostok itself is 8,994.3 km from Moscow - via а/д Амур/Р-297 - and 9,259 km by train - a logistical nightmare.

Moreover, I understand that there is already speculation that Russia will collapse within 3-5 years (https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/e.../04/7/7137384/).

What goes around, comes around.

[Moses]

===== Japan wants the Kuril Islands back, and has no peace treaty with Russia. They won't have long supply chains to worry about if they see an opportunity to copy Russian examples.

Japan even doesn't quit from Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 oil projects... They aren't nation what shoots own leg.

Today:

TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters on Monday morning that Japan would maintain its stakes in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 energy projects in Russia, from which it imports oil and natural gas.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukr...ojects-Kishida

[Dragonman]

===== Japan wants the Kuril Islands back, and has no peace treaty with Russia. They won't have long supply chains to worry about if they see an opportunity to copy Russian examples.

Japan even doesn't quit from Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 oil projects... They aren't nation what shoots own leg.

Today:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukr...ojects-Kishida

Another red herring response.

1. I mentioned only the Kuril Islands - Japan no longer claims the island of Sakhalin, which is quite separate from the Kuril Islands. As a Taiwanese, I would remind you that Sakhalin was once considered part of China during the Ming and Qing dynasties - and we all know the attitude of the CPC to getting back what they consider were once tributaries of the Chinese Empire - see, e.g., "Beijing is engaged in disputes with 17 nations over land and sea borders" (https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world...itory-disputes). Any flimsy excuse will do, even dashes on a map.

2. That Japan is not giving up its share of Sakhalin 1 and 2 is old news - first reported March, 2022 by Reuters (and https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...an-2022-03-25/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2022-03-31/).

The Sakhalin 1 project is 30% owned by Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development (SODECO), which is in turn held by the Japanese government and several Japanese companies including trading houses Itochu Corp (8001.T) and Marubeni Corp (8002.T). Two other leading Japanese traders, Mitsui & Co (8031.T) and Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T), own stakes of 12.5% and 10% respectively in the Sakhalin 2 project.

The Japanese are not going to donate this share to Russia.

[Dodger]

I watched a video of Russia's Victory Day ceremony today, and all I can say is that I wish those marching boys were wearing leotards.

Maybe it's just me, but Putin came across with a sense of desperation. Not so much in his words - but in his eyes.

All-in-all I thought the whole event was rather low-key. No saber-rattling or threats - just scripted attempts to sell the audience on his innocence...justifying all of his actions...blaming any/all moving objects around him for HIS decisions.. and painting himself as the victim. No real surprise there.

Many seem disappointed that Putin didn't unveil his next new war strategy, but I chalk this up simply to the fact that he hasn't a clue what to do next. Who would?

The only complaint I have about the whole event is that the marching boys didn't smile. They looked way too serious to me and need to loosen up a bit...learn how to grin.. and put a little sway in those hips. I was actually getting a boner imaging them standing in the locker room wearing matching under pants.

[cdnmatt]

What's sad about this whole thing is Russia is going to end up in economic ruin for decades to come. Well, what's even more sad is all the folks who were murdered and raped in Ukraine, but yeah....

Russia isn't going to stop, so the West has obviously made the decision that it won't stop either until Russia is out of bullets and simply can't fight anymore. This is now a war of attrition. Thing is, the West can keep up this kind of pressure for decades, whereas Russia simply can't. At some point here Russia will run out of steam, and in the meantime until that happens, we're all just kind of hoping Putin isn't crazy enough to send off nukes.

This whole thing is just so sad and unnecessary. Russia is still only making minimal gains at best in eastern Ukraine, and all the while there's ~140,000 NATO based soldiers, a fleet of F-35s and so on just sitting there on the sidelines bordering Ukraine ready for action. Russia doesn't stand a chance.

At this point, the only saving grace Russia may have at its disposal is a revolution. Overhal the government, get Putin and all his comrades out there, draft a new constituion that's a little more fair to the Russian people, and get your shit together. That's pretty much the only chance Russia has at saving itself from a 30 year long economic depression.

[Moses]

What's sad about this whole thing is Russia is going to end up in economic ruin for decades to come. Well, what's even more sad is all the folks who were murdered and raped in Ukraine, but yeah....

Russia isn't going to stop, so the West has obviously made the decision that it won't stop either until Russia is out of bullets and simply can't fight anymore. This is now a war of attrition. Thing is, the West can keep up this kind of pressure for decades, whereas Russia simply can't. At some point here Russia will run out of steam, and in the meantime until that happens, we're all just kind of hoping Putin isn't crazy enough to send off nukes.

This whole thing is just so sad and unnecessary. Russia is still only making minimal gains at best in eastern Ukraine, and all the while there's ~140,000 NATO based soldiers, a fleet of F-35s and so on just sitting there on the sidelines bordering Ukraine ready for action. Russia doesn't stand a chance.

At this point, the only saving grace Russia may have at its disposal is a revolution. Overhal the government, get Putin and all his comrades out there, draft a new constituion that's a little more fair to the Russian people, and get your shit together. That's pretty much the only chance Russia has at saving itself from a 30 year long economic depression.

Matt, is it kind of trolling? NATO will stay away, nobody wants next WW.

Speaking about "end up" economic - even countries from G7 don't want to stop to trade with Russia (look at Japan, for example).

So all you have - to sit down and to watch end of Nazi regime in Ukraine. Or to go to street and to feed Ukrainian refugees - they think what whole World has obligation to them and be ready: they have high demands.

And about sanctions: EU just dropped idea to sanction Russian oil transportation - they can't overpower vetoes from EU members https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...o-other-buyers

[Moses]

The Sakhalin 1 project is 30% owned by Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development (SODECO), which is in turn held by the Japanese government and several Japanese companies including trading houses Itochu Corp (8001.T) and Marubeni Corp (8002.T). Two other leading Japanese traders, Mitsui & Co (8031.T) and Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T), own stakes of 12.5% and 10% respectively in the Sakhalin 2 project.

The Japanese are not going to donate this share to Russia.

Correct. Instead it they will pay taxes here. Sanctions you said?