Wile I regret the costs of war "If you don't fight, you lose!"
Wile I regret the costs of war "If you don't fight, you lose!"
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I'm afraid that I don't feel able to suggest what the eventual outome might be. What strikes me as odd is that, on this occasion, we have heard very little from the Sangha. During the major uprising in 2007, known appropriately as the 'Saffron Revolution', monks played a big role. The absence of support from this quarter makes me wonder whether they have come to some sort of 'arrangement' with the military. There is certainly a significant number of monks who are nationalistic, typified by the vile U Wirathu, but I had hoped that the Sangha had this under control. It would be very easy for the Sangha to accept assurances from the army, were they to be given, that the army were keen to maintain Buddhism as a major force in Myanmar.
The generals are totally committed and will go on killing people for as long as they feel they have to. Sanctions, however targetted, are a waste of time, they simply don't care. All that matters is their survival. One day, just over a week ago, they killed 12 kids and this is just part of their attempt to terrorise the population. They shoot at random and don't care whether it's a protester they hit or not. While not an emotional person, I weep at some of the stories coming out of the country. At the moment www.irrawaddy.com is still functioning though the Army are taking action against them.
Having travelled in the country a fair deal over the past 20 years, I came to realise the extent to which the Burmese, in the form of the Tatmadawgyi, had murdered, raped and pillaged in the ethnic areas as instruments of government policy. At independence the Burmese had the rice and the ethnics had the natural resources. Burmese rice these days is of very poor quality and the best rice is grown in the ethnic areas. The Burmese want the resources, but not the people who live there. As an example of this you might look at the border between Shan State and Mandalay Division and ask yourself how Mogok and Maymyo came to be in Mandalay Division? Until Independence they were part of the Shan States. Mogok has the Rubies and other precious stones and Maymyo has the climate to grow all sorts of things flowers/vegetables/fruit for the central part of the country.
In the course of travels in the ethnic areas it became evident that while they sang about the 'Panglong Agreement', they had no idea what it contained. They had no access to the details of this important document and I made it my job, when the opportunity arose, to educate them. This was best done in thew local Wat or, more recently, in the camps of one of the EAOs. Having met a history graduate of Taunggyi University, who had become a PhD student, it was shocking to discover that his knowledge of his own ethnic history was weaker than mine. Things are taught from a Burmese perspective even in, and perhaps especially in, the ethnic areas.
My interest in all this was reinforced when I met my Shan partner some 15 years ago. Given the tendency of the Shan to marry at a young and to have large families I have a large extended family, with whom I find it very difficult to keep up. Some have fled the country and those that remain live in quite remote areas. While this was a disadvantage in the past, with forced relocation and other army activities, it's probably an advantage at present. We are talking about people who live in bamboo houses, without electricity or running water, cook over an open fire (only allowed at certain times of day in case the village gets burned down) no postal service and very basic healthcare facilities. This is improving, albeit slowly.
The standard work on Shan history is "History of the Shan State: From its Origins to 1962" by Sai Aung Tun. It's usually out of print and pretty expensive when available. The views expressed here are my own and others may well have a diffierent take on things.
Brad the Impala (April 18th, 2021), dinagam (April 15th, 2021), Dodger (April 15th, 2021), goji (April 15th, 2021), Jellybean (April 15th, 2021), Ruthrieston (April 15th, 2021), snotface (April 18th, 2021)
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