Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is ‘not great’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coro...not-great.html
WHO says the late-stage coronavirus trials don’t mean a vaccine is ‘nearly there’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/who-...rly-there.html
The possibility that a vaccine may never be found is also possible and being taken very seriously by experts at the World Health Organization -- because it's happened before. I prefer staying optimistic, but won't start counting any chickens yet.Originally Posted by Zebedee
That said, the concern that some people have about this pandemic disrupting their vacation plans pales in comparison to the death and destruction this pandemic is causing. Maybe it's time for some people to get their priorities in order. Just a thought!
BenCH (August 10th, 2020), daydreamer (August 10th, 2020), kittyboy (August 9th, 2020), Zebedee (August 9th, 2020)
Well said. The main reason I waded into this thread was because of some of the over optimistic views being expressed by some individuals. In fact I felt it was misleading to the extent that on reading, it almost trivialised the serious nature of the Virus and the effects it has and will continue to have for quite some time. Unfortunately the topic then became further divided,with "Expats " ( that pompous term gives me a chuckle) versus "tourists" ! Some comments were downright callous and unnecessary.
I would guess that the majority readership/ posters of this forum would be in the high risk age category, the very people that need to know the truth. Of course everyone is entitled to express their views, but given the topic those views should be made in "good faith" not simply to try to score points.
A genuinely alarming survey.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...19-vaccination
Oliver, I think that's a mute point.
If a vaccine becomes available, those who refuse it will be the ones who get sick. They will quickly change their minds - unless they want to self - isolate for the rest of their lives because of the incredibly contagious nature of Covid.
Dodger wrote:
Yes, it happened with Aids. But that is now more of an inconvenience than anything else, and certainly no longer a death sentence for those who can afford the medication.The possibility that a vaccine may never be found is also possible and being taken very seriously by experts at the World Health Organization -- because it's happened before.
I think the same will happen with the virus.
I expect UK vaccine take up rates will be in excess of 80% when the time comes.
And, who cares ?
If people refuse a vaccine and catch covid, that's the consequence of their own choices. One or two high profile deaths amongst the anti-vaccers will soon change attitudes.
Ideally the NHS would refuse covid treatment for people who refuse the vaccine, but I suspect the management is too screwed up to take such decisions.
As far as I can tell, AIDS is a much more complex problem to solve than coronavirus, so not a good comparison. Also the technology is so much more advanced now than when AIDS first became a hot topic.
As for the minimum threshold being a vaccine reducing infection rates by 50%, surely that's only one measure of performance ? The severity of the disease amongst the other 50% should also be of interest.
nothing I have seen in any details of the currently most promising vaccines have indicated the developers, or any other health commentators, expect them to be 100% effective in 100% of patients
I would be interested to see what phase III trial results will convince you, or your clinical advisor, that a vaccine that may be available to you in December will be effective enough for you to justify decisions such as a trip to Thailand
more importantly, I would be interested to see what clinical evidence you think will convince the Thai government to accept your "vaccination certificate" in December, particularly if you expect them to allow you in without having to undergo quarantine
personally I think the Thai government may well have a slightly less laissez faire attitude to such "easy peasy" decisions given their delicate balancing act of the short and long term economic and social effects of ongoing travel restrictions v's the short and long term economic and social effects of the increase in disease spread and death without such ongoing travel restrictions
I'm willing to admit I'm no expert, and I would be happy to see some links to what you are reading to make you so confidant of this prediction, and yes I could be wrong - riots in the streets by unemployed tourist related industries in the next few months may lead the Thai government to abandon its current conservative attitude and re-open the borders ignoring the possible consequences
as you say "Let's wait and see. Easy peasy"
I can’t even be bothered to be apathetic these days!
The problem with large numbers of people not willing to be vaccinated has implications for us all, not only because of the effect on NHS facilities and programmes but because other countries may deny access to all of us if these foolish people are dropping like flies.
Unfortunately, “for you to justify” is a small part of the issue as ultimately the Thai government will make that decision for you.
"In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"
arsenal (August 9th, 2020)
We know all governments decide their entry requirements, so repeating it is unlikely to enlighten us. Or wind anyone up in the way that you might intend.
After significant numbers of us have hypothetically been vaccinated in 3~12 months, well if the Thai government still has some crazy reason for denying us entry, no problem, we just go elsewhere.
arsenal (August 9th, 2020)
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