Scottish Independence

[Surfcrest]

I also struggle to see any valid comparison between the Irish economy - which is a overwhelmingly a knowledge economy - and the Scottish economy which is rich in natural resources (not least an estimated ┬г1.5 TRILLION worth of oil) and which would help to rank an Independent Scotland 6th in the world on GDP per head (according to OECD figures) - compared to what would be the UK's 16th place (on the same figures).

When the oil finally runs out (and despite UK Treasury scaremongering there's no sign of that - capital investment in North Sea Oil is running at record levels and those guys know a damn sight more that agenda-driven UK ministers) then Scotland is well placed to be a world leader in renewable energies - on target to generate 100% of all our requirements from renewable sources by 2020 and already a net exporter of energy (unlike the UK). Food and Drink exports are at record levels and, with the explosion in Asian markets, will only rise. Inward investment in Scotland is also a success story and Scottish Development International are judged one of the most successful international development agencies in the world.

Unfortunately, if you were to closely study the Oil issue as you present it (In terms of Scottish wealth) you are in a unique location in terms of marketing. It would be difficult, if not problematic to believe that from a geographical stand point your most likely best customer (in the event of independence) would not be.....England. And because they most likely have a sizeable investment in the projects in Scotland already...with other international firms...the best you could hope from the resource would be tax revenues and unfortunately again...these percentages are based capped or limited by the international price of crude oil.

Next, with respect to oil prices....is that we are currently surfing on yesterday's demand for crude, with existing reserves. Todays, or more importantly tomorrow's demand will take into consideration all of the adjustments that have been made in primarily the auto sector since 2008 to reduce consumption. Maybe I am wrong, but I see demand for crude and especially prices to stall...if not fall somewhat over the coming years. Unless you can remain competitive for the Chinese demand for oil or refined products through the Grangemouth Refinery, I don't see the most promising market for you. Even though Grangemouth is quite an aging refinery (2nd oldest in the UK), heavy Chinese investment in the past 5 years...combined with the fact that the refinery only really serves Scotland, Ireland and North England (With the exception of refined chemicals going to China Petrolneas), means some significant re-investment is going to be required

And so, while the resource...where it sits represents a promising future for Scotland in terms of future revenues and economic spin-offs (Especially Aberdeen)...it will require refineries and a transportation infrastructure to get it to market. All of these costs will off-set the direct benefits...putting money in the pockets of the multi nationals, such as China, Germany, Canada (Suncor)...and indeed England.

This whole independence question is not unique to the UK or even Spain. We too struggle with the very same question in terms of our French province Quebec. Certainly, both Canada and Quebec realize the tremendous costs and economic uncertainty for both of us if we head down the path of Quebec Independence someday. Quebec, believes they have the upper hand in terms of the hydro electric impact they provide to the region and indeed to the North American power grid. What they sometimes fail to see is that this market was created by the government they want to succeed from and that investment into these projects didn't necessarily come from Quebec.

From Scotland's independence, I can see there might be quite some debate as to who really has the rights to North Sea Oil, once independence happens...which will only create uncertainty for investors in both Scotland and the UK...which could very well make this dream of independence all the more unaffordable.

Where we in Canada have found the most success with this question is in allowing Quebec to feel more a part of our National Government, to feel represented in the say of the greater good of the country, rather than to remain focused on their own plight. We, the rest of the country does indeed spend a great deal of money appeasing the French....making decisions for the good of their economic health...than say what is good for Canada (And some of these decisions were quite wrong), but it was for the good of our combined economic health...both Canada and Quebec.

For many of us, especially in the business sector....realize that if we did not make these sacrifices...for the sake of our own less advantaged family member (Quebec), that our own economic fortunes would be adversely affected...so it remains, the right thing to do. Hopefully, whether it's the Scots, or the Basques or the Catalans...or even Taiwan, to a certain extent....will see it that way.

Any good investor wouldn't put all of his / her chips into one Sector, oil. Investment has to be diversified to create real long term wealth, jobs and tax revenues. If Scotland really believes she has the potential to go it on her own, beyond the oil she sits above....then let's show the world the bigger vision!

Surfcrest