The Bangkok Post 22nd May 06 - Thailand tourism slumps despite record budgets - IMTIAZ MUQBIL

"Fear of ghosts in tsunami-hit areas and instability in southern Thailand exacted a devastating toll on Thailand's 2005 visitor arrivals. Final figures for 2005 have not yet been released. However, some very significant clues are contained in the final figures for January-September, which were released last week and show total arrivals of 8.18 million, down 3.19% over the same period of 2004. The final tally for 2005 is expected to be around the 10 million mark, well short of the target of 13.3 million and about the same as that recorded in the worst years of tourism this decade _ 2001, the year of the 9/11 attacks, and 2003, the year of Sars and the US-led attack on Iraq.

The shortfall threatens to become another embarrassing political liability for the in-limbo Thaksin administration which coughed up record budgets for tourism revival in the aftermath of the December 2004 tsunami, and is still struggling with the unrest in the country's three southernmost provinces.

It may also affect the future of TAT governor Juthamas Siriwan, who, in spite of reaching the retirement age of 60 this year, is rumoured to be seeking an extension of her four-year contract due to expire in September. Having developed close ties with Somkid Jatusripitak, the caretaker deputy prime minister, on the basis of her tourism marketing credentials, she needs to show results to justify the huge amounts spent last year.

Poor figures will put Thailand in a bad light relative to other Asean countries, nearly all of which reported arrivals growth last year: Singapore up 7.4% to 8.94 million, Malaysia up 4.6% to 16.43 million and the Philippines up 14.6% to 2.6 million. Thailand will land up in the same camp as Indonesia, another formerly high-flying destination when it was politically and economically stable.

An analysis of the visitor profiles for January-September 2005 (by country of residence), posted on the TAT website last week, provided clear indicators of the sources of and reasons for slowdown:
- A noticeable trend is a steep fall in first-time visitors to 3,211,225, down 23.77% over the same period of 2004.
- The key markets of Northeast Asia were worst hit. First-time visitors from China were down 25.51% to 335,674, Hong Kong -58.90% to 111,137, Korea -17.35% to 406,980, Taiwan -50.72% to 163,469, and Japan -23.49% to 312,845. First timers from another key market, Malaysia, fell 20.86% to 249,411. These markets are Thailand's top sources of visitor arrivals; in 2004, they generated a combined total of 5.5 million arrivals, or 48% of that year's total.
- Although all six source markets (except Hong Kong) did show considerable increases in repeat visitors, the overall total was not enough to compensate for the sharp downturns in first timers. In the Northeast Asian countries, tour operators reported that massive publicity about the tsunami-related casualties had generated a major fear of spirits and ghosts haunting the beaches of Phuket.
- First-time visitors fell across the board, with the exception of Brunei, Laos and Saudi Arabia. First timers from Europe were down 19.13% to 703,568 and the Americas -5.68% to 202,393. They were also down from other key source markets like India (-3.08% to 119,553) and Australia (-19.05% to 100,726).

- The country was saved largely by strong growth in repeat visitors (+17.24% to 4,975,258). In addition to those leisure travellers who are familiar with Thailand and keep coming back, there was strong growth in convention delegates (+397% to 433,409). Business travellers totalled 711,091, a statistically stagnant 'growth' of 0.14% over January-September 2004.

In 2005, the TAT spent a lot of time, money and effort to prop up visitor arrivals, especially from China. A number of senior delegations visited China to generate interest, based on the 30th anniversary of the opening of bilateral diplomatic relations. An agreement was also signed with Chinese tour operators for tourism promotion including tactical advertising campaigns designed to generate quick-fix results.

The statistics being publicised are the 'positive' ones, such as arrivals at Bangkok international airport in the first quarter of 2006, which are showing strong growth over the same period of 2005.

Much will depend on the final arrivals tally from Malaysia, Thailand's top source market. In January-September 2005, arrivals totalled 988,675, a fall of 3.4% over the same period of 2004. The fact that Malaysian arrivals at Bangkok airport are up indicates that there has been a decline in overland arrivals via the southern border points."

Imtiaz Muqbil is executive editor of Travel Impact Newswire, an e-mailed feature and analysis service focusing on the Asia Pacific.

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