President Obama?

Can Obama win? I'm not sure - and so (for the record) today I bet against him being President on the betting site Intrade. He's just not American enough for that parochial nation. So far it's been a clean sweep - Bush for President in 2004, Rudd for Australian PM in 2007, neither Clinton nor Edwards will be president in 2008 (well, the last two have a way to go, in theory)

[Khor tose]

You should have asked the board first before betting. I would love to take some of your money away. Not only will Obama win, but by 5% at least. I will be in Thailand during the election and would be glad to have a dinner bet on it with anyone who feels the way you do. The losers treats to a fine meal at one of the better restaurants?

You should have asked the board first before betting.

The last time "the Board" expressed an opinion most were adamant the Democratic nomination* would go to Bill Clitoris' wife. Listening to what most people have to say won't make you a fortune. Most people in the finance industry did not believe there would be a financial crisis in the mortgage market. The favourite in horse-racing only wins one-third of the time. As we get closer to the election these political betting contests have a pretty good record of predicting the eventual winner - they are, after all, a two-horse race. However I bet against Mrs Clitoris before I'd even heard the name "Barack Obama", for the same reason I've bet against Obama now - on the balance of probabilities, she wouldn't win - too divisive. That John McCain probably will win fills me with horror, frankly. The fellow's experience in the armed forces, after all, is as a prisoner and he's even older than me. President Hopalong aside (and look how he ended up), the US presidency is a younger man's job

*or, as WhiteDesire would have it, "become the leader of the Democratic Party"

I think Obama will win and win big. The poles are way off for many reasons. Poles are based of past voting pattern data, and many things have changed in this election that poles have not, and are not, taking into account. Here are 3 huge reasons that the poles are way off. 1) Many, many people now have cell phones only. They tend to be younger and better educated that the general population and these are Obama people. Poles do not use cell phones to gather data; they only call hard wired home phones. 2) Younger people are going to be voting in much larger numbers that ever before, and they are very ready to move on to a post racial America and a post Bush America. They are very excited to vote for a black man as a statement of personal comittment to a post racial America....and to vote against their old dotering Grandfather McCain. Talking to young folks about McCain being a prisoner of war and a war hero is like telling them about the Roman Empire. Poles are based on past voting treads and do not include young people in the numbers that they will vote. 3) Vertually every black American over the age of 18 is now regestered to vote and will vote for Obama. Blacks have tipically had a low voter turn out and poles plan for a low black voter turn out.

I think Obama will win and win big. The poles are way off for many reasons. Poles are based of past voting pattern data

I didn't realise the natives of Poland were able to vote in this election. I guess Bush must have extended that right to them once they'd agreed to install his new missile defences in their country

[Khor tose]

Bush doesn't want a smarter man to succeed him, and make him look bad. After a long hard search he found some real dummies in the Kaczyński twins, who agreed to run for president if the Poles could vote in our election. If they win we will all have to polish our Polish.

However, Soi 10 Tom has done a great job of laying out what is going to occur in our next election.

The only sure bet in US elections (as in many other elections around the world) is that the least suitable person will end up in the White House. Is Terminator Arnie eligible to run in the future? Or does his Austrian birth preclude it?

His Austrian birth prevents him from running for President, although moves are already under way to get this clause in the constitution changed. Don't bet against this being done in order for him to be able to run in the 2012 election, especially if Obama wins in November.


George.

[Lunchtime O'Booze]

can he win ?..yes he most definitely will win..just as Al Gore won and John Kerry won..but lets face it..those voting machines by Diebold will fix the vote anyway and that creepy old McCain will probably romp in.

Doesn't matter though..the Neocon fantasy days are well and truly over and it's the end of the Republican era either now or the next 4 years..They are over , finished for decades to come.

Whatever happens..if Obama does win ( if they can nip the crooked voting machines in the bud ) I concur with the oracle..Gore Vidal..it's going to be a sad day when he is assisinated..

NB a bet on intrade ehh. I must bet the opposite if your track record is anything to go by.

.... Is Terminator Arnie eligible to run in the future? Or does his Austrian birth preclude it?

His Austrian birth prevents him from running for President, although moves are already under way to get this clause in the constitution changed. Don't bet against this being done in order for him to be able to run in the 2012 election, especially if Obama wins in November.


George.

Forget it.
There was "talk" about that a few years ago but it was just idle speculation fueled by a bored Press corps. Its not that easy to change the Constitution.
Besides, he's not (and never was) that popular in California. Right now he's in the middle of a big budget mess and his poll numbers are dropping as things drag on.

He may make a run for Senator against Boxer in 2010.

So what are the bookies odds that Obama will make First Lady, oops, President?

Go and look at www.intrade.com