The End Game?

[Brad the Impala]

PAD, Thaksin, and The military move into end-game mode
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation
Published on June 20, 2008


The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is going in for the kill.

The stage is set for yet another end game. The PAD plans to rally several tens of thousands of its supporters to seal Government House today. With support from the union members of state enterprises, the PAD seems confident it can overthrow the Samak government and catch Thaksin Shinawatra in the same net.

If the police fail to block the PAD from surrounding Government House, you can count the days before Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej announces his resignation. He can't use force to disperse the PAD crowd. But if he lets PAD hold him hostage inside Government House, there would be no point to him continuing to rule this country.


This is no ordinary time. Samak, the nominee prime minister, has outlived his usefulness. He might try to drag matters on, but pretty soon his reluctant backers, both the People Power Party and the coalition partners will pull the plug. Then the only option for Samak would be to find a graceful exit to save face.


What is in the mind of Thaksin then? He still holds as much power over Thailand as he does over Manchester City. Thaksin has only hinted that after July 2, the political situation should improve. One possibility is that Thaksin might be planning to have Parliament dissolved. This would bring the political turmoil, accentuated by the PAD rally, to an end, at least temporarily. Then there would be another election. The People Power Party would almost certainly make a comeback. The politicians under the People Power Party have been rather greedy with big projects - a good sign that they do not have much time left.


The Democrats must have a perfect read of this game. They hastily submitted a censure motion against Samak and seven of his Cabinet colleagues. Once House Speaker Chai Chidchob, places the censure motion into the Parliament's agenda, Samak would not be able to dissolve Parliament until the debate is concluded. The Democrats want to add salt to Samak's wounds first.


Or Thaksin might opt to have Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee succeed Samak as prime minister. To do so, Samak must be given an ultimatum that he cannot refuse. "Hey, after four months, isn't that long enough, Mr Prime Minister?" Thaksin might be tempted to utter.


But the PAD does not want to give Thaksin too much time or wait until July 2. Now the momentum is on its side. With huge support from the crowd, it would like to accelerate the end game by taking over Government House in order to force a drastic political change. It has warned authorities that its network of supporters nationwide, including the union members, will create an uprising if the police use force against them. The PAD is launching a style of people's revolution.


The role of Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda will be most crucial in this power play. Is he really neutral? Between the Samak Government and the PAD, whom does he back? And between Samak and Thaksin, which side does he take? Or is he really his own man?


At the moment, General Anupong is the country's most powerful person. The military is casting a dark shadow over the Samak government. Take the case of Jakrapob Penkair, the former PM's Office Minister, as an example. It was the military, who told Samak that Jakrapob must go otherwise it would show Jakrapob the way out with their top boots. Jakrapob's head rolled as a result.


Only Samak can declare a state of emergency if the PAD rally goes out of control. This would pave the way for Anupong to bring the military out of the barracks to bring the situation under control.


In 2006, while the PAD was sealing off Government House, Thaksin would have liked to declare a state of emergency to quash the PAD on the streets. But to do so, he would have needed cooperation of General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, then Army chief. But General Sonthi told Thaksin that he did not want to hurt the Thai people. Eventually, he went against Thaksin by staging a military coup to preempt the looming clashes between pro-Thaksin supporters and the PAD.


General Anupong is the key person to broker the political deal behind the scenes if the political crisis gets out of control.


He certainly does not want to stage a coup, nor does he wish to tear up the Constitution. Somehow there must be a political solution within the means of the current Constitution so that the country can move forward without too much pain.


Once again, he might need to resort to the tactic he used against Jakrapob by forcing politicians to accept a difficult deal that in normal circumstances they would have never agreed to buy.


Overall, at this point, Thais are totally in the dark as to what is going to happen next. But this time it is a consensus that all the conflict must be brought to a decisive end once and for all.



www.nationmultimedia.com/topstory/read.php?newsid=30075988

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[Brad the Impala]

Expect a Resignation Soon?

LIVE UPDATE
PM ends meeting with Army Chief
By The Nation

Follow today's tense political developments in our minute-by-minute report.


6:30 pm: Heavy Rains fall at the demonstration site but fail to disperse the overjoyed protesters.

5.17pm : PAD sets up two stages; at Nang Lueng Intersection and Chamai Mayurachet Bridge and were attended by a total of 50,000 protesters.

Chamlong Srimuang is leader of the stage at Nang Lueng Intersection while Somsak Kosaisuk at the Chamai Mayurachet Bridge.

Other PAD leaders, including Sondhi Limthongkul, Pipob Thongchai and Somkiet Pongpaibun, take turn to speak at both stages.

The weather is better compared to during the lunch time due to cooler wind.

4.20pm : PM ends meeting with Gen Anupong but he declined to speak to waiting journalists. Looking furiously, Samak got into his car. He switched his car when seeing that a group of journalists followed him.

4pm : PAD leaders set up a stage near Nang Lueng Horse Racing Stadium, starting criticising the government and praising their supporters.

Police guarding the areas have agreed to back off and withdraw police trucks from the area, allowing the protesters to gather.

3.25pm : Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej meets in an urgent meeting with Army Commander in Chief Gen Anupong Paojinda, Army Region I Commander Lt Gen Prayuth Chanorcha.

The meeting is held at the Army Club on on Viparangsit Road

3.10pm : Four police sergeants are slightly injured during the clash with protesters on Nakhon Pathom Road.

The police, including two female police, are now receiving medical treatment at Police Hospital. They are Pol Sgt Ponpiroon Tohlamjorn, 20, Pol Sgt Pojana Kaewketsri, 22, Pol Sgt Komsan Srikam, and Pol Sgt Sarawut Lertpon, both 40.

3.05pm : Chamlong Srimuang takes the stage in front of Nang Lueng Horse Racing Stadium, telling the protesters to stay calm and conflicts with each other. He tells the crowds to say "Thank" police for allowing them to move the protest.

2.35pm : After achieving in surrounding the Government House, the protesters try to move police trucks that formed the barricade in front of the Government House. However, police told the protesters that they will move the trucks themselves.

2.31pm: Protesters declare victory in surrounding the Government House. 2.30pm : Waving the red flags, some 500 opponents of PAD march to where the PAD-led protesters are gathering near the Government House.

2.13pm : Protesters have all but circled Government House, with police commandoes making ways for their advance. However, those standing guard inside Government House walls vow there won't be any compromise and nobody will be allowed to cross over.

Most of protesters who are on the front line, confronting with police, were seen wearing masks in preparation in case police wear tear gas to disperse them.

2.12pm : Protesters achieve in breaking the police line on Nakhon Pathom Road and move closer to the Government House. They are now besieging the Government House.

2.08pm: Police clash with protesters on Nakhon Pathom Road again as the protesters tried to break the police line.

12.15pm : People's Alliance for Democracy's leaders; Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul, and Somkiet Pongpaiboon (a Democrat MP) appear at the gathering of protesters at Nang Lueng horse racing stadium.

The stadium is less than 100 meters from the Government House. It seemed that Chamlong and other leaders sneak from the protest at Makawan Rangsan Bridge. The anti-government speeches at the Bridge continues.

1.29pm : Police re-erect the barricades which were scattered when the protesters break the police line.

1.27pm : PAD march reaches all police's inner barriers guarding Gov't House

About two hours of multi-pronged march, the People's Alliance for Democracy has managed to advance to inner barriers set up by police to guard Government House.

Tens of thousands of protesters are unarmed in the orderly march and about 5,000 anti-riot police, also unarmed, are deployed at barriers.

The main thrust led by Chamlong Srimuang and Sondhi Limthongkul has halted feet apart from the barrier at Nang Lerng. Anti-riot forces line up four deep behind iron dividers. After the police line, armoured vehicles are parked to deter the crowds.

Other main barriers are located at Makawan Rangsan Bridge, Misakawan Intersection, the Royal Plaza and the Marble Temple.

Few protesters have been seen to have sneaked pass barriers and reach Government House but not in significant numbers to lay siege.

1.22pm : Protesters at Benjamabophit Temple achieve in breaking police barricades and they are on Nakhon Pathom Road. Clashing with police continues.

12.42pm : Leaders of People's Alliance for Democracy : Chamlong Srimuang and Sondhi Limthongkul climb on top of truck and tell people to stick together and be united.

They ask the protesters to prepare to move their protest to the Government House.

11.56am : Sondhi Limthongkul makes a brief statement, urging people to remain calm and wait for the signal from the protest's leaders when to march from the Makawan Rangsan Bridge to the Government House.



11.45am - Chamlong Srimung gets on to a truck and start speaking to the cheering crowds. It is still unclear what he would do next.

Some of the protesters came faces to face with police who form ed a thick barricade to prevent the rally from moving from Makawan Rangsan Bridge to the Government House.

11.30am - A speaker on the stage warns people that the government may use tear gas to disperse the protest. He urges the protesters to remain calm and use cloth to be distributed to them to cover their nose and mouth.


www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/06/20/headlines/headlines_30076032.php

[piston10]

As a member who does not live in Thailand, I'm grateful to Brad for posting the two previous reports. Because I had not visited Thaivisa for several days and had seen no report in the English press about these events, I was sitting here believing that the most important goings-on in Thailand at the moement were the opening and closing of bars in Sunee and the ongoing farang/farang character assassinations. 'Cut-and-paste' they may be, but they are very welcome when you don't have daily access to The Nation and The Bangkok Post. (I'm not trying to start a discussion on this forum about the hourly-changing political situation; I'm just thankful it was brought to my attention. In any case, there's several nights of reading and every opinion to be found on Thaivisa!)

[fedssocr]

it's easy to keep up to date on what's happening over there by checking the BKK Post and The Nation on the web. I check the news every day.

I sort of wonder what PAD's plan is. Even if Samak quits it's not like the PPP just disappears. The latest I saw was Thaksin plans to have his brother in law installed as PM once they get rid of Samak. That would arguably be a worse situation for PAD.

I am currently reading "A History of Thailand" by Chris Baker and Pasuk Phongpaichit. It is interesting to see how history repeats itself. I am only about halfway through but definitely recommend it. Very little of it is devoted to the pre-Bangkok period and the bulk is focused on the 20th century. It is very well researched and apparently the first English language history since the 80s.

[TrongpaiExpat]

Read 'that book' you can't buy in Thailand. It's well researched as well and pretty much covers history from 1932 on from a certain perspective that I should not comment about here.

Things were pretty tense yesterday in Bangkok. I stayed away from ground zero but even on the other end of town, I noticed that security was on guard. On the MRT they were carefully searching bags and I noticed more police in the stations than usual. One of the high rise building I entered even had a security check point where usually there is none. At one of the shopping centers, I had to go through two security check stations.

[Brad the Impala]

MOVE ON GOVERNMENT HOUSE
Violence averted as PAD leaders claim easy victory
By The Nation
Published on June 21, 2008


Pressure mounts for Samak to resign


As several tens of thousands of supporters of the People's Alliance for Democracy savour an easy victory with their success in surrounding Government House, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is under pressure to resign.


Political sources said Thaksin Shinawatra and the core leaders of the People Power Party have agreed that Samak should step down to pave the way for Education Minister Somchai Wongswat, a brother-in-law of Thaksin, to succeed him.


Samak held a tense, hour-long meeting in the afternoon with Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, police chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan and Lt-General Prayuth Chan-ocha, commander of the First Army Region, at the Army Sports Club on Vibhavadi-Rangsit Road.


Sources said Samak was very annoyed with the police, who failed to prevent the PAD from surrounding the heart of his administration.


Samak and top military and police officials discussed the scope of the Emergency Decree and the Internal Security Act, but in the end Anupong and Prayuth signalled that Samak should make his own decision.


Chamlong Srimuang, one of the core leaders of the PAD, vowed to encamp the protesters in front of Government House until Samak resigned "because he is acting as a nominee for ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra".


Police and security officials made little effort to block the protesters from surrounding the seat of government, despite warning earlier that they might use tear gas and plastic bullets.


The PAD quickly set up a new stage in front of Government House to hold their rallies, moving from Makhawan Rangsan Bridge. The PAD has been staging street demonstrations since May 25.


The police chief instructed his officers and security forces not to use force against the protesters. They will stop encroachment on Government House, but PAD leaders have said they will only camp around it.


Police estimated the crowd numbers at more than 22,000 but PAD supporters said they could be as many as 100,000. The PAD held a rally against Thaksin in front of Government House in 2006, which eventually led to the military coup.


Political sources indicate there will be a political solution to end the turmoil in the next few days, but it is not yet certain a formula satisfactory to all parties can be found.


Thai shares yesterday rallied 3.56 per cent, the largest single-day surge in five months, as hedge funds unwound positions on hopes that there would be no violence at the anti-government protest.


Jatuporn Prompan, an MP from the People Power Party, said he was afraid bloodshed was inevitable. "The PAD has no choice. They want to create chaos so that the military could come out to stage another coup."


Inside the People Power Party, Thaksin is reported to have signalled to Yongyuth Tiyapairat, deputy leader Newin Chidchob, Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan and Sora-at Klinprathum that they should monitor the situation closely in case Samak decides to step down under political pressure.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/06/21/headlines/headlines_30076106.php

[fedssocr]

Read 'that book' you can't buy in Thailand. It's well researched as well and pretty much covers history from 1932 on from a certain perspective that I should not comment about here.

I considered buying "that book". I have read a number of very mixed reviews of it. Some day I probably will. But next up is "Very Thai" a book about Thai pop culture and an exploration of why Thais do the things they do. It was written by the guy who does the Time Out Bangkok book and has lived there a long time running some magazine or other. I guess it was extensively researched as well. He talked to experts on all sorts of subjects and it is full of beautiful photos as well. It cost me a small fortune because it is apparently no longer in print. But it is published in Thailand so those of you who are there may be able to find a copy.

"Mixed Review"??????? What's the mix? The Thai government tried in vain to block Yale University Press from publishing "The Book". Yale fact checked the book and every fact in the book checked out, so the book was published by one of the most reputable presses in the world. So, what is the mixed review...some one didn't like the writing style??? Or perhaps the facts were inconvenient???

One can not, I repeat CAN NOT, be informed or educated about what goes in Thai politics and government without reading "The Book." Each coup follows a pretty clear pattern, and the pattern has begun. The only question is how many, if any, will die when the Army moves in the name of "Unity." There is no question about who wins...the royalist always win.

Yale University Press publishes a lot of stuff: most of it is "good" academic fluff, but some of it is nonsense.

But, on the whole, it is pretty good.

Now, to your next point: have you never considered the possibility that a person could write a book in which every single sentence was completely true and "fact-based," but nevertheless produce a book which was a lie?

Well, sleeper, awake! :-) This is called "selective presentation of the facts" and is one of the oldest rhetorical tricks in the book.

I mean, how would you feel if I wrote a long essay about you, and ONLY included the parts you would rather not talk about? It would all be true, true, true -- but the end result would be a Big Lie.

As far as "mixed reviews" go, I have "The Book" and have read some of it, but I have spent far more time wondering why the author used TWELVE YEARS of his life to dig up dirt on the most popular and beloved King on Planet Earth, and just couldn't be bothered to look into (say) Burma, or China, or Cuba. I mean, if you're going to dig up dirt -- go where the dirt is. In particular, China.

There are some 60 million corpses there.

[Hmmm]

Firstly, the book is 'The King Never Smiles', by Paul Handley. We discuss the royal family relatively openly here (rather than censoring all such discussion in order to protect their business, like Thaivisa), just as we discuss other royalty and political leaders.

The only sense in which one could deem the book's reception to be 'mixed' would be if you included the Thai blog respondents who, almost universally, have not read the book, but simply contend that no farang could possibly understand HMK and that any attempt to do so is, by definition, an insult to the Thai people.

The latest wikipedia entry for the book is a nice summary of the minor differences of opinion in academic circles regarding some of Handley's interpretations. But on the whole Thai studies scholars have commended the book highly, perhaps a little guilty and jealous that they didn't have the guts to write it themselves. Handley is a journalist who was based in Thailand, not an academic, but the book's sources are heavily referenced.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_King_Never_Smiles

The only really negative review came from the author of the silly and error-riddled hagiography of HMK that pre-dated Handley, William Stevenson. Handley, like everyone else, more or less ridiculed Stevenson's book.

Most of the rest of us who have now read what many Thai insiders / Thai studies scholars knew but rarely talked about now view Thailand through a different lens, and think of our understanding of Thailand as 'pre-Handley' and 'post-Handley'.

Amazon's site for the book as been reported as now unblocked in Thailand, and a number of people have had the book imported from Amazon into Thailand. It is apparently in a number of Thai university libraries.