PAD, Thaksin, and The military move into end-game mode
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation
Published on June 20, 2008


The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is going in for the kill.

The stage is set for yet another end game. The PAD plans to rally several tens of thousands of its supporters to seal Government House today. With support from the union members of state enterprises, the PAD seems confident it can overthrow the Samak government and catch Thaksin Shinawatra in the same net.

If the police fail to block the PAD from surrounding Government House, you can count the days before Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej announces his resignation. He can't use force to disperse the PAD crowd. But if he lets PAD hold him hostage inside Government House, there would be no point to him continuing to rule this country.


This is no ordinary time. Samak, the nominee prime minister, has outlived his usefulness. He might try to drag matters on, but pretty soon his reluctant backers, both the People Power Party and the coalition partners will pull the plug. Then the only option for Samak would be to find a graceful exit to save face.


What is in the mind of Thaksin then? He still holds as much power over Thailand as he does over Manchester City. Thaksin has only hinted that after July 2, the political situation should improve. One possibility is that Thaksin might be planning to have Parliament dissolved. This would bring the political turmoil, accentuated by the PAD rally, to an end, at least temporarily. Then there would be another election. The People Power Party would almost certainly make a comeback. The politicians under the People Power Party have been rather greedy with big projects - a good sign that they do not have much time left.


The Democrats must have a perfect read of this game. They hastily submitted a censure motion against Samak and seven of his Cabinet colleagues. Once House Speaker Chai Chidchob, places the censure motion into the Parliament's agenda, Samak would not be able to dissolve Parliament until the debate is concluded. The Democrats want to add salt to Samak's wounds first.


Or Thaksin might opt to have Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee succeed Samak as prime minister. To do so, Samak must be given an ultimatum that he cannot refuse. "Hey, after four months, isn't that long enough, Mr Prime Minister?" Thaksin might be tempted to utter.


But the PAD does not want to give Thaksin too much time or wait until July 2. Now the momentum is on its side. With huge support from the crowd, it would like to accelerate the end game by taking over Government House in order to force a drastic political change. It has warned authorities that its network of supporters nationwide, including the union members, will create an uprising if the police use force against them. The PAD is launching a style of people's revolution.


The role of Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda will be most crucial in this power play. Is he really neutral? Between the Samak Government and the PAD, whom does he back? And between Samak and Thaksin, which side does he take? Or is he really his own man?


At the moment, General Anupong is the country's most powerful person. The military is casting a dark shadow over the Samak government. Take the case of Jakrapob Penkair, the former PM's Office Minister, as an example. It was the military, who told Samak that Jakrapob must go otherwise it would show Jakrapob the way out with their top boots. Jakrapob's head rolled as a result.


Only Samak can declare a state of emergency if the PAD rally goes out of control. This would pave the way for Anupong to bring the military out of the barracks to bring the situation under control.


In 2006, while the PAD was sealing off Government House, Thaksin would have liked to declare a state of emergency to quash the PAD on the streets. But to do so, he would have needed cooperation of General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, then Army chief. But General Sonthi told Thaksin that he did not want to hurt the Thai people. Eventually, he went against Thaksin by staging a military coup to preempt the looming clashes between pro-Thaksin supporters and the PAD.


General Anupong is the key person to broker the political deal behind the scenes if the political crisis gets out of control.


He certainly does not want to stage a coup, nor does he wish to tear up the Constitution. Somehow there must be a political solution within the means of the current Constitution so that the country can move forward without too much pain.


Once again, he might need to resort to the tactic he used against Jakrapob by forcing politicians to accept a difficult deal that in normal circumstances they would have never agreed to buy.


Overall, at this point, Thais are totally in the dark as to what is going to happen next. But this time it is a consensus that all the conflict must be brought to a decisive end once and for all.



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