Retiring in Thailand and your Pension

This is heart-thumping volatity like I've never seen before and wonder if it is a prelude to certain economic disasters (October '07 is near) as a direct result of Bush's Iraq war and "laissez faire" economic policies particulary globalization on the basis of no improvements in human rights conditions, and Chinese food poisoning wjhich have hit Thailand's shores as well. Hillary Clinton said of Bush's legacy through '08: "you ain't seen nothing yet". I'd be selling now through Thankgiving aqnd picking up the pieces after the '08 election,

Rather than having a mico view of the worlds markets one should have a big picture view. News medias make their money with viewers/buyers so they constantly engage in the use of superlatives that have become meaningless: "crash"wobbly" "big falls" "bubble burst" in today's news environment mean nothing, but they do get dummies to watch or read their trash.

The big picture view is that the American dollar is going to decline in value against most every other currency in the world, and America's exports will continue to shrink. China and all of Asia are rising. If you are interested in investing in today's world: first move your cash and investment portfolios out of US Dollars and markets. Then move your investment portfolio into some of the better Asian ETFs...and move your cash dollars to diversified foreign Banks with decent percentage yields.

Hell my Thai bank account has gone up 20% against the US Dollar and Thai banks pay no interest.

And stop all of this "Chicken Little" stuff about the sky falling every time the US markets' fart.

[Impulse]

Soi tom,your right on about the use of wording these journalist use.It makes me sick when they say,"soar,crash",etc. Unfortunatly,I also agree that Asia is where the growth will be and is where your money should be.Timing is important and the asian stock markets are very high at these levels,they have been returning about 30% a year for the last 4 or 5 years.How long can they maintain this pace is a question.India and china are growing like mad but Im not buying funds in them at these prices. Also,I had a friend who worked in Thailand during the 98 meltdown and his bank account was cut in half overnight then. Having said that,I bought a studio in Thailand so I have a place to live when I retire there,and its gone up because of the weakening dollar.Im trying for 20% a year in equities just to keep up with the crap us dollar.Over time,everything goes up because of inflation,inflation is the enemy of us all.Just look at a chart of the dow jones average ,from 1980 on it looks parabolic,same with real estate.Thats why I dont like bonds,they arnt effective against inflation.I would and am personaly planning on staying in stocks after I retire because of the ravages of inflation. Dont listen to my advise,seek a professional.jmho Rocket(who trades stocks almost everyday and is never satisfied with his results)

[ned kelly-old]

It's amazing how the bullshit flows when it comes to investing, although I guess it shows why so many need good advice.
"Raksiam" is correct...........over time equities out perform all other investment classes, so no matter whether your about to retire, are already retired or are years away from it, if you want to maximise your investment nest egg you need a major portion in equities.
Sure there will be volatility, there always has been and it ain't likely to change! But if you don't have to sell anything you've lost nothing. Even if your paying a pension from these investments it should represent only a small portion and if your lucky may even be largely covered by dividends.
Exchange rates are a lot more problematical, and are certainly important for self funded retirees who live in a different country from their income source. By and large you have to wear these. Economic forecasters have been consistently unreliable when it comes to FX. As for its rate against sterling, the $US, Euro or $A in the future....NO ONE knows. As mentioned in a previous post the $A has lost 10% against the baht in a week!.........Mai Pen Rai.

There is NO Asian econmic miracle! Its all another bubble funded by a) cheap Yen fueling the "yen carry trade" which is starting to unwind and b) the great American "credit card" which is now maxed out. China ("Red" China not the ROC) is nothing but a house of cards, backed up by worthless American debt obligations and run by incompetent Communist Party apparachniks.
This "correction" is not going to stop at 10%

That's the Bad News. The Good News is in a year or 2 there will be buying opportunities galore.

What really pisses me off is everything is getting hammered right now - even my gold stocks :crybaby:

[Impulse]

Kenc,what gold stocks do you own? I just bought AU,the Austrailian gold stock as Ive made money on it in the past.The moment of truth is arriving for commoditie stocks,Is there a worldwide slowdown on the horizon or will it be continued growth? I probably have too large a % of my account in gold stocks,but Ill be out of them quickly if they make new lows. Rocket(who loves gold)

[Hmmm]

As mentioned in a previous post the $A has lost 10% against the baht in a week!......

The AUD$ has not lost 10% against the baht in the last week (or longer). It has lost almost 10% against the US$ in the last week but is essentially unchanged against the THB. The US$ has been appreciating against the THB again lately, since the beginning of the month.
http://www.oanda.com/products/fxgraph/fxgraph.shtml

[ned kelly-old]

Give or take a day, mid-rate on kasikorn on shore rate was $A=29.4 baht last week.
This morning mid-rate is 26.28. This is a drop of 10.6%.

Kenc,what gold stocks do you own? I just bought AU,the Austrailian gold stock as Ive made money on it in the past.The moment of truth is arriving for commoditie stocks,Is there a worldwide slowdown on the horizon or will it be continued growth? I probably have too large a % of my account in gold stocks,but Ill be out of them quickly if they make new lows. Rocket(who loves gold)

I should have said gold funds, not stocks.
It's my bet against the US$

But alas, as I said everything is falling right now.

Seriously considering the Euro and esp the Yen. As the carry-trade unwinds the Yen will soar.

[Hmmm]

Give or take a day, mid-rate on kasikorn on shore rate was $A=29.4 baht last week.
This morning mid-rate is 26.28. This is a drop of 10.6%.

Daily interbank rate for AUD$ vs THB in August
08/01/2007 25.85260000
08/02/2007 25.60550000
08/03/2007 25.74090000
08/04/2007 25.80620000
08/05/2007 25.74330000
08/06/2007 25.74330000
08/07/2007 25.84370000
08/08/2007 25.91920000
08/09/2007 26.24720000
08/10/2007 26.61910000
08/11/2007 26.34200000
08/12/2007 26.40770000
08/13/2007 26.40560000
08/14/2007 26.71820000
08/15/2007 26.60170000
08/16/2007 26.97530000
08/17/2007 26.44890000
08/18/2007 26.30870000

Average (18 days): 26.18495
High: 26.97530
Low: 25.60550

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory? ... directed=1