The Brink of War?

[cdnmatt]

Not that much as it is declared. Few countries are talking about sanctions. There is no news - they spoke about sanctions last half of the year, even about "preventive sanctions".

The invasion just started literally a few hours ago. How do you possibly know how this is going to go down?

[Moses]

The invasion just started literally a few hours ago. How do you possibly know how this is going to go down?

nobody knows what exactly it will be, but there are no substitutions for Russian gas, titanium and grain. So sanctions will avoid these sectors and that will be subject of bargain btw Russia and West - what West will scarify in exchange. Economic will speak loudly than politic - every govt thinks about next elections and nobody wants to let voters to be cold, hungry and angry because of that, especially when next elected govt may be pro-Russian right wing.

There will be a lot of words about how bad is Russia, but Russia isn't Iraq, too much regional economics depends on Russia. So there will be a lot of diplomacy under carpet and as result situation will be calmed very soon by historical scale: Turkey still keeps half of Cyprus, 50 years soon.

[Dodger]

Not that much as it is declared. Few countries are talking about sanctions. There is no news - they spoke about sanctions last half of the year, even about "preventive sanctions".

Watch the news tomorrow morning Russia time.

Just a guess, but it looks like more than just a few countries are going to be imposing sanctions. I've been surfing CNBC, BBC, CNN. and Al Jazeera here in Thailand all afternoon and you won't believe the level of sanctions they're talking about...and it's more than just a few countries. Sounds real nasty.

Again, as I've been saying all along, all we can do is pray for a last-minute diplomatic solution to de-fuse Putin before more innocent people start getting killed. They're already reporting heavy military fatalities on both sides and the war just started.

I need a corona and a joint.

[cdnmatt]

Unfortunately, doesn't seem to be any way to kick Russia off the UN Security Council.

[Moses]

Sounds real nasty.

There will be a lot of words about how bad is Russia, but Russia isn't Iraq, too much regional economics depends on Russia. So there will be a lot of diplomacy under carpet and as result situation will be calmed very soon by historical scale: Turkey still keeps half of Cyprus, 50 years soon.

I'm cynic and realist.

Me personally don't like what's going on. A lot of Russian newsmakers are talking now what it is wrong step. But geopolitics are geopolitics and as result half of Cyprus is still occupped by Turkey and UK. Ukraine isn't subject but is object in that game.

I hope for "Georgian variant'2008". As result current Ukrainian president will lost his chair, new govt will include interests of own Russian entice group, has cooperation with Russia in own plans and will be less depends on West's opinions.

[StevieWonders]

I'm cynic and realist. .

I’m a sceptic and a cynic; many people get the two confused

[cdnmatt]

That's it, now there's PHP developers out there calling for the boycott of the PHP Russia conference.

Putin's really in trouble now, haha.

[RonanTheBarbarian]

Putin may succeed in installing a pro-Russian quisling government in Ukraine, but in the long term Russia will be the loser in this.

At the moment Putin is unlikely to cut off Europe from its natural gas, as he needs the money. Particularly as the amount of natural gas he can sell will be less than would have been expected anyway, presuming that the Ukrainian lines will be cut and Nordstream 2 will never start.

What will be the immediate shortages and issues for Western Europe from the invasion?

The main strategic exports of Russia and Ukraine are oil, gas and wheat. The EU is more or less self-sufficient in grain, the real sufferers of a wheat export collapse will be countries like Turkey, Egypt and Iraq.

But there is a very good chance that Western (and later central) Europe will now get itself organised to start importing enough liquid natural gas from the USA and Qatar to cover their needs. I’m not certain this will happen, Germany is so addicted to cheap Russian gas that it’s hard to be certain what they will do, but the shock of the current crisis may induce even Germany to give it up.

When that happens, Putin may be left just supplying his gas for half-nothing to the quisling government in Ukraine (I am sure that cheap gas will be the least that they demand). If he wants a decent price he will be faced with the challenge of transporting his gas from the European Arctic thousands of miles to China.

Less profitable,and Putin will also have lost all his leverage with Western Europe. So he might win Ukraine, but it will be a strategic failure for a Putin.

(And I’m not presuming that he will gain a definite victory in Ukraine. Obviously Russian forces are more powerful, but he could get bogged down in a long grinding campaign there if the Ukrainians hold out in western Ukraine)

[Moses]

The main strategic exports of Russia and Ukraine are oil, gas and wheat. The EU is more or less self-sufficient in grain, the real sufferers of a wheat export collapse will be countries like Turkey, Egypt and Iraq.

Russia controls 17-20% of world wheat trade, North Africa will be in big troubles because there are not enough wheat to substitute it at least in this year.

But there is a very good chance that Western (and later central) Europe will now get itself organised to start importing enough liquid natural gas from the USA and Qatar to cover their needs. I’m not certain this will happen, Germany is so addicted to cheap Russian gas that it’s hard to be certain what they will do, but the shock of the current crisis may induce even Germany to give it up.

If EU will contract all not contracted yet gas in World then it will cover only 2/3 of demands and prices will rocketing very high. Also farmers will be in huge troubles because 80% of gas is used for fertilizers production. And here you will find what Russia controls 40% of ammonium market. Then see my note above about wheat.

Russia exports more gas than Norway and Canada together. 24 times more than United Arab Emirates.

Here are the 10 countries with the highest natural gas production:
Russia (47,805 billion cubic meters)
Iran (33,721 billion cubic meters)
Qatar (24,072 billion cubic meters)
United States (15,484 billion cubic meters)
Saudi Arabia (9,200 billion cubic meters)
Turkmenistan (7,504 billion cubic meters)
United Arab Emirates (6,091 billion cubic meters)
Venezuela (5,740 billion cubic meters)
Nigeria (5,475 billion cubic meters)
China (5,440 billion cubic meters)

When that happens, Putin may be left just supplying his gas for half-nothing to the quisling government in Ukraine (I am sure that cheap gas will be the least that they demand). If he wants a decent price he will be faced with the challenge of transporting his gas from the European Arctic thousands of miles to China.

Less profitable,and Putin will also have lost all his leverage with Western Europe. So he might win Ukraine, but it will be a strategic failure for a Putin.

If you will open Google map and check distance then you will find what measured path to China and Koreas, to Japan is shorter from Sabetta (new port on the North of Russia), than from Qatar not mention US. And Russia now has in Sabetta 15 huge ice breaking gas tankers + 8 nuclear powered icebreakers. Also Russia has 2 working gas pipes to China from Eastern Siberia (google Power of Siberia gas pipeline) and third is close to start to work.

Sabetta:



Icebreaker:



Gas tanker for to use in ice



So news about "less profit" and "leverage" are quite fake.

[StevieWonders]

Like most people, I hope this problem can be resolved diplomatically, but that's starting to look extremely doubtful (what and understatement).

I’m looking forward to Dodger’s full throated embrace of Enlightenment values