====In the 500 or so days since the beginning of the "special military operation" that was supposed to be over in less than a week, the Russian forces have failed not only to overcome and disarm the Ukrainian forces, they show no signs of destroying the Ukrainian forces, occupying the country, or in breaking the will of the Ukrainian people.===
Do you want to discuss 20 years of US war in Afghanistan?
Bali (Indonesia), Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos: gay guides and companions http://siamroads.com
===Since the West publicly bragged about how much military gear it will be sending Ukraine and when, Russia had months to dig in defensively. Russia doesn't even seem to be bothering with offensive operations right now. The chances of Russia being able to take and hold Kiev are about 0. Ok, not about 0, exactly 0.====
Should it? Russia stays on position, destroys onу by one Ukrainian battalions and Western military machines. 50% of Ukrainian power supply network is laying in ruins, 30% of supplied tanks and artillery is trash now. Western sponsors of war are discouraged, support of Ukraine is going down (in last package about 70% of support are loans and credits instead of donations), meanwhile Russia got new lands and is still stable.
If West wants to have this war in style "till the last Ukrainian" then Ok, nobody cares here.
If you sit by the river for long enough, you will see the body of your enemy float by.
Bali (Indonesia), Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos: gay guides and companions http://siamroads.com
Sure, although I'm not American and the same rationale for Russia's invasion of Ukraine does not apply.Originally Posted by Moses
But only if you want to discuss the Soviet Union's 10-year involvement in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, or its 1939 invasion of Finland first, or its failures in the Polish–Soviet War (1919–21) and in the independence wars for Estonia (1918–20), Latvia (1918–20) and Lithuania (1918–19), remembering that the Russian Federation is legally regarded as the USSR's successor, which is why it automatically succeeded to its UN seat, including its permanent membership on the Security Council after the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, which originally co-founded the UN in 1945.
What is interesting is that Soviet strategists/Russian Marxists are reported to have studied Clausewitz with care, and have appropriated his ideas, and even his actual words, very freely (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...oviet-strategy). Moreover, Clausewitz also examined the Russo-Turkish War of 1736–1739, a precursor to the latter annexation of Crimea, in which he described Imperial Russian unpreparedness in terms similar to the current conditions (https://www.realcleardefense.com/art...ay_885101.html).
In reality, journalists at the independent Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazone, who collaborated with a university statistician to analyze publicly accessible records, claim the number of Russian fatalities so far is three times the number of Soviet troops killed in more than 10 years of war in Afghanistan. The journalists stated that, “By our calculations, as of late May 2023, roughly 47,000 Russian men under the age of 50 have died in the war. To be absolutely precise, we can assert with a 95% probability that the true number of casualties falls between 40,000 and 55,000. This estimate does not take into account the losses of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR)” (https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats).
The Economist (https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ied-in-ukraine) carried an interesting graph illustrating the expansion in the gender gap in inheritance filings in weekly probate cases for 20- to 24-year-old for men and women. The loss of these young men will have for-reaching implications for Russia’s future, which means that somebody will care. Statistica reported that the gap between the number of women and men in Russia was measured at 10.25 million as of January 1, 2022, with the female population of the country historically outnumbering the male population (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...der-age-group/). The gap is widening, and is presently at about current male population at 46.3%, and current female population at 53.7% of total population.
Al Jazeera reported that Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 total casualties, including 15,500 to 17,500 killed in action and 109,000 to 113,500 wounded in action, according to the document titled, “Russia/Ukraine – Assessed Combat Sustainability and Attrition” (April 12, 2023), acknowledging that the figures are approximately 10 times larger than any public casualty figure published by either Moscow or Kyiv (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...d-us-documents).
The number of Russian deaths, therefore is somewhere between 2 and 3 to 1 in favour of the Ukrainians.
With regard to equipment losses, so far in its Ukrainian invasion, the Russian Federation has also lost more than 11146 pieces of military equipment (of which: destroyed: 7459, damaged: 425, abandoned: 422, captured: 2840) (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html) according to the Dutch open-source intelligence website Oryx, which has been collecting visual evidence of military equipment losses in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began.
In contrast, Oryx estimates Ukrainian equipment losses at 3892, of which: destroyed: 2549, damaged: 274, abandoned: 135, captured: 924 (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html). Some of these losses have been made up by repairing captured Russian equipment, though.
Other reports suggest that only 40% of Ukraine's power supply has been destroyed.
As the Dnieper River passes through both Ukraine and Russia, which country supplies the most corpses is still being determined.
Reality is complicated and troublesome.
While Erdogan's green light was crucial, Turkey's parliament still needs to ratify the accession. When the agreement between Sweden, Turkey and NATO was announced on Monday, July 10, no precise date was given for the vote. "As soon as possible", NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters.
The Turkish parliament's programme ends on July 18 according to the official timetable, and it is not expected to resume its session until September.
Hungary, the other remaining member of NATO's 31 allies still to ratify Sweden's entry, has made it clear that it will not delay the issue any further. Ratification is "only a technical question," Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Tuesday.
Based on these acknowledgements it appears as if Sweden's entry into NATO will be fully ratified in the September time frame.
Turkey's desire to enter the EU did not appear to be one of the bargaining chips...but the sale of U.S. made F-16 fighter jets to Turkey was. Turkey may have to wait until hell freezes over to gain entry into the EU (and I personally hope they do) - but Sweden will be entering NATO in a matter of weeks which is cause for celebration.
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (commonly called AKP in English) and its allies control 323 seats in Turkey's Grand National Assembly, and the Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNAT) is the AKP's Deputy Chairman. Erdogan controls enough votes to get Sweden's accession to NATO passed, through probably not until October.
Do you even hear yourself? How are you going to get the Nazis then?
Moreso, what was the point of this whole war then? So the Russian military can hang out in trenches in eastern Ukraine for a few years?
October sounds good!
===Based on these acknowledgements it appears as if Sweden's entry into NATO will be fully ratified in the September time frame.===
===Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (commonly called AKP in English) and its allies control 323 seats in Turkey's Grand National Assembly, and the Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNAT) is the AKP's Deputy Chairman. Erdogan controls enough votes to get Sweden's accession to NATO passed, through probably not until October.===
So, September or October?
Propaganda promises a lot
Erdogan may do, but will he?
Once again:
Few months ago:"First, let's pave the way for Türkiye in the EU, and then we will pave the way for Sweden just as we did for Finland."
1671871556244.jpg
July 2023:
1689412946031.jpg
Bali (Indonesia), Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos: gay guides and companions http://siamroads.com
Erdogan has been quoted as making the statement you posted, but it has to be put in context. Erdogan has also been reported (speaking in Turkish on three separate occasions) as not directly linking Sweden’s NATO accession to Turkey’s EU accession. He is reported as making the following three points in all his three declarations before and after meeting in Vilnius:===Based on these acknowledgements it appears as if Sweden's entry into NATO will be fully ratified in the September time frame.===
===Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (commonly called AKP in English) and its allies control 323 seats in Turkey's Grand National Assembly, and the Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNAT) is the AKP's Deputy Chairman. Erdogan controls enough votes to get Sweden's accession to NATO passed, through probably not until October.===
So, September or October?
Propaganda promises a lot
Erdogan may do, but will he?
Once again:
(1) He would, unconditionally, submit the Sweden’s NATO accession to a vote in the Turkish parliament, adding the caveat that he would only accept it as a done deal once the Turkish parliament approves it.
(2) He said that Turkey is waiting for EU candidacy for a long time, despite being a member of the European Council. He made this comment for the reason that he believes Turkey is not fairly treated, but he agrees for Sweden to join NATO for the peace in the world.
(3) He said that the US administration linked the renewal of Turkish F-16’s to Sweden’s NATO accession, and he hoped that this will fare positively.
As usual, however, we will have to wait to see what eventuates, bearing in mind that NATO is a military alliance, while the EU is an economic union. They have differing requirements for membership, as Erdogan is probably aware.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
