The Brink of War?

[Moses]

What are you talking about? Putin's goal was to weaken NATO, if not straight out invade various European countries. Instead, the NATO-Russia border has more than doubled since the beginning of the Ukraine war.

Dear, Erdogan will keep Sweden on short rope, and until Turkey will be accepted in EU as a member, no Sweden will be in NATO. So now again one more "roadmap" how Sweden will fight with Kurdish opposition (they will not) who is living is Sweden.. Don't expect Sweden will be in NATO soon.
Turkey is waiting over 30 year for EU membership. So will Sweden.

[cdnmatt]

Dear, Erdogan will keep Sweden on short rope, and until Turkey will be accepted in EU as a member, no Sweden will be in NATO.

Turkey already took the EU requirement off the table, almost the same day he tried to add it on. Sweden has already met all of Turkey's other conditions, and Turkey has said it will grant Sweden's membership.

As for "short leash", that doesn't even make sense as it's not a thing. Being a NATO member is a pretty binary thing -- either you are or you aren't, there's no middle ground. If a "short leash" was possible within NATO guaranteed Turkey would be on it due to its abysmal human rights record, but they're not, because it doesn't exist.

I think you may want to prepare yourself for the fact that Russia is eventually going to lose this war, and when they do, Russia may collapse again circa 1991. Went from Soviet Union down to modern day Russia, and you might be getting smaller. Not sure where in Russia you are, but hey, you might be in a brand new country once this is all over.

[Dragonman]

Dear, Erdogan will keep Sweden on short rope, and until Turkey will be accepted in EU as a member, no Sweden will be in NATO. So now again one more "roadmap" how Sweden will fight with Kurdish opposition (they will not) who is living is Sweden.. Don't expect Sweden will be in NATO soon.
Turkey is waiting over 30 year for EU membership. So will Sweden.

Given that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated (July 10) that "Sweden, in return for Erdogan’s support, addressed Turkey’s security concerns and “significantly expanded” its counter-terrorism efforts against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and would help Turkey enter the E.U." (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbu...h=42b7a483511f), both countries will wait significantly less than 30 years, maybe even less than 30 months, to see their wishes granted.

[cdnmatt]

I know Turkey really wants to get into the EU due to its current economic troubles, but I think they'll be waiting awhile. Both, human rights record and democratic institutions aren't exactly up to snuff.

[arsenal]

Right now the war has shifted in favour of Russia.

The Spring Offensive Zelensky promised never materialised.

The delivery of cluster bombs from the US is proof the Russian fortifications are beyond anything the Ukrainians have.

Potentially worse are the clear signs the West is tiring of bankrolling this with seemingly no end in sight.

Ben Wallace's pointed comments probably speak for many countries feelings.

[cdnmatt]

Right now the war has shifted in favour of Russia.

The Spring Offensive Zelensky promised never materialised.

The delivery of cluster bombs from the US is proof the Russian fortifications are beyond anything the Ukrainians have.

Potentially worse are the clear signs the West is tiring of bankrolling this with seemingly no end in sight.

Ben Wallace's pointed comments probably speak for many countries feelings.

Wouldn't say that. I'm quite confident the West will keep the pressure up, as the West has learned from WWII that threats like Russia can't be left unattended. For example, Germany invaded Poland on Sept 1st, 1939. London was first bombed a simple year later on Sept 7th, 1940.

The West knows Putin has ambitions outside of Ukraine, so I would expect the West to continue bank rollling the Ukraine war so the war doesn't end up in central Europe and possibley beyond.

Russia is also hurting right now in almost all areas -- seem to be running out of soldiers, weapons running low and for example there's reports of T34 tanks being seen roaming around Ukraine, sanctions are starting to bite hard, ruble has been falling lately, gas revenue from EUeope has now all but dried up, et al.

[Moses]

====I think you may want to prepare yourself for the fact that Russia is eventually going to lose this war, and when they do, Russia may collapse again circa 1991. Went from Soviet Union down to modern day Russia, and you might be getting smaller. Not sure where in Russia you are, but hey, you might be in a brand new country once this is all over.=====

Matt, you already predicted "default" of Russia at least 5 times in this thread.

Your dreams are zero coherent with reality. And reality is: in 2023 even under sanctions inflation in Russia is lower than in most Western countries, GDP is rising more than in most Western countries.

[Moses]

Given that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated (July 10) that "Sweden, in return for Erdogan’s support, addressed Turkey’s security concerns and “significantly expanded” its counter-terrorism efforts against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and would help Turkey enter the E.U." (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbu...h=42b7a483511f), both countries will wait significantly less than 30 years, maybe even less than 30 months, to see their wishes granted.

Position of Erdogan is clearly stated exactly on July 10:

"First, let's pave the way for Türkiye in the EU, and then we will pave the way for Sweden just as we did for Finland."

https://www.trtworld.com/turkiye/erd...o-bid-13978303

[Dragonman]

The Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote "If . . . we consider the pure concept of war . . . . its aim would have always and solely to be to overcome the enemy and disarm him." This encompasses "three broad objectives, which between them cover everything: destroying the enemy's armed forces; occupying his country; and breaking his will to continue the struggle" (Michael Howard/Peter Paret translation, Princeton University Press, 1976/84, page 90).

In the 500 or so days since the beginning of the "special military operation" that was supposed to be over in less than a week, the Russian forces have failed not only to overcome and disarm the Ukrainian forces, they show no signs of destroying the Ukrainian forces, occupying the country, or in breaking the will of the Ukrainian people.

[cdnmatt]

Matt, you already predicted "default" of Russia at least 5 times in this thread.

And since the war began you've been saying it will be over with Russia as the victor within 2 or 3 weeks. What's your point?

Since the West publicly bragged about how much military gear it will be sending Ukraine and when, Russia had months to dig in defensively. Russia doesn't even seem to be bothering with offensive operations right now. The chances of Russia being able to take and hold Kiev are about 0. Ok, not about 0, exactly 0.