The Brink of War?

[Dragonman]

It will be interesting to see whether Moses is correct in his assertion that "Wagner will exist and continue its operations around the globe. Headquarters of Wagner here are opened and continue to recruit freelancers to Mali, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine." There are reports from several sources, including Time and the BBC, that "Russia’s defense ministry has said that the Wagner Group will surrender its supply of weapons and hardware, and its fighters have been invited by Putin to join the Russian army instead. Failing that, mercenaries can flee to neighboring Belarus, which has been involved in mediating an agreement between the two parties since Wagner’s rebellion on Saturday" (https://time.com/6290536/russia-wagner-group-disbanded-ukraine/)." This would suggest, if true, that either the Wagner Group will be dissolved or that the Russian Federation is going into the mercenary army business in Africa, Syria, etc.

Moses asserted that "Again wrong - majority of Russian army are contactors, voluntary signed contract, they knew in advance where they skills will be used." Western reports state that about 410,000 are contract soldiers (kontraktniki), while by the end of 2023, the Russian command expects to have 521,000 contract soldiers, ‘taking into account the replacement of draftees in the groups of troops and the manning of new formations’ (https://ridl.io/the-russian-army-in-2023/). The total number of troops is irrelevant, however, if they are ill-equipped and ill-trained. The latter might explain why both the Chechen forces of Ramzan Kadyrov and the Wagner Group have played such a significant part in the war (which Putin has now admitted it is) with Ukraine. It is also interesting that "'The state paid to the Wagner Group 86.262 billion rubles [approximately $1 billion] for salaries for fighters and incentive rewards between May 2022 and May 2023 alone," Putin said Tuesday, according to the Agence France-Presse" (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-paid-...mutiny-1809326), although he had previously denied the Group's existence. Reports suggest that the Group may now number between 20,000 and 50,000 members. They are paid more than ordinary members of the Russian army, who complain that they are not being paid on time (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...t-finds-a80576).

While the "conflict was resolved less than in 24 hours" because "Kremlin controls situation tightly," part of the reason why the Wagner Group and Prigozhin halted their activities may be explained by the fact that the Kremlin threatened their families. Apparently it is acceptable to threaten the families of others, but unacceptable to have the tables turned.

[Moses]

====There are reports from several sources, including Time and the BBC, that "Russia’s defense ministry has said that the Wagner Group will surrender its supply of weapons and hardware, and its fighters have been invited by Putin to join the Russian army instead. Failing that, mercenaries can flee to neighboring Belarus, which has been involved in mediating an agreement between the two parties since Wagner’s rebellion on Saturday"===

That's what Shoygu wishes, but his political weight here is close to zero. What will be done - it is decision of another people.

====Western reports state that about 410,000 are contract soldiers (kontraktniki), while by the end of 2023, the Russian command expects to have 521,000 contract soldiers, ‘taking into account the replacement of draftees in the groups of troops and the manning of new formations’ (https://ridl.io/the-russian-army-in-2023/).===

Anonymous private project citations? Huh? I may create 10 such projects in 2 days and 10 articles will propagate 10 different points of view. Numbers was correct. to December 2022. Right now number of soldiers on contract is about 515K +/- 5%.

In total in Russian army are about 1,350,000. From this number about 300K are civilians, about 300K are officers in different military research centers, doctors in military hospitals around Russia who service not only soldiers and officers but also army veterans on pensions. So now we have number 750K (1350 - 300 - 300 = 750 ) and from them about 250K are conscripts in training camps who can't be used outside of Russia nor in military operations by law. 750-250=500

Do you see? Number around 500K is totally relevant to my declaration what only contractors are fighting with Ukrainian Nazi regime.

=== Reports suggest that the Group may now number between 20,000 and 50,000 members. They are paid more than ordinary members of the Russian army ===
Correct number is around 40K +/- 10%. They are paid about 1.5 times higher than regulars contractors in army for higher risks: soldier in army on contract receives about USD 2700 monthly, contractors in Wagner have salary about USD 4000 monthly since Wagner is private company and receives a lot of payments from abroad of Russia.

===While the "conflict was resolved less than in 24 hours" because "Kremlin controls situation tightly," part of the reason why the Wagner Group and Prigozhin halted their activities may be explained by the fact that the Kremlin threatened their families. Apparently it is acceptable to threaten the families of others, but unacceptable to have the tables turned.====
This part is pure speculation. Nobody knows how it was done, but it was done less than in 24 hours.

[Dragonman]

=====That's what Shoygu wishes, but his political weight here is close to zero. What will be done - it is decision of another people.=====

It Putin's any better?

=====Anonymous private project citations? Huh? I may create 10 such projects in 2 days and 10 articles will propagate 10 different points of view. Numbers was correct. to December 2022. Right now number of soldiers on contract is about 515K +/- 5%. ===

You never provide links to the sources of your information - or disinformation, as the case may be. Given that the Russian Defense Ministry does not report on the number of soldiers killed or wounded in its war on Ukraine, from where do you get your information?

====Do you see? Number around 500K is totally relevant to my declaration what only contractors are fighting with Ukrainian Nazi regime.==== No one believes this "Ukrainian Nazi regime" shibboleth any longer

==== since Wagner is private company and receives a lot of payments from abroad of Russia.=== So why did TASS run with this headline? "Putin says Wagner group fully financed by Russian government. "I want to note and I want everyone to know that the financing of the entire Wagner group was fully ensured by the state," he said. "We fully financed this group from the Defense Ministry, from the state budget," Putin added. From May 2022 to May 2023, the state alone allocated 86.2 bln rubles ($1 bln) to PMC Wagner in the form of salary to fighters and incentive rewards, the president noted. "Of that amount, remuneration equaled 70.38 bln [rubles], incentive rewards amounted to 15.87 bln [rubles], insurance payments totaled 110.17 bln [rubles]," he said.Meanwhile, Wagner’s owner, the Concord company, received 80 bln rubles ($940 mln) from the state in one year for supplying food and providing food services to the army, the Russian leader noted" (https://tass.com/defense/1639345).

====This part is pure speculation. Nobody knows how it was done, but it was done less than in 24 hours.==== "Russian security services threatened the families of Wagner forces to get them to back down, report says." Given that the EU and US have imposed sanctions on two of Prigozhin's children and his wife, which limit their capacity to travel outside Russia, he had reason to worry (https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...legraph-2023-6).

[Moses]

====No one believes this "Ukrainian Nazi regime" shibboleth any longer===

bullshit...
it is clearly visible and only stupid people don't see it... just open Google-maps and read names on renamed streets in Kiyev... Shushkevych avenue... Shushkevich is hero for these Nazi bastards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Shukhevych

"Russian security services threatened the families of Wagner forces to get them to back down, report says." Given that the EU and US have imposed sanctions on two of Prigozhin's children and his wife, which limit their capacity to travel outside Russia, he had reason to worry (https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...legraph-2023-6).

Once again: Western mass media may write whatever, but nobody of them was there. So it is pure speculations.

===Given that the Russian Defense Ministry does not report on the number of soldiers killed or wounded in its war on Ukraine, from where do you get your information?====

Why you are talking about number of killed. We are talking about number of soldiers in Russian army, and this number is published yearly by Putin's decree. Example http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Docu...01202208250004

===You never provide links to the sources of your information - or disinformation, as the case may be.===
Sure, why should I do it? It is public information, anyone may find it in searchengines.

[Dragonman]

====No one believes this "Ukrainian Nazi regime" shibboleth any longer===

bullshit...
it is clearly visible and only stupid people don't see it... just open Google-maps and read names on renamed streets in Kiyev... Shushkevych avenue... Shushkevich is hero for these Nazi bastards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Shukhevych

You should read the Wikipedia article more carefully, as although it states that he was a collaborator it never states that he belonged to the Nazi party. The Kyiv City Council 2017 decision to rename the former General Vatutin Avenue into Roman Shukhevych Avenue was passed by a 69 to 51 vote, which hardly signals overwhelming support for the idea that Shukhevych is a national hero (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/7766).

"Russian security services threatened the families of Wagner forces to get them to back down, report says." Given that the EU and US have imposed sanctions on two of Prigozhin's children and his wife, which limit their capacity to travel outside Russia, he had reason to worry (https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...legraph-2023-6). Once again: Western mass media may write whatever, but nobody of them was there. So it is pure speculations.

Provide a link to one Russian mass media outlet that has denied this "pure speculation." The Moscow Times (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...legraph-a81642) repeated the information, Although the Moscow Times noted that "it was not possible to independently verify the report’s claims," it did not deny the possibility that Russian intelligence agencies had made threats to harm the families of Wagner mercenary group leaders.

===Given that the Russian Defense Ministry does not report on the number of soldiers killed or wounded in its war on Ukraine, from where do you get your information?====

Why you are talking about number of killed. We are talking about number of soldiers in Russian army, and this number is published yearly by Putin's decree. Example http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Docu...01202208250004

Well, given previous Russian figures on the number of men called up to fight in this war which, as a special military operation which was supposed to last only three days, and then when one subtracts the numbers of those killed or injured, the number of living men capable of fighting is severely diminished. For example, although Russian sources do not give the numbers of Russian soldiers killed, Ukrainian sources report that some 200,590 Russian troops were "liquidated" in the 15 months since the beginning of the war. Western sources are more conservative in their estimates of the number of Russian dead, but still suggest that the figure is more like 100,000. An assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency that was leaked in April found that Russia had suffered 189,500-223,000 total casualties, including 35,500-43,000 dead and 154,000-180,000 wounded (https://www.newsweek.com/how-russia-...kraine-1800426). Given, too, that not all members of a country's army are not foot soldiers - "40% of service members do NOT see combat, and of the remaining 60%, only 10% to 20% are deployed into the combat premise. Plus, the majority of these members enter the arena as supporting units" (https://www.thesoldiersproject.org/w...y-sees-combat/). So the numbers published in an annual decree of August 25, 2022 are meaningless in June 2023.

===You never provide links to the sources of your information - or disinformation, as the case may be.===
Sure, why should I do it? It is public information, anyone may find it in searchengines.

Well, whenever I use search engines for confirmation of the "public information" you post, I can never find it - but I do find public information which does not confirm what you post - such as that I've given in this posting.

However, I admit that you may be correct in stating earlier that the Wagner Group, which Putin claims is entirely funded by the Russian state, is operating as usual and not as part of the Russian armed forces. The BBC website is currently stating that its own reporters in Russia have found that it is still recruiting members. "Several people who picked up the phone stressed that new members were signing contracts with the mercenary group itself, not the Russian defence ministry." The report also states "And yet the criminal case against the mutineers has been dropped, in a country where multiple opposition activists are serving long prison sentences just for speaking out against Russia's war on Ukraine" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66060392). This is from reporters inside Russia.

[Moses]

===You should read the Wikipedia article more carefully, as although it states that he was a collaborator it never states that he belonged to the Nazi party.===

Please find any my post where I call Shushkevych "Nazi".

"You should read" my posts "more carefully".

And by the way: it is historical fact what Shushkevich is responsible for deaths of tens of thousands of Jewish (Holocaust) and Polish people (Volyn). Why you advocating him here?

[arsenal]

Back to more important matters of the satirical movie about the war.

Scene 1.
A young Putin is sitting at home watching The Zelensky Show. He's collapsing with laughter at the antics of this hilariously funny slapstick Polish comic.

"He's such a buffoon" shrieks Putin. He's a total clown. "

[Moses]

Back to more important matters of the satirical movie about the war.

Scene 1.
A young Putin is sitting at home watching The Zelensky Show. He's collapsing with laughter at the antics of this hilariously funny slapstick Polish comic.

"He's such a buffoon" shrieks Putin. He's a total clown. "

2016. Starting from 0:30

[Dragonman]

===You should read the Wikipedia article more carefully, as although it states that he was a collaborator it never states that he belonged to the Nazi party.===

Please find any my post where I call Shushkevych "Nazi".

"You should read" my posts "more carefully".

And by the way: it is historical fact what Shushkevich is responsible for deaths of tens of thousands of Jewish (Holocaust) and Polish people (Volyn). Why you advocating him here?

I can admit when I am wrong, and accept the correction as I interpreted what you had written as meaning that Shushkevich was a member of the Nazi party.

With regard to it being "an historical fact" that Shushkevich was responsible for deaths of tens of thousands of Jewish (Holocaust) and Polish people (Volyn), the Wikipedia article indicates that some of claims about his actions and responsibilities need further investigation (e.g., allegations "made by whom?").

With regard to Shukhevych being a "Ukrainian national hero," the Wikipedia article also notes that the Supreme Administrative Court of Ukraine ruled in August 2011 that Shukhevych's "Hero of Ukraine" title was illegal, on the grounds that, as he died by suicide in 1950, he was not a Ukrainian citizen. During his lifetime, he was (of course) a citizen of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. That being the case, the USSR should be assigned the responsibility for explaining his actions.

In any event, pointing out that your statements can be questioned is not the same as "advocating him here."

Incidentally, as you seem to conflate the massacres of Jews with National Socialism, you might find it interesting to read the Wikipedia article on Russian pogroms in Ukraine and Poland, beginning with the 1821 progrom in Odessa, continuing with those in 1881-1884 in Poland and Ukraine, and in 1903-1906.

[Dragonman]

2016. Starting from 0:30

I expect that Zelenskyy, a Ukrainian Jew, will play "Hava Nagila" (הָבָה נָגִילָה, "Let us rejoice") again when this war ends with a Russian collapse.