The Brink of War?

[Dragonman]

Nope. It works. Perfectly works. Every NATO bureaucrat while giving interviews specially highlight what NATO isn't part of conflict. Just for precautions. All Western countries decline demands of Ukraine for long-ranged weapon. Why? Because of Russian warning what it will cross red line.

Your comment would have more weight if NATO countries had not already crossed the so-called "red line" several times already in supplying armaments, e.g., Germany crossed "the red line" when it started supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine, according to the Russian Ambassador to Germany, Sergey Nechayev, in September 2022. The USA crossed "the red line" when it supplied M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine. The sending of Patriot missile interceptors crossed "the red line," and now the US is supplying a $2.2 billion package of military aid including long-range bombs that can strike targets more than 90 miles away, Lithuania is saying the red line "must be crossed" to supply Ukraine with jets. And so on.

Russia has threatened that If the UK continues to send weapons to Ukraine, then it – and Ireland – face destruction by a nuclear tsunami. So far, Ireland has not sent weapons to Ukraine, stating that it does not have the military capacity to send arms to Ukraine, so why is it threatened - even if the idea were not a fantasy, as a claimed 500 meter high tsunami wave would require the release of the equivalent of 0.8 gigatons of TNT. Reports state that Russia took delivery of its first Poseidon missile in January 2023 (https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...eidon-torpedo/). Each Poseidon is thought to have a 2-megaton thermonuclear warhead, or the equivalent of 2,000 kilotons of TNT.

The EU has established its own "red line" for the PRC, warning it not to send weapons to Russia. EU foreign policy chief says bloc is watching for any sign of lethal support to Moscow, for which it will impose sanction. Beijing rejects suggestion it was considering supplying arms, but Xi left Moscow after his meeting with Putin without a public promise of supplying any.

Threats that don't seem to be a deterrent are not threats.

[Moses]

====for any sign of lethal support to Moscow, for which it will impose sanction.====

that is most funny part: EU sanctioned China )))) What they will do without Chinese goods? Nothing to wear, no computers, no electronic, nothing... Just check what share of parts in Mercedes or BMW is manufactured in China...

"EU will impose"... EU already imposed to Russia and now has inflation from 10 to 20 percent, in some countries twice higher than in Russia ... After imposing to China it will be above 30% because of cost of local labor.

Russian export is just about 1.5% of World trade, but EU+US still can't exclude Russia from global trade, what they will do with China with its 6.5%??? Only 33 countries joined sanctions against Russia, rest don't want to shoot own legs. To join sanctions against China will mean to shoot own head.

Just imagine: Amazon is closed because nothing to sell, eBay is closed, Tesla is closed (because main factory is in China), all electronic gadgets are died because almost all Lithium accs are manufactured in China, new computers costs 3 times more,... oh, I forgot to tell about Apple phones (hello Foxconn in China), and other mobile phones...

what did you just said? sanctions against China? it is best way to start world revolution...

[Dragonman]

====for any sign of lethal support to Moscow, for which it will impose sanction.====

that is most funny part: EU sanctioned China )))) What they will do without Chinese goods? Nothing to wear, no computers, no electronic, nothing... Just check what share of parts in Mercedes or BMW is manufactured in China...

"EU will impose"... EU already imposed to Russia and now has inflation from 10 to 20 percent, in some countries twice higher than in Russia ... After imposing to China it will be above 30% because of cost of local labor.

Russian export is just about 1.5% of World trade, but EU+US still can't exclude Russia from global trade, what they will do with China with its 6.5%??? Only 33 countries joined sanctions against Russia, rest don't want to shoot own legs. To join sanctions against China will mean to shoot own head.

Just imagine: Amazon is closed because nothing to sell, eBay is closed, Tesla is closed (because main factory is in China), all electronic gadgets are died because almost all Lithium accs are manufactured in China, new computers costs 3 times more,... oh, I forgot to tell about Apple phones (hello Foxconn in China), and other mobile phones...

what did you just said? sanctions against China? it is best way to start world revolution...

Why assume that the sanctions would be imposed on exports rather than people or foreign reserves? A perceptive article entitled "China’s national wealth remains vulnerable to Western financial sanctions, no matter what it does," by Chen Zhao, published in The South China Morning Post (26 Mar, 2022), discusses one sort of sanction that could be imposed - similar to those imposed on Russian reserves held outside Russia..The PRC's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 3.184 trillion at the end of January 2023, the majority of which is parked in the dollar-denominated US debt securities, and if the EU imposes sanctions on China, the USA is highly likely to follow.

Despite officially receiving only state salaries, senior CPC officials are rich (the so-called "red nobility") - Xi reputedly has $US2 billion invested in the US stock market, and his family is also wealthy (rather like the Russian situation). Many Chinese oligarchs have moved their wealth to Singapore (to protect it from Xi's crackdown on oligarchs), but they could still be sanctioned. A TIME article of 2014 showed where many of the PRC wealthy then hid their money (Found: Offshore Wealth Stashed by Families of China's Leaders, https://time.com/1374/offshore-wealt...hinas-leaders/). The PRC blocked websites and censored mention of the story online - I wonder why?

EU countries could withdraw university scholarships and place given to PRC students, e.g., the 107,000 in the UK, the 30,00 in Germany, 24,000 in France, and the 15,000 in Italy. Even smaller European countries such as Sweden, Ireland, Hungary, and Switzerland now each host around 2,000 Chinese students. Without a university degree, the students chances of getting a good job on their return to the PRC would be minimal.

With regard to Foxconn in the PRC, 29 of its 35 suppliers are in the PRC. Foxconn, however, has other Apple suppliers in Taiwan, India, Brazil, Vietnam, and the US. Moreover, the firm started moving into other areas in 2019 (like artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous driving) as it sees it traditional major business of smartphone assembly having matured.

Like many non-PRC firms, the vast majority of Foxconn's employees come from the poorer regions of western China. Sanctions imposed on it would mean that employees would be laid off and, thus, lose permission to live Shenzen, Zhengzhou, etc. - cities on the eastern seaboard - and would have to return home to areas where there is no work but where their families (who rely in their income) live. There are already problems in these provinces with poverty, which the closing of firms like Foxconn, etc., would exacerbate - and the PRC does want that.

Sanctions on the PRC and the CPC officials might not ignite a world revolution, but they might ignite another Chinese revolution.

[Moses]

===Why assume that the sanctions would be imposed on exports rather than people? ===
because if not EU, then China will impose export sanctions as an answer... they will find vital articles and just switch off tap or announce restrictive export/import taxes... like they did with Australian wine... 218% taxes... Morrison spoke too much and whole AU wine industry now in crisis https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/b...australia.html

[Dragonman]

===Why assume that the sanctions would be imposed on exports rather than people? ===
because if not EU, then China will impose export sanctions as an answer... they will find vital articles and just switch off tap or announce restrictive export/import taxes... like they did with Australian wine... 218% taxes... Morrison spoke too much and whole AU wine industry now in crisis https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/b...australia.html

As with many of your postings, this is дезинформация (dezinformatsiya) intended to mislead members of this board.The correct information of PRC taxes on Australian wine imports are that the tariffs range from 116% to 218%. While it is correct to claim that Australia’s wine exports to China have plunged to just $12.4 million annually compared with $1.3 billion before Beijing imposed the tariffs in late 2020, the wine industry has diversified into other markets., e.g., Thailand (up 118%), Malaysia, up 78%), Canada, up 14%), Vietnam (all of which have large ethnic Chinese populations), etc. The wine industry's exports in 2022 were worth $1.94 billion, according to the industry body Wine Australia. As with many industries, exports were slightly less than in previous years before of Covid-19 restrictions on bars, etc. In 2021-2022, Australia exported 625 million litres of wine, valued at $2.1 billion (FOB), and the top destination market was the USA, accounting for 21% of the exports by value. Domestically, Australian wine is estimated to account for 441 million litres, making up 82% of the total sales on the domestic market in 2021-22. To claim the industry is "in crisis" is incorrect.

With regard to your earlier posting, Amazon, Tesla, eBay, Apple (and Foxconn) are not EU-based firms, so it would be illogical (but not inconceivable) for the CPC/PRC to retaliate against them for EU-imposed sanctions.

To put into perspective your comment that the PRC ".. will find vital articles and just switch off tap or announce restrictive export/import taxes," the question is "vital to whom"? For example, the PRC is a heavy importer of foodstuffs from the EU, being the bloc's third largest market.

In 2022, China was the third largest partner for EU exports of goods (9.0 %) and the largest partner for EU imports of goods (20.8 %). Overall, however, corporate dependence remains limited as markets in Europe and the US are as or even more important than the Chinese market for their business, e.g., on average, EU companies generated about 11% of their revenue in the PRC.

Last, according to Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe), the inflation rate for the EU as a whole in February 2023 was 9.9%. Four countries - Ukraine, Latvia, Moldova and Hungary - had inflation rates over 20%. The highest inflation rate, however, at 55.18% was Turkiye's, which is not an EU member. Russia, of course, has been one of Turkiye's most important trade partners, e.g., "Russia’s Ukraine War Effort Fueled by Turkish Exports" (https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ts-11675447477). Enough said.

[Moses]

====To claim the industry is "in crisis" is incorrect.====
Tell it to NY Times editors, darling. Because it is their word what has been used for current condition of AU wine industry.

Crisis. That what is going in AU wine industry.

[Moses]

As per inflation...

Dear, from the start I told - it will be shoot in own leg.

Under 10 packs of the sanctions Russia has 11% of inflation (correct number is 10.9%).

Lets see what countries have without sanctions (or it is better to say under own sanctions???) whole EU has inflation just 10% lower than Russia:
Spain 6
Greece 6.1
France 6.3
Norway 6.3
Belgium 6.62
Cyprus 6.7
Malta 7
Albania 7.1
Denmark 7.6
Netherlands 8
Portugal 8.2
Euro Area 8.5
Ireland 8.5
Germany 8.7
Finland 8.8
Italy 9.1
Slovenia 9.3
European Union 9.9
Faroe Islands 10.1
Iceland 10.2
United Kingdom 10.4
Kosovo 10.5
Austria 10.9
Russia 11
Belarus 11.7
Croatia 12
Sweden 12
Bosnia and Herzegovina 14.1
Montenegro 15.1
Slovakia 15.4
Romania 15.52
Bulgaria 16 16.7
Serbia 16.1
Czech Republic 16.7
Macedonia 16.7
Estonia 17.6
Poland 18.4
Lithuania 18.7
Latvia 20.3
Hungary 25.4

And to talk about Turkey economic now - after one of strongest earthquake - is quite stupid, you know...

[Dragonman]

====To claim the industry is "in crisis" is incorrect.====
Tell it to NY Times editors, darling. Because it is their word what has been used for current condition of AU wine industry.

Crisis. That what is going in AU wine industry.

I think the article to which you are referring is entitled "China Wine Tariff Pushes Australia’s Grape Growers Into Crisis" (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/b...australia.html, Claire Fu and Daisuke Wakabayashi, March 16, 2023, Updated March 19, 2023). Claire Fu and Daisuke Wakabayashi both are based in Seoul, not in Australia .

All but one (Nikki Palun) of the interviews are with grape growers, not with the wine making firms such as Treasury Wine Estates, Yalumba, etc. Moreover, all but one (again, Nikki Palun) the interviews were conducted in South Australia, one of the four grape-growing regions. There are four main wine regions in Australia: Western Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia (which includes the Riverland).

The main person interviewed is Mauro Travaglione, whose winemaking Italian parents bought a small fruit farm in South Australia in the 1960s. He is not a wine-maker. Nikki Palun runs Octtava Wine, which focuses on artisanal, small batch urban wine-making, and is not a major wine industry player.

The major reference to a wine-making firm is to Accolade Wines, a conglomerate which told its cooperative of Riverland farmers that producing more red wine this year would only depress red grapes again next year. The other reference to a wine-maker is to Winemasters SA, which markets itself as "a significant resource for growers and traders to process fruit and prepare their wines for sale from all the major S.A. wine regions."

So, the wine industry itself is not in crisis - it is the grape-growers.

[Dragonman]

As per inflation...

Dear, from the start I told - it will be shoot in own leg.

Under 10 packs of the sanctions Russia has 11% of inflation (correct number is 10.9%).

And to talk about Turkey economic now - after one of strongest earthquake - is quite stupid, you know...

The post to which I replied stated ""EU will impose"... EU already imposed to Russia and now has inflation from 10 to 20 percent, in some countries twice higher than in Russia."

I responded, "Last, according to Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe), the inflation rate for the EU as a whole in February 2023 was 9.9%. Four countries - Ukraine, Latvia, Moldova and Hungary - had inflation rates over 20%. The highest inflation rate, however, at 55.18% was Turkiye's, which is not an EU member. Russia, of course, has been one of Turkiye's most important trade partners, e.g., "Russia’s Ukraine War Effort Fueled by Turkish Exports" (https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ts-11675447477). Enough said. "

Nothing you have posted (which far exceeds the five lines you earlier claimed was the limit) contradicts which I wrote, it simply lists the inflation rate by country - not all of which are EU member states, e.g., many of the countries in red in your posting. If you exclude those, that the average EU member state inflation rate is 9.9% for February. The EU annual inflation was 10.0% in January 2023, down from 10.4% in December, 2022 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docume...8-75d72570ca85).

Incidentally, other sources state that the annual inflation rate in Russia fell to 11% in February of 2023 from 11.8% in the previous month, the lowest since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and under market expectations of 11.2 percent (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi). The source for this statistic is cited in the article as Federal State Statistics Service.

If you think that the rate for Turkiye for February should take into account its earthquake, then perhaps you should also know that Turkey's annual average inflation edged up to 72.4% in January 2023, having been 72.3% in December 2022 (https://www.focus-economics.com/coun...22-in-january/). The February figure was actually lower than in the two preceding months.

[arsenal]

The Russian Wagner Group, fed up with fighting them pesky Ukrainians have now turned round and started fighting Russians.

The non Wagner Group Russians, not liking The Wagner Group any more than they did the Ukrainians have sent the Chechens to deal with them.

This is hilarious and many comedies will no doubt follow.

I think Nick Cage would be good as Putin with Ben Kingsley as the slightly deranged Prighozin and Ray Winston as Zelensky..