The Brink of War?

[Moses]

For another viewpoint, read https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...in-2022-a79856, particularly the comments that state why the GDP figures are misleading and the comments by the economist Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) on the effect of sanctions: "This means Western sanctions “basically shrunk Russia’s economy by 10%,” he said."

Yeah... politics will always explain why their forecasts not became true...

10% shrunk you told? Real number is 2.1%... not 20%, not 10%, but -2.1%. Russia spend time for to make new logistic, to change customers, to make new agreements.
International trade of Russia 2022 grew 9.1%. How did you say? "Sanctions"? Export grew 19.9% and became highest in whole history of modern Russia.

On the past week Federal Customs published statistic. Import of "sanctioned" Intel processors grew almost 10% in 2022. When somebody doesn't want to sell there always will be someone who want to make deal on the globe.

I told from beginning, in 2021 yet: it is not possible to exclude Russia from global economic.

[Dragonman]

... International trade of Russia 2022 grew 9.1%. How did you say? "Sanctions"? Export grew 19.9% and became highest in whole history of modern Russia.
On the past week Federal Customs published statistic. Import of "sanctioned" Intel processors grew almost 10% in 2022. When somebody doesn't want to sell there always will be someone who want to make deal on the globe..

As usual, you do not cite sources for your information, so it is necessary to check more reliable information. Interestingly, "The Federal Customs Service has partially resumed the publication of foreign trade customs statistics. From the above data it follows that the turnover of Russia's foreign trade in 2022 grew by 8.1% (sic) year-on-year and reached $850.5 billion." (https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/gosu...rticle1468578/, 13/03.2023). 8.1%, not 9.1%

The 19.9% figure for export growth is selective: "The FCS provides data on the results of trade in 2022 for 71 types of goods. It follows from the data that over the year Russia increased the export of mineral fuels, oil and products of their distillation, bituminous substances by 42.8% - up to $383.7 billion. Exports of food products and agricultural raw materials in monetary terms increased by 14.8%, supplies of fertilizers - by 54.3% - to $19.295 billion. Imports of fertilizers increased 2.1 times - to $351.6 million. In April 2022, the Russian Federal Customs Service suspended the publication of data on imports and exports in order to avoid "incorrect estimates and speculation." (https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/gosu...rticle1468578/). In other words, the Russian data need to be treated carefully because they do not represent a complete picture, as the Russian Federal Customs Service itself acknowledges.

The reference to the supply of sanctioned intel processors is probably a reference to the activities of the Turkish firm Azu International Ltd Sti, among others. Overall, however, "A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Commerce said, “Since the start of the invasion, Russia’s access to semiconductors from all sources has been slashed by nearly 70 percent thanks to the actions of the unprecedented 38 nation coalition that has come together to respond to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s aggression. It is no surprise that Russia is working hard to circumvent controls.” (https://www.reuters.com/investigates...ech-middlemen/) (13/12/2022).

You can continue to boast about little percentage wins, but the "special military operation" big win that was supposed to be achieved in a matter of weeks if not days still eludes Putin more than a year after it began. And there are signs that the current situation does not augur well for Russian success. For example, the decree by the Zaporizhzhia Oblast declaring occupied Melitopol as the oblast capital as a temporary measure until the city of Zaporizhzhia is controlled by Russia is likely tacit acknowledgement that Russian forces are highly unlikely to seize previously planned major objectives in the near future - and Russian forces have never occupied the city of Zaporizhzhia.

I think the English-language expression for the current Russian situation is "whistling in the dark,"

[Moses]

======As usual, you do not cite sources for your information, so it is necessary to check more reliable information. Interestingly, "The Federal Customs Service has partially resumed the publication of foreign trade customs statistics. From the above data it follows that the turnover of Russia's foreign trade in 2022 grew by 8.1% (sic) year-on-year and reached $850.5 billion." (https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/gosu...rticle1468578/, 13/03.2023). 8.1%, not 9.1%====

No. It is exactly 9.1% surplus. WTF is "oreanda" is it second name or alias of Russian Federal statistic burau? If not - forget about their bullshit...

====The 19.9% figure for export growth is selective=====

Again from the same strange source? Dear, use first hand source, Google will translate. "Oreanda" again wrote bullshit: Since 2022 Russia doesn't publish full statistic for not to help to "friends" targeting sanctions. Only 72 general positions are opened in figures. But total number summarize everything. And 19.9% of growing export are 19.9%. Like you it of not.

For example:
- in 2023 Russia became #2 supplier of LNG to EU. Spain, France and Portugal are main buyers. EU buys LNG from Russia more than from Qatar (it was #2 in 2022). Money. Profit. Who cares about sanctions if LNG from Russia is more cheaper because of distance?
- in 2023 Morocco suddenly starts to export to EU 10 times more diesel fuel than in 2022. Do you think nobody knows source of this fuel?
- a lot of Russians moved to Georgia, Kazakhstan and other republic of formerly USSR at past autumn. To Armenia moved about 100.000. About 50.000 of them already are back to Russia, but from rest 50.000 only 3.600 accepted Armenian citizenship. Rest created a lot of local companies and started business by export of sanctioned goods to Russia. Now Armenia buys 8 times more computers, software, cars from EU and US than year before.

===="A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Commerce said, “Since the start of the invasion, Russia’s access to semiconductors from all sources has been slashed by nearly 70 percent====
Yeah, they think so. Reality is: in 2022 9% more Intel processors crossed Russian border than in 2021. Federal customs knows it for sure: they collect taxes for importing goods.

[Dragonman]

Moses,

You commented, "WTF is "oreanda" is it second name or alias of Russian Federal statistic burau? If not - forget about their bullshit..." .

For your information, "The Oreanda-News agency was founded in August 1994 in Moscow, becoming one of the first independent news agencies in contemporary Russia, which remains now. The name of the agency was given by founders in memory of the striking trip to one of the suburbs of Yalta.....Since 2007 the headquarters of the agency is located in St. Petersburg." (https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/about/). Its Russian-language website is at https://www.oreanda-news.com/. .

In reality, it was not "9% more intel processors (that) crossed Russian border than in 2021," but intel chips! "In 2022, 782,000 Intel chips were imported into Russia, which is 9% more than in 2021, a source told the publication, citing data from the Federal Customs Service. Deliveries of AMD processors for the same period fell by half, to 143 thousand units. The volume of deliveries of other companies increased by 2.5 times, up to 102,000 chips. Chinese and Korean manufacturers fell into this category. Another source of the publication said that the total supply of all microcircuits (including processors) in 2022 decreased by 19%, to 511 thousand pieces. At the same time, the customs value of products almost doubled and amounted to $2.1 billion, or 157 billion rubles. [Коммерсантъ]" (https://www.gamingdeputy.com/deliver...-grew-in-2022/). So, 9% more intel chips versus some 50% fewer AMD processors. Win some, lose some.

With regard to Turkish, Moroccan, etc., exports of diesel into the EU, the source of the fuel is not unknown to EU authorities, e.g., "There is nothing illegal about either trade and there won’t be after the EU’s imports ban. However, the bloc will join with G7 nations in capping the price of fuels for anyone wanting to use European tankers or industry standard insurance to deliver cargoes to other markets. To be clear, the current flows to Morocco and Turkey don’t do enough to replace the huge lost demand that Russia will need to replace when Europe stops importing" (https://english.alarabiya.net/busine...-before-EU-ban). Russia still needs to find markets for its oil and other exports.

As your other claims about still without sources, I think you're still whistling in the dark.

[Moses]

I think you're still whistling in the dark.

You should think more. Then it may became your skill after a while.

Depended or independent agencies here - all - have the same source: Federal statistic burau, which has info from border - from Federal customs.

[Dragonman]

You should think more. Then it may became your skill after a while.

Depended or independent agencies here - all - have the same source: Federal statistic burau, which has info from border - from Federal customs.

Perhaps you don't understand the meaning of "whistling in the dark"? I believe a Russian equivalent is "показной оптимизм" (which translates, I believe, as "ostentatious optimism").

Here are some statistics that are not from the Federal Statistics Bureau. " Russia has suffered more combat fatalities in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars since World War II combined. In addition, the average rate of Russian regular and irregular soldiers killed per month in Ukraine over the first year of the war was at least 25 times the number killed per month in Russia’s war in Chechnya and at least 35 times the number killed per month in the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan.........there have been approximately 60,000 to 70,000 combat fatalities between February 2022 and February 2023. These estimates include regular Russian soldiers from the Russian armed forces, Rosgvardiya, Federal Security Service, and Federal Guard Service; fighters from pro-Russian militias, such as the Donetsk People’s Militia and Luhansk People’s Militia; and contractors from private military companies such as the Wagner Group. Overall, Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 to 250,000 total casualties—personnel wounded, killed, and missing—during the first year of the war. These casualty estimates also include regular Russian soldiers, militia fighters, and private contractors from the Wagner Group.....the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine during the first year of the war was greater than the entire number of Russian soldiers killed in every war the Soviet Union and Russia fought in since World War II combined. These wars included the invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia; the limited Soviet involvement in such countries as Angola, North Yemen, Vietnam, and Ethiopia; the Sino-Soviet border conflict; the decade-long war in Afghanistan; Georgia; Syria; and Ukraine between 2014 and February 2022, which occurred primarily in Crimea and the Donbas......The rate of attrition is also much higher in Ukraine than in any Soviet or Russian war since World War II. Russia suffered an average of roughly 5,000 to 5,800 regular and irregular soldiers killed per month in Ukraine over the first year of the war. In comparison, Russia suffered somewhere between 12,000 to 25,000 fatalities in Chechnya over a 15-year period (with a three-year pause), an average rate of between roughly 95 and 185 soldiers killed per month. The Soviet Union also suffered roughly 14,000 to 16,000 combat fatalities in Afghanistan, an average rate of between roughly 130 and 145 soldiers killed per month." (The Bloody Toll of Russia’s War in Ukraine, Seth G. Jones, Sunday, March 19, 2023, 10:01 AM, https://www.lawfareblog.com/bloody-t...as-war-ukraine). . The author of this article, Seth G. Jones, is senior vice president and director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Ukrainian official figures put the Russian death toll at "Russian soldiers killed: between 5,937 and 139,000. ....From the early days of the war, casualty counts for Russian soldiers have varied widely — depending on the source. Ukraine raised its estimate of Russian soldiers killed in the conflict to more than 139,000 on Wednesday. These numbers have been updated frequently through the Facebook page for the country’s General Staff of the Armed Forces. In its first update on casualties since March, Russia claimed in late September that there had been 5,937 Russian military deaths. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in April that there had been “significant losses of troops, and it’s a huge tragedy for us.” (Ukraine War in Data: More than 500,000 Russians have left their country since the war began. https://sawatdeenetwork.com/v4/showt...of-War/page263, February 16, 2023).

As I said in an earlier posting, that you ignored, you can claim the little wins (i.e., imported chip numbers and increased diesel exports, the level of inflation or deflation, the price of your winter heating gas, and so), but the big win still eludes Russia and Putin after more than a year - and an end is not in sight.

[arsenal]

The pair of you need an ETT. Emergency Thailand Trip.

[Dragonman]

The pair of you need an ETT. Emergency Thailand Trip.

So true - but health situation and age do not permit it.

[Moses]

The pair of you need an ETT. Emergency Thailand Trip.

I spend month in Thailand and Vietnam in Jan-Feb 2023 already.

[Moses]

===Russian soldiers killed: between 5,937 and 139,000===
===These numbers have been updated frequently through the Facebook page===

In these sentences everything is "perfect" - how precisely it counted, trusted media for publication... do you need me to publish on FB numbers "from 3 persons till about 108"? And then I will show it as a proof...

==="Center for Strategic and International Studies" ===
just simple CIA propaganda for to influence on morale of both sides. You know it, I know it, why you bring it here?

P.S. nobody reads paragraphs longer than 4-5 lines on the web. Each next line lower number of readers on about 20%. People are lazy.