The Brink of War?

[cdnmatt]

It's quite obvious Putin had aspirations outside of Ukraine, hence this whole discussion is stupid.

[Dragonman]

The most stupid comparation. Newbies always compare GDPs without correction on internal consumption. for to compare countries you should always use GDP PPP, only for countries like Qatar or Luxemburg it isn't important - more than half of GDP is going to export.

You already saw: monthly amount of gas here for one family costs $3 and counted like $3 in GDP, monthly amount of gas in Poland costs $600 and counted as $600 in GDP, but it is the same amount of gas. The same story with all natural resources and their products. By the way: Poland also count as GDP EU dotation in tens of billions Euro...

As usual, you change the ground on which you respond to comments. Your original posting referred to the countries of Poland and Romania as being poor, while your present response refers to the citizens of those countries and the cost of certain goods to them.

Your indicators of relative wealth are cherry-picking the data, i.e., you focus on gas, which Russia produces but Poland, for example, does not. How much have food prices risen in Russia compared with those elsewhere (see, e.g., https://www.reuters.com/business/ret...-2022-10-05/)?

Why don't you mention, e.g., manufactured goods prices, particularly those using imported components - see "Prices for car parts in Russia have gone up by an average of 31% since Moscow invaded Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported Friday" (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...rsant-a77663)?

Reports in August suggested that "Russia faces ‘economic oblivion’ despite claims of short-term resilience, economists say" (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/russ...esilience.html). The article states "However, many economists see long-lasting costs to the Russian economy from the exit of foreign firms, the loss of its long-term oil and gas markets, and its diminished access to critical imports of technology and inputs." It also refers to "falling living standards in recent months have weighed on consumer demand, hitting retail sales and leading to an extended period of deflation over the summer. High inflation has for years been a top concern for Russian households as it dents their spending power and eats into living standards."

You mention using PPP. One common way of measuring wealth is what is known as the Big Mac Index (based on the relative cost of a Big Mac hamburger) or Big Mac PPP (because it measures purchasing power between currencies). The 2022 Index suggests that both the Romanian and Polish currencies are under-valued but (for obvious reasons) the Russian ruble is not included (https://fxssi.com/big-mac-index).

[Moses]

=======Your indicators of relative wealth are cherry-picking the data, i.e., you focus on gas, which Russia produces but Poland, for example, does not. How much have food prices risen in Russia compared with those elsewhere (see, e.g., https://www.reuters.com/business/ret...-2022-10-05/)?

past 6 months we have deflation here, and most got cheaper - food... it is falling in prices, not rosining, prices are now below numbers what were in winter because ruble got 20% stronger and all import is now 20% cheaper

manufacturers of pork for example are crying because sale price is below their expenses (in general they lie, but they really have low margin)

1 kg of fresh cooled pork without fat and bones is $4 - lower than chickens... (prices are in rubles, divide to 62 for USD, prices are from middle class supermarket, low level have lower prices but less service)

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here is fresh cooled beef, best parts, no fat or bones, around $12 per 1 kg

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fresh cooled chicken breasts, $4.8 per 1kg

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all these products are domestic, so prices not fell as dramatic as on imported products...

[cdnmatt]

Alright, now martial law imposed, and reports coming out the residents are being forced to Russia.

Moses, quit acting like Russia is some huge super power. It's not.

[Moses]

Alright, now martial law imposed, and reports coming out the residents are being forced to Russia.

Moses, quit acting like Russia is some huge super power. It's not.

Martial law imposed only on territories what been taken by Russia - i.e. 4 formerly Ukrainian regions... it is not a news for them: they already were under martial law from Feb 24, but now it is Russian law instead of Ukrainian.

To Russia? You just said words what are criminal by Ukrainian law since they are evacuating to Crimea. It is correct news - citizens who are living on the right bank of Dnepr river are evacuating to left bank, because governors of new regions expecting bombing of right bank by Ukraine and also bombing of Khahovka dam above Kherson by Dnepr that may lead to high level flood.

Crimea is just in 100 km

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[Dragonman]

Once again, you shift the grounds on which you have tried to construct a convincing argument by posting jpg and png images without stating from when and where they originate. They prove nothing about the current situation.

And, once again, you cherry pick the products on which you attempt - badly - to construct an argument, focusing only on foodstuffs.

Other sources contradict your claims of deflation, too. For example, "Aug 29 (Reuters) - Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said inflation will come in at 12-13% in 2022, below earlier expectations, as the economy looks set to defy the gloomiest predictions of a near collapse in the face of Western sanctions" (https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ys-2022-08-29/).

Statistica reports that In September 2022, the inflation rate in Russia reached 13.7 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. The figure marked a decrease from August 2022, when it stood at 14.3 percent (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ate-in-russia/).

Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi) reported that "The annual inflation rate in Russia eased to 13.7 percent in September of 2022 from 14.3 percent in the previous month, the lowest since February and compared with market expectations of 13.6 percent. The main upward pressure came from non-food products (14.9 percent), followed closely by food prices (14.2 percent), and services (11 percent). Also, core consumer prices advanced 14.1 percent from a year earlier, easing from a 17.7 percent jump in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent, after a 0.5 percent decrease in August. source: Federal State Statistics Service."

If the Russian Federal State Statistics Service reports an annual inflation rate for September 2022 of 13.7%, I'll believe them over your claims of deflation.

Are you claiming that a failing inflation rate equals deflation, because the general definitions are "Inflation is an increase in the general prices of goods and services in an economy. Deflation, conversely, is the general decline in prices for goods and services, indicated by an inflation rate that falls below zero percent" (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...-deflation.asp).

An inflation rate of 13.7% is definitely not below zero percent!

So much for being a newbie!!

[Moses]

An inflation rate of 13.7% is definitely not below zero percent!

So much for being a newbie!!

Once again: I can read Russian, you cant, I know real sources of information, you are collecting "news" from filtered medias.

For example inflation (whole) is now 13.1% and it was in news in Russian language day ago, but you still have no idea about it because each local news should be translated and then filtered by Western medias, usually they are1-2 days late if it isn't breaking news. And inflation is inducted mainly by prices of services and luxury, somehow by prices of cars and electronics what are imported by unofficial channels.

Once again, you said pictures without source, but anyone who can read Russian see source right on the picture. You are so self-confident while have no idea what's going on here and trying to imagine picture by filtered medias. Don't be lazy, use Google Lenz for translation.

And about deflation says numbers itself: in February it was 18% and Biden-Alzheimer even promised 24% till the end of the year, current number is 13,1% and that means prices are going down and here is deflation 18->13,1. Unfortunately for mr Alzheimer Bank of Russia has huge practice to tame inflation, and last 6 months here is deflation, but 20-25% of inflation is in countries of EU - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - they were too much active in imposing sanctions and political emotions won against economical mind.

PS> movement from 13,7 to 13,1 isn't zero definitely - it is below zero: past 6 months inflation is negative, i.e. deflation.

[cdnmatt]

Again Moses, I would like to ask you, what's your version of victory here? What does Russia need to achieve in order for you to feel as though Russia has been victourious?

[Dragonman]

Then I'll quote a Russian source from 6 October 2022.

"Weekly inflation in Russia down to 0.07% — statistics. It is noted that consumer prices rose by 10.4% from the year beginning
MOSCOW, October 5. /TASS/. Weekly inflation in Russia amounted to 0.07% from September 27 to October 3, 2022, the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported on Wednesday. Inflation was 0.08% a week earlier.
Consumer prices rose by 10.4% from the year beginning and by 0.03% since the start of October." (https://tass.com/economy/1518397).

As you know, TASS is a major Russian state-owned news agency, is the largest Russian news agency and one of the largest news agencies worldwide. Moreover, TASS is registered as a Federal State Unitary Enterprise, owned by the Government of Russia.

If a Russian state-owned news agency refers to "inflation" in Russia in October 2022, I will believe that there is inflation in Russia, particularly when the source states that "consumer prices rose by 10.4% from the year beginning."

Or is TASS lying to its international readers?

[Dragonman]

PS> movement from 13,7 to 13,1 isn't zero definitely - it is below zero: past 6 months inflation is negative, i.e. deflation.

No, because you misunderstand what deflation is. It is a drop in inflation of 0.6% only - which is actually still above zero.

A drop from 13.7% to 13.1% is a lower inflation rate, but it is still way above a zero percent inflation rate (i.e., 0%) and is definitely not a negative rate.

For example, a zero percent interest on your bank account is written as 0%, not as a reduction in the interest rate from 13.7% to 13.1%.

Interestingly, official data for food prices contradicts your claims: "Cost of food in Russia increased 14.20 percent in September of 2022 over the same month in the previous year. source: Federal State Statistics Service" (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/food-inflation).