The Brink of War?

[Moses]

Always remember, Russia is the one who started this war, not the West. If you Russians want to live in abject poverty for the next couple generations, that's kind of on you guys for not marching on the Kremlin. We're still waiting for you guys to march on the Kemlin and tell Putin he's out of a job btw.... seems like Russians have decided to flee the country in a mass exodus instead, so whatever, we'll work with that too.

China already answered that: don't forget history. Everything started from inspired by US coup in 2014, which gave power to nationalists on Ukraine. Rest is just consequences.

[Dragonman]

"don't forget history."

True - Soviet/Russian history does seem to have a familiar pattern. "On November 30, 1939, nearly half a million Soviet troops stormed into Finland, beginning what would become known as the Winter War. The surprise attack came after the Kremlin, fearing a possible Nazi offensive through Finland, had insistently called for a land swap that would have pushed the Finnish border away from Leningrad (now St. Petersburg). Wary of Soviet intentions, Finland’s government refused.
Soviet planners assumed an easy victory in time for Josef Stalin's 60th birthday on December 21. It was not to be. Although the Red Army would eventually win the war, the defeat of the country of just 3.7 million people came only months later -- and at a terrible cost" (https://www.rferl.org/a/finlands-win.../30280490.html).

The 1939 Finno-Russian Winter War left 25,904 Finns dead. The Soviets lost at least 126,875 soldiers.

According ot Wikipedia "One Red Army General, looking at a map of the territory just conquered, is said to have remarked: "We have won just about enough ground to bury our dead." The official Soviet figure, issued just after the war, listed 48,745 dead and 150,863 wounded. According to Nikita Khrushchev, 1.5 million men were sent to Finland and one million of them were killed, while 1,000 aircraft, 2,300 tanks and armored cars and an enormous amount of other war materials were lost. Finland's losses were limited to 25,904 dead or missing, and 43,557 wounded." Wikipedia also reports other figures for the dead and wounded on each side but always the Russian dead and wounded massively outnumber the FInnish figures.

History repeating itself. Finland was a neutral state.

One difference between then and now, however, is that then "Unable to secure help from Britain and France, the exhausted Finns made peace (the Treaty of Moscow) on Soviet terms on March 12, 1940" (https://www.britannica.com/event/Russo-Finnish-War), while now the Ukrainians are receiving help not only from Britain and France but also a multitude of other countries - including the Russian donation of tanks, ammunition, etc., left behind by those advancing backwards.

New ratio to remember from history: 25,904: 126,875 or about 1:5

[cdnmatt]

China already answered that:

No, they didn't. Few points here:

1. China has already made it very clear they they support the sovereignty of Ukraine.

2. China already has so many internal and economic disputes at home, by no means are they in a position to start a war.

3. Even if China does start a war, it'll be directed towards Taiwan. There will be no support from China to help with Putin's bullshit invasion of Ukraine.

What blows my mind is how so many of you bull headed Russians haven't yet figured out how this goes. You're not going to win, and you're dooming your country and fellow citizens into generations of poverty for no reason. That's on you guys though. If you want to follow Putin into 50 years of abject poverty, then have fun with that. Don't blame the West for that when it happens, because it's 100% on you Russians for allowing it to happen.

[Dodger]

......China has already made it very clear they they support the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Not surprising at all that Xi took one giant leep away from Putin.

Xi has is own problems (and ambitions) to worry about, plus the fact that the Chinese are not "risk takers" to begin with. If you were playing a game of chess with a Chinese person you'd probably grow a beard by the time the game was over - because they take forever to make a move. Unlike the West, that sometimes shoots from the hips thinking in terms of weeks or months, the Chinese think in terms of Century's.

Putin's Special Operation has done nothing more than lift the curtain so the whole world, including China, can see the true capabilities of the Russian military. I've felt from the beginning that this would damage Russia's global footing more in the long-run than even the isolation and economic disaster it faces.

[Dragonman]

Xi has is own problems (and ambitions) to worry about, plus the fact that the Chinese are not "risk takers" to begin with. If you were playing a game of chess with a Chinese person you'd probably grow a beard by the time the game was over - because they take forever to make a move. Unlike the West, that sometimes shoots from the hips thinking in terms of weeks or months, the Chinese think in terms of Century's.

While it is true that Xi has his own problems (and ambitions), it is not entirely true to say that Chinese are not "risk takers" to begin with. There are, for example, many Chinese proverbs that emphasize risk-seeking or risk-taking - but only for financial and not for social reasons. Chinese, for example, are known to be great gamblers, including on stock markets.Macau exists because Chinese - and not just the oligarchs - like to gamble. If money were at stake in a game of chess, a Chinese would almost certainly be a risk-taker, but not if friendship were.

Xi, however, has a history of speaking on risk management, particularly on "black swan" (or unpredictable crisis) and "grey rhino" (predictable risks that are often ignored because one never knows when they might emerge) events.

[cdnmatt]

You know what's sad? It's estimated about 1.1 million Russians have fled since Putin ordered mobilization. That would have probably been enough people that if they marched on the Kremlin, they would have been able to overthrow the government.

And that's just the people who have left since mobilization was announced, much less all the people who left during the initial months of the war. Gather them all together for a "freedom walk" to the Kremlin / Duma, and that should be enough to let Putin know he's no longer needed.

[Dragonman]

You know what's sad? It's estimated about 1.1 million Russians have fled since Putin ordered mobilization. That would have probably been enough people that if they marched on the Kremlin, they would have been able to overthrow the government.

And that's just the people who have left since mobilization was announced, much less all the people who left during the initial months of the war. Gather them all together for a "freedom walk" to the Kremlin / Duma, and that should be enough to let Putin know he's no longer needed.

According to a report in The Moscow Times (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...22-fsb-a77603; Updated May 6, 2022) "Nearly 4M Russians Left Russia in Early 2022 – FSB." The article states: "More than 3.8 million Russians have left the country in the first three months of 2022, according to data from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). A total of 3,880,679 Russians traveled for work, business, tourism and private reasons between January and March. Former Soviet countries saw significant spikes in arrivals after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russians who fled out of opposition to the war were joined by those escaping rumored border closures, martial law and mass mobilization that have so far not materialized in the 72-day war. It’s unclear how many of these Russians have since returned to their home country."

"In the first 6 months of 2022, 419,000 people emigrated from Russia, RBC news agency reports, citing data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). This is twice as much as in the same period last year." (https://www.kyivpost.com/russia/twic...f-of-2021.html). The article points out that "Their return in the foreseeable future looks unlikely. Many people understand that as soon as they set foot on their native land, they can instantly find themselves behind bars on charges of “discrediting the Russian army.” After all, in today’s Russia, a person can be deprived of freedom even for an anti-war position or a “politically incorrect statement” on social networks."

Russians are already marching - but out of Russia, which should have shown Putin that he is no longer wanted.

[Dodger]

While it is true that Xi has his own problems (and ambitions), it is not entirely true to say that Chinese are not "risk takers" to begin with.

I stand corrected.

After reading your response I did some Google reading and it appears you're absolutely correct. I'm learning something new every day. Before this war started I though Ukraine was a small country somewhere south of Spain.

I guess even with the Chinese lust for gambling they must view "Putin" as being just a tad too risky...LOL

They like to gamble - but they ain't crazy!
.

[cdnmatt]

It's difficult to guage how many people have actually fled Russia with intentions of leaving for good. Nonetheless, let's go with 6 million as that seems like a nice, conservative estimate from all reporting out there.

6 million pissed off Russians marching on the Kremlin / Duma. That would put an end to this atrocity of a war real quick.

And that's what the West is waiting / hoping for. It's up to the Russian people to realize they're being duped by Putin though, and nothing anyone in the West can do about that. I wish the West would do more in regards to supplying Ukraine with the weaponary it's requesting, but I'm hardly in a position to be making those calls.

Who knows, I don't care. I just want to give my dude a hug at the airport, get the house setup, grab the kids, then buy them a couple puppies while I listen to their excitement as they find out they're now dog owners. Kind of like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQTfElvFmBM

[Moses]

It's difficult to guage how many people have actually fled Russia with intentions of leaving for good. Nonetheless, let's go with 6 million as that seems like a nice, conservative estimate from all reporting out there.

6 million pissed off Russians marching on the Kremlin / Duma. That would put an end to this atrocity of a war real quick.

And that's what the West is waiting / hoping for. It's up to the Russian people to realize they're being duped by Putin though, and nothing anyone in the West can do about that. I wish the West would do more in regards to supplying Ukraine with the weaponary it's requesting, but I'm hardly in a position to be making those calls.

Who knows, I don't care. I just want to give my dude a hug at the airport, get the house setup, grab the kids, then buy them a couple puppies while I listen to their excitement as they find out they're now dog owners. Kind of like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQTfElvFmBM

Darling, total amount who left and yet is not returned is 750 000. Numbers corresponding with numbers of border guards of countries to where Russians leaving. On September 1st it was 419000. After it here was panic from about September 15 till about October 1st and many (few hundreds of thousands ran).

By the way: since mobilization is almost over and many categories like IT-specialists declared "can't be mobilized", panic is over, and inflow is 1.5 times bigger than outflow now. We have daily statistic.

For example minister of foreign affairs of Kazakhstan told, what from 220 000 Russians who visiting KZ, 147 000 already returned to Russia.
https://www.caravan.kz/news/rossiyan...nu-smi-882339/ (it is Kazakh source, use Google translator)

P.S. Mayor of Moscow just declared end of mobilization in Moscow region. On past week few regions also declared end of mobilization.