The Brink of War?

[cdnmatt]

Because posting images is always an excellent way to converse with a blind guy.

[Dodger]

For seven months we've watched families in Ukraine being forced to witness their homes and towns turned to dust and their loved-ones violently murdered in the streets. Only now, after Putin's partial mobilization which forces the average Russian citizen to take up arms and fight are the Russian people standing in protest against the war. Hmmm...human nature at its best.

Russian citizens now have "skin-in-the-game" as we say in Chicago - and the realities of war have reached their doorsteps. For seven months Ukrainian families have been living this reality - and now Putin has thrown his own people in the mix. Poetic justice? Who knows. Who cares. The only thing that matters is that more innocent people are going to die in support of this insane madman's vain glory.

Ukraine will NEVER surrender its land (any of its land) to Putin. This much has been proved to the World as witnessed by the Ukrainians absolute steadfast and heroic defense of its homeland. NATOs full and unconditional support to Ukraine will never be compromised. That much we also know.

Turkey just dropped its objections regarding Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO and we're just a heartbeat away from them becoming members. Evan without Sweden and Finland's formidable militaries NATO is the most powerful military alliance in the World...and that includes its combined nuclear arsenal and nuclear defense systems (shields).

People have every right to fear a tyrant like Putin when he's backed in the corner with his huge nuclear stockpile (or so he says), but honestly, I really don't think the average person (like me) is as concerned about this as they were before Putin started his war. Frankly, and I know this is a serious subject, after seeing the condition of Russia's military equipment during this conflict I wonder if his nukes (and the systems used to deploy them) even work. And if they do, does the current Russian Military Leadership have the skills and expertise (capabilities) to even figure out how to launch them??? If they're afraid to stand up on a battlefield - do you really think they have the balls to launch a nuclear strike? Sorry, I don't, and I don't think NATO and Europeans Commands think so either.

As far as forcing "Reservists" into a combat situations goes, Putin has just placed an order that will get many Russian soldiers needlessly killed. Plain and simple. If anyone here has ever served in the military, especially during wartime (I have), they know that new recruits that arrive on front-lines during combat situations are at high risk for at least the first few months and considered liabilities by the other soldiers. This status doesn't change until they've worked under the wings of their fellow platoon members...know their moves... show their ability to standup and not lose their nerve in combat situations...and honed the skills needed to stay alive and keep their brothers alive. This is just a no-brainer for people who have served in the Military.

That said, Putin has made it abundantly clear that he places his own "Vain Glory" over that of human life. And that includes the lives of his own people. For this reason I think the Russian People will ultimately deal with him the best way they see fit. He's only one man. And without the total and unflinching dedication of his Generals and Oligarchs I believe his days are numbered...and the countdown has already started.

[Dragonman]

Are you sure?

Attachment 12778

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ion-by-country

What the URL report in your posting doesn't show, however, is that the great majority of immigrant to Russia come from states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union and now are predominantly members of the CIS. Nor does it show how many of them are ethnically Russian.

Reports of mass emigration from Canada have been wildly exaggerated, while the reports about the long lines of vehicles trying to cross land borders and the number of people trying now to leave Russia probably under-report the real situation (e.g., https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...putin-call-up; https://www.news.com.au/world/europe...b70e947e7948d; https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-...soar/101467146).

I understand that the social media report of 35 km long queue at the Finnish border was incorrect, though, and it was only 250 meters long (https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...finland-border).

[Moses]

This... that... whatever...

Guys, all you have to know:
- population of Russia is 145 mln,
- population of Ukraine is 42 mln minus 2.5 mln in Crimea, minus 3 mln in DNR and LNR, minus 8 mln of workers and refugees in EU, minus 3 mln of refugees in Russia. Total = 25.5 mln

Russia just called first time partial mobilization. Ukraine already has 6 waves of mobilization and now is going 7th wave. Total mobilization. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobilization_in_Ukraine

Time is working in favor of Russia anyway. But than longer Ukraine will have support from West, then more people will die, but result of conflict will be the same. It is unavoidable: 145 : 25.

Russia has just wait till time when Ukraine will be ready to peace talk. Now Zelensky declines any attempts to talk in empty hopes on Western miracle.

[cdnmatt]

Moses, I think you have to mentally settle in for the fact that no longer can Russia win this war under any scenario.

Military man power is depleted to the point that Russia is forced to go the draft route, military hardware is running low and Russia no longer has access to the chips or technology necessary to manufacture modern military hardware anymore, and I could go on for several pages about this.

The US Secretary of Defense has already said Russia will not be allowed to leave Ukraine, and Ukraine has already said they will not stop until they reclaim every square meter of their territory including Crimea. Think Afghanistan, but will full support including financial and military aid from the entire Western world, plus a bunch of battle hardened Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting for their very freedom and homeland. now put that up against a bunch of ill trained conscripts / reservists who have no desire to be there and are suffering from very low morale.

It doesn't take a genious to figure out how this goes. Russia was expecting to take Kiev within the first week or two, and it's 7 months in now and Ukraine is pushing Russia back in loads of regions at the moment. Russia being able to take Odessa and Kiev is a total pipe dream, much less going into Poland or Romania.

You may want to settle in for the fact that at the very least, Putin's days are now numbered. That's the best case scenario for Russia, but if Putin continues to run amuck like this, there's also the chance various regions of Russia are going to declare independance and Russia will break up into a dozen or more countries ala 1991. Obviously, us in the West would be thrilled with that result, but that's for the people of Russia to decide, not us.

[Moses]

Moses, I think you have to mentally settle in for the fact that no longer can Russia win this war under any scenario.

Military man power is depleted to the point that Russia is forced to go the draft route, military hardware is running low and Russia no longer has access to the chips or technology necessary to manufacture modern military hardware anymore, and I could go on for several pages about this.

The US Secretary of Defense has already said Russia will not be allowed to leave Ukraine, and Ukraine has already said they will not stop until they reclaim every square meter of their territory including Crimea. Think Afghanistan, but will full support including financial and military aid from the entire Western world, plus a bunch of battle hardened Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting for their very freedom and homeland. now put that up against a bunch of ill trained conscripts / reservists who have no desire to be there and are suffering from very low morale.

It doesn't take a genious to figure out how this goes. Russia was expecting to take Kiev within the first week or two, and it's 7 months in now and Ukraine is pushing Russia back in loads of regions at the moment. Russia being able to take Odessa and Kiev is a total pipe dream, much less going into Poland or Romania.

Ukraine mobilized 1 mln and already lost over 65K. They mobilized all - from 18 till 60. Also they started to mobilize woman (medics, biologists, chemists, journalists). Population is almost drained.

Winter is coming. Green forests what are shelters for Ukrainian army will be transparent soon. Drones will wait for them.

[cdnmatt]

More than likely, Ukraine will be getting battle tanks from the West shortly such as Leopard 2 which so far the West has been unwilling to send. Let's see how that goes.

[Moses]

More than likely, Ukraine will be getting battle tanks from the West shortly such as Leopard 2 which so far the West has been unwilling to send. Let's see how that goes.

Whatever. 145:25. Now is going 7th wave of Ukrainian mobilizations. End is unavoidable. West is fighting with Russia "till last Ukrainian".

[cdnmatt]

So far, Ukraine has been holding up just fine with Western aid, and that doesn't seem like it's going to stop any time soon.

Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs was even on the Late Show with Steven Colbert a few days ago, and he doesn't seem detered at all:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjUHY2XgIxE

[Moses]

So far, Ukraine has been holding up just fine with Western aid, and that doesn't seem like it's going to stop any time soon.

Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs was even on the Late Show with Steven Colbert a few days ago, and he doesn't seem detered at all:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjUHY2XgIxE

Exactly that I call "war till last Ukrainian".

Ukraine already lost about 70,000 sq.km of territory, tens thousands of soldiers, but regime what still is in power only because of Western support, insists "we may win" and calls for 7th mobilization.

Well, 145:25, time is working in favor of Russia.

New elections will be in Italy in 2 weeks. Right and conservators will win. They already announced quit from sanctions and limitation of support of Ukraine.

By the way Matt, yesterday Biden started to talk about next sanctions. After his speech ruble become 4% stronger.