The Brink of War?

[Dodger]

Here's a single sentence taken from the article linked below which pretty much sums up reality:

......"a military that needs North Korean shells and St Petersburg convicts is at best down to the bare minimum strength needed to protect Russia itself".

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/13/e...ntl/index.html

Regardless if Putin is concerned with this or not, his decisions going forward could put Russia in an even worse situation. Up until now all the fighting, bloodshed, and mass destruction, has been across the border in Ukraine - but I wonder what would happen if Ukraine launched a major offensive against Russia? More nuclear saber rattling? Or, in reality, does Russia's nuclear might mirror that of it's unmaintained and obviously weak Military? If so, they should probably start thinking about piling up some sandbags along their border.

[latintopxxx]

i do hope that putin the mad gets deposed soon and packed off to a nice cosy igloo in siberia so that someone realistically normal can govern Russia....

[Dragonman]

Here's a single sentence taken from the article linked below which pretty much sums up reality:

......"a military that needs North Korean shells and St Petersburg convicts is at best down to the bare minimum strength needed to protect Russia itself".

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/13/e...ntl/index.html

Regardless if Putin is concerned with this or not, his decisions going forward could put Russia in an even worse situation. Up until now all the fighting, bloodshed, and mass destruction, has been across the border in Ukraine - but I wonder what would happen if Ukraine launched a major offensive against Russia? More nuclear saber rattling? Or, in reality, does Russia's nuclear might mirror that of it's unmaintained and obviously weak Military? If so, they should probably start thinking about piling up some sandbags along their border.

Although Russia has the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, an estimated 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022. Of this number, though, deployed missiles number about 1,588, and the remainder are either in reserve stockpiles, or have been retired and are marked for dismantling. Whether those deployed are actually capable of being fired is a great unknown, though they have looked good in various Russian military parades.

Statistica (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ead-inventory/) states that the three NATO nuclear powers - France, Great Britain, and the USA - have a total of 4,172 nuclear weapons in 2022, with 3,708 of these nuclear warheads beloning to the US.

In this context, NATO's Ballistic Missile Defence systems, due to have been completed in 2020, becomes of interest. The NATO website (Ballistic missile defence, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm) was updated on 26 January, 2022, at 11:42, but stops short of stating whether the target was achieved. The key five functions of the system, when fully operational, are: planning; monitoring; information sharing; interception; and consequence management (https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2...eet-bmd-en.pdf).

There are numerous videos on YouTube on the theme of the likeklihood and effcts of a nuclear war initiated by Russia, the outcomes of none of which is particularly inviting.

[Dodger]

There are numerous videos on YouTube on the theme of the likeklihood and effcts of a nuclear war initiated by Russia, the outcomes of none of which is particularly inviting.

Hopefully the Russian people will take care of "containing" Putin before any of this would come even close to happening.

[Moses]

Hopefully the Russian people will take care of "containing" Putin before any of this would come even close to happening.

Results of past weekend elections in Russia, dark blue - pro-Putin party "United Russia":




Is is how Duma (Russian parliament) looks now since 2021

1663174440241.jpg

[Andy]

There is no such thing as elections in Russia for a long time.

[Dodger]

i do hope that putin the mad gets deposed soon and packed off to a nice cosy igloo in siberia so that someone realistically normal can govern Russia....

Agree.

When I read a news release yesterday describing how some of the Russian soldiers had changed into civilian clothes and were retreating to safety on bicycles they had stolen from local villagers - I was left with this vision of what's really at stake. And that's thousands of young (and adorable) Russian boys who would much prefer riding bicycles around the countryside enjoying life than dodging rockets and fighting with people who they don't even necessarily dislike. What's wrong with this picture?

Maybe when Putin is gone (this afternoon wouldn't be soon enough) they'll be able to hold a REAL election and put a Gay in charge who understands the true value of these young men.

I have never once since day one harbored any bad feelings about the Russian soldiers and hope for their sake Putin's War will end soon so they can get back to enjoying life like the rest of us.

[Moses]

When I read a news release yesterday describing how some of the Russian soldiers had changed into civilian clothes and were retreating to safety on bicycles they had stolen from local villagers - I was left with this vision of what's really at stake. And that's thousands of young (and adorable) Russian boys who would much prefer riding bicycles around the countryside enjoying life than dodging rockets and fighting with people who they don't even necessarily dislike. What's wrong with this picture?

Average age of contractors is 30 yo. And it was exactly their choice to sign contract and participate in military operation. So they "much prefer" to destroy Nazi in Ukraine.

[Moses]

U.S. shale gas and shale oil companies have warned they will not be able to ramp up supplies to Europe this winter. Their words are quoted by the Financial Times. According to the newspaper, the capacity for the extraction of these resources in the United States is already at the limit.

“It doesn't look like the US can pump more... Help will not come. Not from the gas producers, not from the oil producers,” said Wil Wen Lo, head of the private equity group at Quantum Energy Partners. Scott Sheffield, chief executive of the oil company Pioneer Natural Resources (one of the largest oil producers in the United States) adheres to the same position. “We're not opening new rigs and I don't see anyone else doing it,” he said.

http://www.ft.com/content/ef4fb2b8-1...f-13e98c769e63

[Dragonman]

Average age of contractors is 30 yo. And it was exactly their choice to sign contract and participate in military operation. So they "much prefer" to destroy Nazi in Ukraine.

Insofar as "they "much prefer" to destroy Nazi in Ukraine," that is probably because it is preferable to the "fourth Russia" (Zubarevich, Natalia, “Four Russias: the new Political reality,” Open Democracy, 1 February 2016. Four Russias: the new political reality | openDemocracy; https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr...tical-reality/) from which they come: "This is Russia beyond the big cities, in localities like Biysk or Porkhov. It’s all those townlets with a grey-on-grey color scheme and roads like they’ve just been bombed. Born there? Your alcoholic father has quite possibly been beating up your granny for her $150 pension, and junkies were doing salt in the back of your class in the eighth grade. Collection of scrap metal was an honorable alternative to petty theft, though the metal had to be stolen anyway. Your social circle was all sporting Adidas tracksuits, a third had done jail time. Chances are, you knew someone who killed someone. You sure knew someone who drank themselves to death (maybe it was your dad). And in lieu of the older generation to look up to, you got dames with permed hair, bloated from their cheap macaroni diet, hunched and dead-eyed before they turn 40. Somewhere, people were driving Ferraris, but you stood as much chance of becoming them as hitching a ride on the SpaceX Dragon. Not that you know what it is.
It's the young men from these low places who comprise a disproportionate percentage of the Russian invading force in Ukraine. Coupled with the simple fact that war breeds atrocity, especially a retro war like this one, is there any wonder that so many Russian soldiers, especially rank-and-file — but also some commanders from the same world — have turned to unspeakable crimes? Unspeakable to you and me, maybe; to them, it was just another Thursday — even in peacetime. The few who somehow picked up the importance of morals in spite of everything bailed out and never looked back. Or are dead. Morals are not conducive to survival in Biysk and Porkhov." (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...ukraine-a77423).