The Brink of War?

[Andy]

Maybe because our grandfathers and fathers did the same in 1941-1945

That was nearly 80 years ago and this time no one invaded our country unless i missing something.

[Moses]

4. Despite the dezinformatsiya (дезинформация) invented by Stalin and spread by Putin, Ukrainian members of this Division were NOT Nazis. NAZI is a contraction of Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (NSDAP), or the National Socialist German Workers’ Party. To be a Nazi, someone had to be a member of the NSDAP. To become a member of the NSDAP, a person had to be either (a) a German national, or (b) a member of an approved Volksdeutsche group, i.e. “people whose language and culture had German origins but who did not hold German citizenship.” So, by the rules of the Nazi Party, there were no Ukrainian Nazis.

Whole SS has been declared war criminals by Nurnberg without any exempts.

[Moses]

As the answer to embargo on export to Russia chips and processors, Russia declared ban of export gas neon.

Neon is used in lasers for lithography during chips and processors manufacturing. Russia controls 90% of neon import to US (Russia 100% supplies neon to 2 Ukrainian purification plants which supply US) and about 60-65% of world neon market. Rest of neon market is controlled by China.

Since February neon prices grew 4 times already.

I think at next few weeks we will hear about processors and chips embargo lifting.

[Dragonman]

Whole SS has been declared war criminals by Nurnberg without any exempts.

While it is correct that the International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg Trial declared the SS "a criminal organization" in 1946, this is just another example of your continued practice of citing past events (in this case, 75 years ago) to justify present activities - something for which you have criticized others, including me.

[Moses]

While it is correct that the International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg Trial declared the SS "a criminal organization" in 1946, this is just another example of your continued practice of citing past events (in this case, 75 years ago) to justify present activities - something for which you have criticized others, including me.

I'm critic of your habit to bring outdated news, because situation that you cited already has been changed. Nothing is changed since Nurnberg decision to declare whole SS "war criminal" - they are still war criminals.

[Dragonman]

As the answer to embargo on export to Russia chips and processors, Russia declared ban of export gas neon.

Neon is used in lasers for lithography during chips and processors manufacturing. Russia controls 90% of neon import to US (Russia 100% supplies neon to 2 Ukrainian purification plants which supply US) and about 60-65% of world neon market. Rest of neon market is controlled by China.

Since February neon prices grew 4 times already.

I think at next few weeks we will hear about processors and chips embargo lifting.

Actually, as Reuters reported two day ago, Russia "limits" exports of noble gases, a key ingredient for making chips," until the end of 2022 to strengthen its market position. A limitation is not an embargo (which is an official ban on trade or other commercial activity with a particular country), and "Exports of noble gases, which Russia used to supply to Japan and other countries, will be allowed only with special state permission until Dec. 31, the Russian government said on May 30" (https://www.reuters.com/technology/r...ps-2022-06-02/).

The Reuters report also cites the Russian Trade Ministry representative as saying "Russia accounts for 30% of the global supply of three noble gases - neon, krypton and xenon, according to the ministry's estimate."

This limitation will make it more difficult for Russia to obtain chips at any price. It has already been widely reported that, since the announcement of restrictions on technology exports in February 2022, that Russia has had difficulty obtaining microchips to replenish its supply of precision guided munitions (including reports it is using chips from home appliances, washing machines and refrigerators - https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...fect-military/). If such home appliances break down and cannot be repaired, the mood of the great Russian public towards the "special military operation" may change, leading to domestic dissatisfaction with the war and with the current political regime.

Firms like Rostselmash (whose share of the world's combine harvester market you boasted about earlier) and Avtovaz (maker of the Lada Niva) which rely on imported electronic components have had to shut down already (https://www.motor1.com/news/572548/l...halted-russia/). Russian military weapons (from its Pantsir air defense systems to its Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopters) are packed with foreign micro-chips (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ign-microchips), and repairing or replacing them has just got more difficult.

Taiwanese semi-conductor manufacturers TSMC and UMC (which together accounted for almost 75% of the global market by revenue in 2021 - Statistica) are known to regularly conduct risk assessments of all critical materials, and are careful to always have up to a year's supply of the most important gases like neon and argon on hand or secured through contracts. The two companies have also been looking for alternative sources of such gases since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure production continuity. Most chip-makers, including those in Taiwan, have already kept high levels of neon on hand because of the previous shock of likely Russia-Ukraine tensions in and after 2014. Suppliers have also developed ways to use recycled neon. And "Russia is a small market for the chip industry and its invasion of Ukraine doesn’t represent a threat to global chip supplies, America’s Semiconductor Industry Association said on Thursday, February 24th" - https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/taiwan...ine-war-risks/).

I assume that the competent Russian authorities have considered the effect of this decision on the economies of those countries which have not declared sanctions on Russia but which rely on micro-chips in their own domestic economies and daily lives - and how they might react?

I expect you will have to wait more than the "next few weeks" to "hear about processors and chips embargo lifting." The "next few weeks" may be something like Putin's claim "Russian forces 'could conquer Ukraine capital in two weeks" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...kiev-fortnight) (and Yes, I acknowledge the claim was in 2014, but this year seems important in your Russian mythology).

[Moses]

Actually, as Reuters reported two day ago, Russia "limits" exports of noble gases, a key ingredient for making chips," until the end of 2022 to strengthen its market position. A limitation is not an embargo (which is an official ban on trade or other commercial activity with a particular country), and "Exports of noble gases, which Russia used to supply to Japan and other countries, will be allowed only with special state permission until Dec. 31, the Russian government said on May 30" (https://www.reuters.com/technology/r...ps-2022-06-02/).

The Reuters report also cites the Russian Trade Ministry representative as saying "Russia accounts for 30% of the global supply of three noble gases - neon, krypton and xenon, according to the ministry's estimate."

This limitation will make it more difficult for Russia to obtain chips at any price. It has already been widely reported that, since the announcement of restrictions on technology exports in February 2022, that Russia has had difficulty obtaining microchips to replenish its supply of precision guided munitions (including reports it is using chips from home appliances, washing machines and refrigerators - https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...fect-military/). If such home appliances break down and cannot be repaired, the mood of the great Russian public towards the "special military operation" may change, leading to domestic dissatisfaction with the war and with the current political regime.

Firms like Rostselmash (whose share of the world's combine harvester market you boasted about earlier) and Avtovaz (maker of the Lada Niva) which rely on imported electronic components have had to shut down already (https://www.motor1.com/news/572548/l...halted-russia/). Russian military weapons (from its Pantsir air defense systems to its Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopters) are packed with foreign micro-chips (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ign-microchips), and repairing or replacing them has just got more difficult.

Taiwanese semi-conductor manufacturers TSMC and UMC (which together accounted for almost 75% of the global market by revenue in 2021 - Statistica) are known to regularly conduct risk assessments of all critical materials, and are careful to always have up to a year's supply of the most important gases like neon and argon on hand or secured through contracts. The two companies have also been looking for alternative sources of such gases since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure production continuity. Most chip-makers, including those in Taiwan, have already kept high levels of neon on hand because of the previous shock of likely Russia-Ukraine tensions in and after 2014. Suppliers have also developed ways to use recycled neon. And "Russia is a small market for the chip industry and its invasion of Ukraine doesn’t represent a threat to global chip supplies, America’s Semiconductor Industry Association said on Thursday, February 24th" - https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/taiwan...ine-war-risks/).

I assume that the competent Russian authorities have considered the effect of this decision on the economies of those countries which have not declared sanctions on Russia but which rely on micro-chips in their own domestic economies and daily lives - and how they might react?

I expect you will have to wait more than the "next few weeks" to "hear about processors and chips embargo lifting." The "next few weeks" may be something like Putin's claim "Russian forces 'could conquer Ukraine capital in two weeks" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...kiev-fortnight) (and Yes, I acknowledge the claim was in 2014, but this year seems important in your Russian mythology).

again a lot of lines from February...

dear, could you please use Google tools and limit there to at least May?

whole industry is in panic already, even Intel:

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger warns microprocessor shortages likely to run into 2024 due to Ukraine invasion and China lockdowns.
https://supplychaindigital.com/logis...queezes-supply

And that was even before Russian neon embargo (that you call "limitation"). Are you so naïve to think what Russia will sell neon to "unfriendly" countries? All joined to sanction countries will meet countersanctions.

Russian minister clearly stated in political correct words what will be next, read him:
"We plan to increase our production capacity (of noble gases) in the near future. We believe that we will have an opportunity to be heard in this global chain, and this will give us some competitive advantage if it is necessary to build mutually beneficial negotiations with our colleagues," Shpak said.

[Dragonman]

I'm critic of your habit to bring outdated news, because situation that you cited already has been changed. Nothing is changed since Nurnberg decision to declare whole SS "war criminal" - they are still war criminals.

My habit - it is you and Putin who keep referring to events from WWII and 2014 as an excuse for the current special military operation!

Any person who was a member of the Waffen-SS when it was disbanded on 8 May 1945 or a former member when declared a criminal organization in 1946 is long dead, so "were" would be the correct past tense form.

[Moses]

My habit - it is you and Putin who keep referring to events from [..] 2014 as an excuse for the current special military operation!

Any person who was a member of the Waffen-SS when it was disbanded on 8 May 1945 or a former member when declared a criminal organization in 1946 is long dead, so "were" would be the correct past tense form.

Protests in Germany against sending weapons to Ukraine

_methode_times_prod_web_bin_e8bbfd6a-c215-11ec-b4e3-203ad1be3cbc.jpg

[Dragonman]

again a lot of lines from February...

dear, could you please use Google tools and limit there to at least May?

whole industry is in panic already, even Intel:

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger warns microprocessor shortages likely to run into 2024 due to Ukraine invasion and China lockdowns.
https://supplychaindigital.com/logis...queezes-supply

And that was even before Russian neon embargo (that you call "limitation"). Are you so naïve to think what Russia will sell neon to "unfriendly" countries? All joined to sanction countries will meet countersanctions.

Russian minister clearly stated in political correct words what will be next, read him:
"We plan to increase our production capacity (of noble gases) in the near future. We believe that we will have an opportunity to be heard in this global chain, and this will give us some competitive advantage if it is necessary to build mutually beneficial negotiations with our colleagues," Shpak said.

I will limit sources quoted to May 2022 if you stop quoting events in WWII and/or 2014.

The "whole industry" is not in a panic - the news hasn't yet been mentioned in Taiwanese press - using Google's 24 hour limit on reports.

Do you seriously think that the present "special military operation" will last another two years and affect microprocessor availability in 2024?

I didn't call it a "limitation" - "limit" and "restriction" are the terms used in English-language reports such as, e.g., this from Tass, "3 Jun, 02:36
Inert gas export restriction to strengthen Russia’s position on microelectronics market. Russia restricted exports of inert gases, including neon, to unfriendly states in late May" (https://tass.com/economy/1459877?utm...rer=google.com).

I never mentioned anything about Russia selling to "unfriendly nations" in my posting, but those are the words used in reports such as that from Tass referenced above. But Deputy Trade Minister Vasily Shpak is quoted as saying, "Exports of noble gases, which Russia used to supply to Japan and other countries, will be allowed only with special state permission until Dec. 31, the Russian government said on May 30 (https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/russ...172858402.html). I though Japan was one of those "unfriendly countries."

Deputy Trade Minister Vasily Shpak may say such things - you didn't actually provide a link to the source, though, so I found another one at https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...r-making-chips. But we already know how well the present Russian government's plans work - like that for the rapid conquest of Ukraine.

However, you should note that all of the noble gases are present in Earth’s atmosphere and, except for helium and radon, their major commercial source is the air, from which they are obtained by liquefaction and fractional distillation. Most helium is produced commercially from certain natural gas wells in the US, Qatar, etc. Radon usually is isolated as a product of the radioactive decomposition of radium compounds. Other countries can, and probably will, ramp up their production of those noble gases that are present in the world's atmosphere, and seek alternatives to helium (such as argon and hydrogen where its flammable nature is not an issue) where possible - and go with party balloons filled with it. Moreover, as I noted in my earlier post, firms have been introducing ways of conserving, recovering and recycling neon in chip manufacturing since its price rose in 2014 from roughly $1,000 for a 6,000-liter bottle of the gas, to approximately $6,000 for the same quantity in late 2015. when Russia seized Crimea.

Been there, done that, got the T-shirt.