The Brink of War?

[Dragonman]

Sure-sure. Rebelling pilot may drop to Putin pilot's shoes...

Who is stupid enough to talk about air strike? All aircrafts are checked in bases by FSB, all pilots are at least in colonel rang, there are no ammo on aircrafts.

Maxim Babenko, a photographer from the North Caucasus, produced a 2016 cinematic series entitled "Russian Fighter Pilots" which provides a look at just what it takes to become a LIEUTENANT (emphasis added) commanding a plane (His Facebook page is https://www.facebook.com/maximbabenkorussia/).

Moreover, flying a war plane requires a great number of flying hours - something most Russian pilots don't seem to have ( J. Bronk, (4 March 2022). "Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?" Royal United Services Institute. D. Axe, David. "Russian Pilots Have No Choice But To Fly Straight Through Ukraine's Man-Portable Missiles". Forbes).

The fact that "all pilots are at least of colonel rank" is irrelevant. Generals often orchestrate coups but colonels execute them. Colonel is the rank where politics start and is the highest rank with direct command and connection with troops. If the coup attempt fails, lower ranks take the blame. It was Colonel Reza Khan who, in 1921 led the coup that brought the Pahlavi dynasty to power in Iran. The coup that overthrew the Greek monarchy is known as The Colonels Coup. It was a coup led by a colonel that overthrew the Obrenovic dynasty in Serbia in 1902. Putin has been preparing for a palace coup since he came to power, which is why the Federal Security Service (FSB) has been strengthened and why Putin sits so far away from his own officials.

And it was a coup orchestrated by what I believe is called the "siloviki" that led to the downfall of Mikhail Gorbachev and the crumbling of the USSR. Putin, with his KGB background, must be aware of that, as the siloviki still exist. If they feel threatened by this slowly unfolding catastrophe that Putin has unleashed on Russia, who is to say they won't turn on him to protect themselves and their families?

And if Putin wasn't afraid of an air strike, what was he afraid of - a little rain? In previous years, if bad weather was an issue, Putin has dispatched a fleet of 'weather-changing' aircraft to spike the clouds with a chemical cocktail of silver iodide, liquid nitrogen and dry ice to ensure rain stayed away from Red Square - but not on this Monday!

[Moses]

Maxim Babenko, a photographer from the North Caucasus, produced a 2016 cinematic series entitled "Russian Fighter Pilots" which provides a look at just what it takes to become a LIEUTENANT (emphasis added) commanding a plane (His Facebook page is https://www.facebook.com/maximbabenkorussia/).

Moreover, flying a war plane requires a great number of flying hours - something most Russian pilots don't seem to have ( J. Bronk, (4 March 2022). "Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?" Royal United Services Institute. D. Axe, David. "Russian Pilots Have No Choice But To Fly Straight Through Ukraine's Man-Portable Missiles". Forbes).

The fact that "all pilots are at least of colonel rank" is irrelevant. Generals often orchestrate coups but colonels execute them. Colonel is the rank where politics start and is the highest rank with direct command and connection with troops. If the coup attempt fails, lower ranks take the blame. It was Colonel Reza Khan who, in 1921 led the coup that brought the Pahlavi dynasty to power in Iran. The coup that overthrew the Greek monarchy is known as The Colonels Coup. It was a coup led by a colonel that overthrew the Obrenovic dynasty in Serbia in 1902. Putin has been preparing for a palace coup since he came to power, which is why the Federal Security Service (FSB) has been strengthened and why Putin sits so far away from his own officials.

And it was a coup orchestrated by what I believe is called the "siloviki" that led to the downfall of Mikhail Gorbachev and the crumbling of the USSR. Putin, with his KGB background, must be aware of that, as the siloviki still exist. If they feel threatened by this slowly unfolding catastrophe that Putin has unleashed on Russia, who is to say they won't turn on him to protect themselves and their families?

And if Putin wasn't afraid of an air strike, what was he afraid of - a little rain? In previous years, if bad weather was an issue, Putin has dispatched a fleet of 'weather-changing' aircraft to spike the clouds with a chemical cocktail of silver iodide, liquid nitrogen and dry ice to ensure rain stayed away from Red Square - but not on this Monday!

we are talking not about regular pilots, but about pilots who controls aircrafts during flights over Moscow, which are forbidden in normal time... Only high trained pilots with big experience...

look here who are pilots:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swifts_(aerobatic_team)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Knights

nAgWUB67nUJkzJ7jP6aP_pjwmoft-dvtg32Qhv2YqzbZJC3PU2mchDZh84he-A6e_YaM932QJZ8sAOiwyGZyKSGW9W9N_wjJ.jpg

[dab69]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tall-pers...102227444.html

The Daily Beast
‘It’s as Tall as a Person’: Russians Reveal Their Secret Dump of Dead Soldiers in Donetsk


The Daily Beast
‘It’s as Tall as a Person’: Russians Reveal Their Secret Dump of Dead Soldiers in Donetsk
Allison Quinn
Tue, May 10, 2022, 5:22 AM·2 min read
In this article:

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Russian authorities in Ukraine’s occupied city of Donetsk are tossing the bodies of their dead soldiers in a secret dump “by the thousands” and charging their loved ones money to find them.

That’s according to a new audio recording released by Ukraine’s Security Service on Tuesday, which is purportedly an intercepted telephone conversation between two Russians discussing how one of their missing friends was finally found.

In the two-and-a-half minute recording, an unidentified man tells his female relative that the fate of “Inna’s brother” is finally known after he went missing a month ago.

“It’s better that you don’t hear this,” the man says at first, reluctant to spill all the grim details.

After more urging, he finally explains that the unidentified dead man’s “sister went to Donetsk, and there, basically, roughly speaking, is a dump.”

The Only Winners at Putin’s Victory Day Parade? The Hackers Who Took Over Russian TV

“They just toss them there. And then later it’s easier to make as if they disappeared without a trace. It’s easier for them to pretend they are just missing, and that’s it,” he said, noting that “there are thousands.”

“There’s nowhere left to place them. It’s a dump. I’m telling you in plain Russian—a dump. It’s as tall as a person,” he said, adding that the site is “fenced off, sealed, they don’t let anyone in.”

According to him, the only reason local authorities at the dump site let the woman find her brother was because she paid “good money.”

Watch: Wiretaps appear catch Russian soldiers sabotaging their own equipment

After that, he said, “they rearranged it until she found [the body.]”

“It’s not a morgue, it’s a dump.… They are bringing [bodies] by the thousands,” he said, calling it a “shitshow.”

[Dragonman]

we are talking not about regular pilots, but about pilots who controls aircrafts during flights over Moscow, which are forbidden in normal time... Only high trained pilots with big experience...

look here who are pilots:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swifts_(aerobatic_team)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Knights

nAgWUB67nUJkzJ7jP6aP_pjwmoft-dvtg32Qhv2YqzbZJC3PU2mchDZh84he-A6e_YaM932QJZ8sAOiwyGZyKSGW9W9N_wjJ.jpg

Earlier you stated that "the pilots are all colonel rang (sic)", and now cite a Wikipedia entry for the aerobatic team, whose names were given as:

• Selutin Viktor Markovich, Guards colonel, “Strizhi” aerobatic team commander. Tail wingman, team leader
• Morozov Valeriy Anatolyevich, Guards lieutenant colonel, “Strizhi” aerobatic team master pilot. Team leader
• Sokolov Igor Evgenevich, Guards lieutenant colonel, aerobatic team deputy commander. Left wingman
• Osyaikin Sergey Ivanovich, Guards lieutenant colonel, “Strizhi” aerobatic team master pilot. Right wingman
• Koposov Dmitriy Alexandrovich, Guards lieutenant colonel, aerobatic team deputy commander. Right wingman, single aerobatic, extreme flying
• Prohorov Aleksey Vladimirovich, Guards lieutenant colonel, “Strizhi” aerobatic team master pilot, left wingman
• Vasiliev Sergey Alekseevich, Guards lieutenant colonel, “Strizhi” aerobatic team master pilot
• Kuznetsov Denis, Captain, “Strizhi” aerobatic team pilot

That is, one colonel, six lieutenant colonels and one captain. The etymology literally means "place holder." A "Lieutenant" is a deputy or substitute acting for a superior, and lieutenant colonels rank below colonels.The Wikipedia entry also states, "The team roster today unchanged since 2008." That means either the Colonel Selutin was not a colonel when appointed or that promotion is painfully slow for this elite group. But, either way, your original comment was incorrect.

The Wikipedia entry on the Russian Knights aerobatic display team explains why Putin cancelled the flypast in all the Russian cities for which they were planned. It states, "On December 12, 1995, disaster struck as three team jets flew in-formation into a mountainside near Cam Ranh, Vietnam during approach while en route to home from a Malaysian airshow during adverse weather conditions." Putin obviously was afraid that all the aircraft in all the display teams would fly into mountains in adverse weather conditions, including the mountains around Moscow. Moscow is situated on one of the largest plains in the world. A mountain is usually defined as being over 300 meters or 1000 feet high. The four named "mountains" in Moscow are all under 300 meters, the highest being Visokaya at 262 meters and the lowest being Bolshoi Krilatsii Holm at 88 meters. What does this suggest for the efficacy of Putin's Il-80 airborne strategic command and control post ‘doomsday plane’ - that it couldn't fly safely in post-nuclear war conditions?

As you quoted Wikipedia, so will I. Its entry on flypast lists only two accidents or incidents. One was in Canberra, Australia, in 2003 over Parliament House by two F-111 jets, celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Australian High Court. It manifested itself as "two thunderously loud balls of flame screaming overhead at a height of about 300 metres and heading toward the city's landmarks." There are five mountain ranges near Canberra. The second incident was in Goa, India, during a ceremonial flypast to mark the silver jubilee of the Naval Air Squadron 315 in 2002, the wingtips of two Ilyushin aircraft brushed in mid-air, with the subsequent loss of life. Maybe it is because his doomsday aircraft is an Ilyushin II-80 that had him worried, given that it is basically a modified Ilyushin-86, a plane with a history of accidents and incidents.

[dab69]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...wcD?li=BBorjTa

The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine



The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them. The rapid destruction of around three dozen tanks and other armored vehicles, along with the bridge itself, underscores Russia’s deepening woes as its troops try, and fail, to make meaningful gains in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

“We still assess Russian ground force in the Donbas to be slow and uneven,” an unnamed U.S. Defense Department official told reporters on Tuesday. The Russians’ inability to cross rivers might explain their sloth.

The Siverskyi Donets, which threads from southern Russia into eastern Ukraine then back into Russia, is just one of several water barriers Russian battalions must cross in order to advance west into Ukrainian-held territory. According to the Ukrainian armed forces’ general staff, the battalion that got caught at the pontoon bridge apparently was trying to strike at Lyman, a city of 20,000 that lies 17 miles west of the doomed pontoon bridge.

The Ukrainian army’s 17th Tank Brigade spotted the crossing, perhaps using one of the many small drones that function as the Ukrainian army’s eyes over the battlefield. The 17th is one of the army’s four active tank brigades. Its four line battalions operate T-64 tanks and BMP fighting vehicles. But it was the brigade’s artillery battalion with its 2S1 122-millimeter howitzers that apparently got first crack at the Russian bridge.

The 17th’s shelling destroyed at least seven T-72 and T-80 tanks, 17 BMPs, seven MT-LB armored tractors, five other vehicles and much of the bridging unit itself, including a tugboat and the pontoon span.

It’s unclear how many Russians died or were wounded, but it’s worth noting that no battalion can lose three-quarters of its vehicles and remain capable of operations. In one strike, the Ukrainians removed from the battlefield one of roughly the 99 Russian battalion tactical groups in Ukraine.

In the aftermath of their defeat, local Russian forces are sticking to their side of the river, “trying to hold positions on the right bank,” according to the general staff in Kyiv. The disastrous river-crossing comes as Russian forces also are retreating away from the city of Kharkiv, farther north.

To be fair to Moscow, crossing any water obstacle during wartime is dangerous. The Ukrainians can claim perhaps the most lopsided victory over an enemy bridging effort, but the Russians have knocked out some Ukrainian bridges, too.
Topics for you

[Moses]

Bloomberg today: Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency

Capital controls imposed by Russia have turned the ruble into the world’s best performing currency this year, though not many people can pocket a profit on the rally.

The ruble resumed its advance against the dollar on Wednesday as the Moscow Exchange reopened after two days of public holiday. It’s now up more than 11% against the US dollar since the start of the year, surpassing the real’s 9% advance to become the top gainer among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The offshore rate is up even more, about 12%.

Did you said "sanctions"?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-best-currency

[dab69]

They'll need it for war reparations to Ukraine...

[Moses]

They'll need it for war reparations to Ukraine...

reparations? oh, yes, EU and US already started to pay. Latest news: 40 bln from US.

[Dragonman]

Bloomberg today: Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency



Did you said "sanctions"?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-best-currency

Enjoy the illusion of success while you can. And perhaps think about what the Bloomberg article's following sentences really mean: "Capital controls imposed by Russia have turned the ruble into the world’s best performing currency this year, though not many people can pocket a profit on the rally." And the later paragraph: "Strategists say the rally isn’t credible as many currency-trading shops have stopped dealing in the ruble on the grounds that its value seen on monitors is not the price it can be traded at in the real world." In other words, no-one is buying rubles.

This month-old report from Reuters puts any gains of the Russian ruble in perspective - "Analysis: Russia's ruble rebound is not as real as it seems" (https://www.reuters.com/business/rus...ms-2022-04-01/). It outlines why the ruble rebound has happened, but concludes "In the longer term, the ruble's fortunes look less favorable. Ostracism from the West is likely to mean fewer buyers for Russia's exports, and should oil prices tumble the ruble will struggle. With half its $640 billion of gold and foreign exchange reserves frozen, Russia has less much scope to defend the currency."

Even Al Jazeera reported that "The Russian threat to dollar hegemony is nothing but a fantasy. We are not witnessing the dawn of a new post-dollar world" (https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...-but-a-fantasy). The report also states why the ruble is not really as strong as it appears from the Russian perspective, noting " In countries neighbouring Russia, which have seen an influx of Moscow and Saint Petersburg’s intelligentsia in the aftermath of the war, the real ruble rate available at most cash counters is far lower than the official rate."

For Putin's oligarch friends, the report includes this snide comment: "At home, however, Russia has slightly eased currency convertibility. Russians can now transfer $10,000 abroad per month, though this is of course far too little to fill a single super yacht’s tank." Of course, with most of the super yachts impounded, this is now probably the least of an oligarch's worries as "Dozens of sanctioned super yachts seized from Russian oligarchs and collectively worth billions could rapidly waste away without crews to maintain them" (https://www.businessinsider.com/what...e-crews-2022-3).

You should also note that Russian imposition of foreign exchange controls is possible under international agreements only because its economy (like that of Belarus and Ukraine) is a "transitional economy" under "Article 14" (the provision in the International Monetary Fund's Articles of Agreement which allows exchange controls only for "transitional economies"). Russia became a IMF member on June 1, 1992. None of the western economies, all of which are members of the IMF, are permitted to impose foreign exchange control. If they could retaliate, Russian rubles would have the same value as toilet paper.

Imposing foreign exchange controls is a sign of a weak and/or developing economy, and puts the Russian ruble at the same level as e.g., the Myanmar kyat ("Myanmar’s new banking rule forces conversion of foreign currencies into Kyat. April 5, 2022. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/myanmar...ies-into-kyat/).

[Moses]

=== In other words, no-one is buying rubles. ===

Yes-yes. No one buys. Exactly that why today Italian PM Drahi told today "to buy gas for rubles doesn't break sanctions". Exactly that why demands of rubles pushes rubles stronger. And off-shore demands are even stronger than on-shore. See Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...et-split-grows

Your quote are one month old, but situation changing every day. First it was "Nobody will buy gas, oil and so on", then was situation "Nobody will buy oil" - when EU realized what it can't survive without Russian gas. Late there was situation "Nobody will buy gas for rubles"...

Wait for 2-3 months. You will hear at first "nobody will buy Russian wheat". then it will be changed to "Nobody will buy Russian wheat for rubles".... and then again ruble will became stronger, because Russia is responsible for 25% of World wheat export, where prices for wheat are already 60% higher than in 2021...

I told in December yet, when here were a lot of gentleman with high razed chins and too much proud about own economy: nobody can exclude Russia from global economy - Russia is world global supplier on many critical markets, that why sanctions are supported only by 19% of World nations.