The Brink of War?

[cdnmatt]

One more "bad" news: Russian economy could weather impact of EU oil ban https://www.ft.com/content/82dfa0f1-...7-29c69f6938c3

Great, go be a big North Korea and act tough. Nobody else gives a shit.

The Russian military is quite obviously a joke. Now that they're on the "second phase" of the operatioh and concentrating all energy on eastern Ukraine, the gains are still minimal at best. Putin definitely isn't getting the victory speech he was hoping for on May 9th.

Your generals are dropping like flies, soldiers have to loot grocery stores and corner markets because they don't have any food, the Russian navy is losing its ships to a country that doesn't even have a navy, loads of reports of Russian soldiers shooting themselves in the leg to get out of the war, and the list is endless.

And to top if off, the sheer inhumane, atrocious and barbaric atrocities the Russian soldiers are leaving in their wake is beyond words. I can promise you that will not get forgotten, because it's so systemic that must have gotten approval from the commanders. These aren't one off incidents. This means that no matter what Russia does, you've already lost.

You do know there's loads of stories out there of Russian soldiers raping 12 year old boys, right?

[Dodger]

Troops sent into Ukraine to back up Russian forces say they had no choice but to leave because Russian military was in shambles and “they deceived us at every step".

They described the situation as being ”utter dysfunction”, i.e., equipment that didn’t work, guns that wouldn’t fire, tanks that wouldn’t roll, no command and control, and even officers who ran when the fighting started. Almost unbelievable circumstances.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/deceived-...122642378.html

The reports coming from these Russian soldiers may or may not be 100% accurate as the “information flow” on both sides of the street is questionable at best, although, this is consistent with the numerous reports describing Russian military deficiencies since this war started, including, but not limited to, accounts of poor logistical planning, lack of preparation and training of ground troops, poor equipment maintenance, i.e., trucks, tanks, armored vehicles, missile launchers, etc, lack of food supplies and ammunition, and serious concerns related to command and control in general.

There is no way of possibly calculating just how much damage Putin has caused by the miscalculations which led to this disaster, but one thing’s for sure: His actions have resulted in a larger, stronger, better equipped, and highly galvanized NATO force in Europe, and forced Russia into a state of total isolation - with crippling sanctions that are already draining Russia's economy. Not to mention all the lives that have been ruined and lost (Ukrainians and Russian) because of his delusional mental state.

[Dodger]

U.S. Intelligence believes it's possible that Putin is preparing to declare war on Ukraine as a means of utilizing Russia's reserve military force. Apparently Putin can not call out his reserve force until a war is officially declared according to Russian law.

The problem with this move is that Russia's reserve force is comprised mostly of conscripts who have received very little training and lack the skills and motivation to go into battle without suffering huge losses. A move like this would be just one more atrocity added to the list of Putin's actions...and his legacy.

If this does happen I feel sorry for the conscripts and their families. If you read the article below you'll gain a better understanding of this:

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-russi...roblem-hazing/

[cdnmatt]

Yeah, according to a Sky News report that popped up on my feed today, Russian reservists have already been getting contacted to check in with their local recruitment center to verify address, status, health, et al.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PcFepWMVDo

I guess we'll find out more on the 9th when Putin gives his Victory Day speech.

[Moses]

Yeah, according to a Sky News report that popped up on my feed today, Russian reservists have already been getting contacted to check in with their local recruitment center to verify address, status, health, et al.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PcFepWMVDo

I guess we'll find out more on the 9th when Putin gives his Victory Day speech.

They do it twice a year - about a month before to start spring or autumn army draw of cadets. Also twice in year they call about 5%-10% of reserves for 1-month training in intention of all reservists should have training once in 5 years.

And most important: by law govt can use reservists only within Russian territory.

[Dodger]

And most important: by law govt can use reservists only within Russian territory.

Interesting.

I wonder if that includes annexed territory, such as Crimea?

[Dragonman]

They do it twice a year - about a month before to start spring or autumn army draw of cadets. Also twice in year they call about 5%-10% of reserves for 1-month training in intention of all reservists should have training once in 5 years.

And most important: by law govt can use reservists only within Russian territory.

Al Jazeera has an interesting report at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ing-in-ukraine on the Russian practice of calling up reservists twice a year. It references the following statement:

MOSCOW, March 8. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin said conscripts and reservists aren’t taking part in Russia’s military operation in Ukraine and won’t do so.
"I would like to emphasize that conscripts aren’t and won’t be taking part in hostilities, and there will be no additional call-up of reservists from the reserve," he said in a video address to women on the occasion of the International Women’s Day celebrated on March 8, which was posted on the Kremlin website. "Missions are carried out only by professional troops."

The Al Jazeera report also states:

"On the first day of the spring conscription, which runs from April 1 to July 15, a government-issued disclaimer appeared in Russian news articles, offering families information on the nature of service: “Conscription events are not related to the special operation in Ukraine.” The articles included a message of reassurance from Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu: “I would like to emphasise that conscripts will not be sent to any hot spots” – a euphemism for the war in Ukraine. But many families remain sceptical and fear their sons may end up on the front of what Moscow has called a “special military operation” in Ukraine."

"In early March, after denying conscripts were being deployed in Ukraine, Russian senator Lyudmila Narusova told the country’s Federal Council she was aware of 100 young soldiers, mostly conscripts, who were forced to sign contracts to serve in Ukraine. Only four were alive, she said."

"Russia’s defence ministry then acknowledged that conscripts had participated in the conflict, with some taken prisoner by the Ukrainian army – but stressed remaining conscripts had been pulled out of the territory. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had launched an investigation into the officials who disobeyed his orders to exclude conscripts from the operation. But since then, reports suggest conscripts are still participating in the war."

"After the sinking of Russia’s flagship Moskva in the Black Sea on April 14, Russian authorities said the entire crew had been evacuated. But Dmitry Shkrebets wrote on social media that his conscript son Yegor had been a cook on the ship, and was now listed as missing in action. “A conscript who was not supposed to take part in hostilities is listed as missing,” he said in a post on VKontakte, Russia’s largest social network."

Plausible deniability is the ability of people, typically senior officials in a formal or informal chain of command, to deny knowledge of or responsibility for something. Increasingly, however, as this special military operation drags on, already lasting 10 times the claimed period during which it was supposed to be concluded, implausible deniability (i.e., denials that do not seem reasonable or probable, or fail to convince) have become to be expected.

[Moses]

Interesting.

I wonder if that includes annexed territory, such as Crimea?

Crimea is Russia by law, so - sure. But Donetsk-Lugansk are recognized by Russia as states, so reserves can't be used there.

[Moses]

"In early March, after denying conscripts were being deployed in Ukraine, Russian senator Lyudmila Narusova told the country’s Federal Council she was aware of 100 young soldiers, mostly conscripts, who were forced to sign contracts to serve in Ukraine. Only four were alive, she said."

"Russia’s defence ministry then acknowledged that conscripts had participated in the conflict, with some taken prisoner by the Ukrainian army – but stressed remaining conscripts had been pulled out of the territory. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had launched an investigation into the officials who disobeyed his orders to exclude conscripts from the operation. But since then, reports suggest conscripts are still participating in the war."

"After the sinking of Russia’s flagship Moskva in the Black Sea on April 14, Russian authorities said the entire crew had been evacuated. But Dmitry Shkrebets wrote on social media that his conscript son Yegor had been a cook on the ship, and was now listed as missing in action. “A conscript who was not supposed to take part in hostilities is listed as missing,” he said in a post on VKontakte, Russia’s largest social network."

Yeah. 23 criminal cases were opened by prosecutors in Russia in 2022 for involving conscripts into military operation. Some seniors officers lost their job because they filled vacant positions in army by conscripts instead of recruiting contractors.

[Dodger]

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Russian conscript: