The Brink of War?

[Dodger]

Hello, where is everyone? Moses? Dodger, cdnmatt? Anyone?

I think everyone's just taking a breather. Operations like this can be so exhausting...good thing it's not a real war.

Hopefully the successful completion of Phase One of Putin's Peace Keeping Mission (in his words only) will mark the beginning of the end of this mess. His military is stretched beyond it's limits...Ukraine is just too well-equipped/motivated/trained to be overtaken...and the distorted vision Putin had of ruling Ukraine has surely evaporated at this point.

Regardless if poor intelligence was to blame for Putin's miscalculations or not, the fact remains that the remaining Russian military does not seem capable of controlling a country the size of Ukraine. Evan Putin, in his delusional state-of-mind, must know this, but he remains determined to find an off-ramp to save face.

Personably, I don't think there is an off-ramp. Zelinski isn't about to make the type of concessions Putin is looking for, and Russia, will at some point, run out of soldiers and money.

The bad news is the only way Putin can delay losing the game (he started) is by not allowing the game to end. If that ends up being the case the fighting in Ukraine's eastern regions could go on until hell freezes over.

[cdnmatt]

the distorted vision Putin had of ruling Ukraine has surely evaporated at this point.

Not so sure about that. He's conscripting another 135,000 teenagers to send them off to the slaughter for his own delusional fantasies.

The kremlin has promised they won't be sent into Ukraine though, and considering how honest they always are, I guess there's nothing to worry about.

[Moses]

===run out of soldiers ====

Right now Russia uses 180 000 - 200 000 soldiers in Ukraine... from 1 100 000

=== and money ===

yesterday Bloomberg's prediction: at 2022 under sanctions Russia will get $321 billions from oil and gas export and it will be $103 billions more than in 2021. Prediction of trade balance is $240 billions. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-keep-flowing

=== He's conscripting another 135,000 teenagers ===
yes, and number is less than in 2021... every year at April 1 and October 1 they call guys who is older than 18 to 1-year training, students are free from training until they will finish to study in UNI or college... any guy may alternate military training to service in hospice, hospital or state houses for elders.

=== to send them off to the slaughter ===
bullshit... to send trainee to any real military operation is criminal here... prosecutors will came very fast... 3 weeks ago there found about 12 trainees in fighting military parts, few officers are now in jail...

2/3 of population supports operation, but if public will found what conscripts are fighting in Ukraine, it will lose support just in one week, and Kremlin knows that. So they watch this and reacting very aggressively on each case where trainee is involved into operation.

And this may very easy to be controlled by public: trainees have mobile phones, every evening they have time to talk with friends and relatives. Soldiers in Ukraine have no phones with them - phones are forbidden because signal may show where military parts are located. So if trainee will not call to home at evening - then parents will start to panic in current situation and will call to officials.

[cdnmatt]

yesterday Bloomberg's prediction: at 2022 under sanctions Russia will get $321 billions from oil and gas export and it will be $103 billions more than in 2021. Prediction of trade balance is $240 billions.

Well, Russia is just on top of the world now, isn't it? You have to actually be able to sell the oil, which means getting it out of younr country:

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ge-2022-03-29/

Due to not being able to get oil out for a multitude of reasons, Russia currently has so much oil it's almost at capacity and close to having to shutdown the pipelines. That wouldn't be good, because you can't just turn those back on like a lightswitch.

[Moses]

You have to actually be able to sell the oil, which means getting it out of younr country:

As per EIA statistics at the week March 19-25 US oil import from Russia to US grew 40%. Russia is second largest oil exporter to US.

[dab69]

Guessing Nalvany was a Nazi also then?

Didn't Nazis control their press also?

[Moses]

Guessing Nalvany was a Nazi also then?

No. He is not ultras even, but yes, he is nationalist. He supports Crimean operation 2014 and counts Crimea Russian territory. Few times he had speeches at meeting of right wings here "Russia for Russians", "Kick off migrants" and so on...



Black-Yellow-White flag - flag of nationalist-patriots here (formerly colors of Russian Imperia)

[cdnmatt]

Looks like Russia is actually moving troops around and will concentrate on the Donbas region. Feel bad for folks in Donbas right now. You know, the folks who Putin swears this invasion is to save.

I wonder if they'll be saved in the same fashion as the folks in Mariupol were saved, and have 90% of their buildings reduced to rubble, follows by the Wagner mercenaries going in?

[Moses]

Looks like Russia is actually moving troops around and will concentrate on the Donbas region. Feel bad for folks in Donbas right now. You know, the folks who Putin swears this invasion is to save.

I wonder if they'll be saved in the same fashion as the folks in Mariupol were saved, and have 90% of their buildings reduced to rubble, follows by the Wagner mercenaries going in?

Matt, fatalities within civilians is still below 1500 as per UN commissar, and for half of them Ukrainian army is responsible as per report

[cdnmatt]

Matt, fatalities within civilians is still below 1500 as per UN commissar, and for half of them Ukrainian army is responsible as per report

Put down the kool aid.