The Brink of War?

[Moses]

I don't think the U.S. General on CNN was implying that he "knew anything for sure". He was simply drawing logical assumptions based on his knowledge of warfare and the situations in Ukraine as they unfold.

It's a well-known fact that Guerrilla Warfare is a Generals worst nightmare, e.g., too many moving pieces - ambushes - sabotage - raids - hit-and-run tactics, and mobility, etc. Much of the success that Ukraine is having now against a much larger Russian military is credited to them using these flexible tactics versus conventional tactics.

Generals who are leading invasion's in these conditions have to be more flexible and mobile because there is no definitive Font-Line(s) anymore. Snipers are also much more active in Guerilla settings - and nailing a General gets them a night off, a bottle of Jack Daniels, and a feather in their cap. My assumption (right or wrong) is that we see more Russian Generals falling causality for this reason.

Guerrilla war is possible only in countries where is no quite big opposing minority. If to talk about Ukraine, then we can talk about 3 regions at north-west, i.e. Galicia - region near Polish border, there are living less than 10% of Russians. In all other regions are living about 25-40% of Russians and that means 25-40% of eyes everywhere, ears everywhere and any Russian understand Ukrainian language. In such conditions any guerrilla war will be very short, because Russians are after 8 years of pressure of Ukrainian nationalists, so they will watch closely around.

All East of Ukraine is most populated with Russians. Central Ukraine is steppes - there are nowhere to hide. And only some western regions near borders with Poland and Slovakia are somehow hills and small smooth mountains (almost without forest, because of barbarian lumber harvesting). There is no ground for long lasting resistance.

[cdnmatt]

There is no ground for long lasting resistance.

Comes from the guy who said this will be over in a few days over two weeks ago.

I think it's safe to say Russia sucks at war. You have sheer manpower and weaponary, but your utilization of it is just atrocious, at least from all reports here. With seemingingly little to no control structure, communication or logistics in general, you just surround cities than proceed to bomb and shell them back into the stone age from a distance.

show up without proper communication, then are surprised to find out the +7 Russia calling code has been blocked in Ukraine, so resort to stealing cell phones from Ukrainians so you can talk to each other. That doesn't work very well, so generals find themselves at the front lines at which point a sniper picks them off.

[Moses]

I think it's safe to say Russia sucks at war.

Yeah, you already promised default, wrong reaction of China and many other things. What can I say? Your expertise looks like sucked from the.... hm... finger.

Biden’s outreach failed to prod Xi to commit to leveraging Chinese influence to end Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or to even use the term “invasion.” The call instead provoked Xi’s implicit criticism of the alleged U.S. role in fomenting the crisis, perceived U.S. meddling in Taiwan and bitterness toward threatened U.S. sanctions against China if it aids Russia’s war effort.

Messaging from the Chinese foreign ministry just hours ahead of Xi’s call with Biden suggested that any decisions China makes about the Ukraine crisis are unlikely to meet U.S. expectations. Instead, the Chinese government appears to be doubling down on its alignment with Russia and in opposition to U.S. efforts to compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war in Ukraine.

“What the US should do is to seriously reflect on its role in the Ukraine crisis and the part it has played, effectively assume its due responsibilities, and take practical actions to ease the situation and solve the problem, instead of continuing to add fuel to the fire and shifting problems,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said. “As the culprit of the Ukraine crisis, why does the US keep smearing China instead of reflecting on the security predicament in Europe caused by the eastward expansion of US-led NATO?”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...dlock-00018622

[Moses]

Who here told about guerrilla war? It is started already. Problem is - it is started on controlling by Ukraine territory.

Source is Ukrainian https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/44...ntov-ukrayntsy (use google translate)

Translation:

The overwhelming majority of the detained saboteurs are citizens of Ukraine. This was announced by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Denis Monastyrsky.

"During the 25 days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 1,271 crimes against national security were registered. Of these, 922 were infringements on the territorial integrity and inviolability of the borders of Ukraine, 244 were for high treason, 48 were for sabotage crimes, and 57 were for others," Monastyrsky said. .

[StevieWonders]

Who here told about guerrilla war? It is started already. Problem is - it is started on controlling by Ukraine territory.:

I don’t know about you guys but I’m wetting myself with excitement

[Dodger]

Who here told about guerrilla war? It is started already......:

Some people seem to think that the Guerrilla Warfare Tactics we're seeing deployed in this war were first developed when Putin launched his attack. Wrong!

The Guerrilla tactics, along with all the other combat strategies being used by the Ukrainians first started getting developed and honed back in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.

Extensive and intensive training has been provided to Ukraine over the past 8 years with instructors ranging from CIA operatives, ex special forces assets from several different NATO countries and their allies, and skilled military instructors from various sections of the NATO structure, e.g., Chiefs of Defense of NATO member countries, International Military Staff, military Command Structure which is comprised of Allied Command Operations and Allied Command Transformation, headed respectively by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and the Supreme Allied Commander, Transformation (SACT), as well as assets from NATO's four multinational battalion-size battlegroups stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland Whew...that's a mouthful!

For anyone to think that Ukraine could hold the Russian military at bay this long. let alone terminate as many Russian troops and destroy as much military hardware as the Ukrainians have to date without this type of support are extremely naïve.

Russian people living in Ukraine pose no threat to Ukrainian military objectives whatsoever. NATO (and others) understood this well before this war started. To assume they would support the Russian military in any way, at the same time as their homes are being destroyed and family members killed would be one hell of a stretch.

The bad part of this is that the war can last forever. Putin would need to put a million troops in Ukraine just to maintain control of scattered sections of the country...which would almost assuredly be dynamic in nature...where control would change hands with the wind. The northern and western regions especially due to the mountainous landscape. Guerrillas love the mountains!

[cdnmatt]

Now Biden is warning about a cyber attack from Russia to US shortly.

[Surfcrest]

Nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers killed in the “military operation” so far and over 16,000 injured. That’s news that’s going to be difficult to suppress once those family’s boys don’t come home…or without all their pieces.

Surfcrest

https://www.9news.com.au/world/russi...7-973faec330a3

[Moses]

Nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers killed in the “military operation” so far and over 16,000 injured. That’s news that’s going to be difficult to suppress once those family’s boys don’t come home…or without all their pieces.

Surfcrest

https://www.9news.com.au/world/russi...7-973faec330a3

Why not write 100,000,000?

All soldiers serving by contracts, so families knew about risks from start of the service. Here isn't declared mobilization, and every one soldier may quit from service at any time.

Real numbers of fatalities may be found in reports of insurance companies what insure soldiers. Right now it is around 1000.

By the way: it is easy to recognize fake propaganda about fatalities - in true news ratio btw killed and injured should be 1:4 - 1:5

[StevieWonders]

Why not write 100,000,000?

That's 100 million