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Thread: The Brink of War?

  1. #1011
    Forum's veteran cdnmatt's Avatar
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    Re: The Brink of War?

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Are you sure what Trudeau is representing the whole Canadian economic?
    I'm sure Canada will be just fine.

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Meanwhile Russia doesn't make any countersanctions besides rocket engines and personal symbolic sanctions. Russia still pumps gas, oil, sends coal for to fight with European energy-crisis. Russia even pumps gas via Ukraine and pays for transit, while Zelensky cries to stop working North Stream.
    Well, yeah. Russia is in a bit of an economic pinch at the moment, and homicidal genocides are expensive, so of course they're not going to stop selling oil and gas. Don't act as if Russia is doing the West a favor by continuing to sell gas, or some shit.

  2. #1012
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    Re: The Brink of War?

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Matt, are you still waiting for default of Russia? https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency

    Attachment 12397
    Russia says it has ordered the $117 million in interest payments it owes Wednesday to be sent to investors, attempting to avoid its first international default in more than a century. But it's not out of the woods yet.
    That's because the funds the country used to make the debt payments came from Russia's frozen foreign assets, sanctioned because of its attack on Ukraine — so it remains unclear whether investors will receive their money.
    Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, told state media Russia Today that the country had made good on its obligations to creditors. But the "possibility or impossibility of fulfilling our obligations in foreign currency does not depend on us," Siluanov said, according to RT, warning that the payment might not go through if the United States disallows it.
    "We have the money, we made the payment, now the ball is in America's court," he said.

    The two coupons Russia must pay on the maturing dollar-denominated eurobonds serve as the first test of Russia's ability to pay its debts while the world heaves massive sanctions on its economy.
    If the US blocks the payment, Russia could try to pay in rubles rather than dollars. But that action could constitute a default, Fitch Ratings said Tuesday.
    It highlights the crunch Russia is in: The nation has the money to pay its debts. It just can't access about half of those funds after the West placed unprecedented sanctions on its foreign reserves, totaling about $315 billion, according to Siluanov.
    If the Russian government defaults, investors' losses could start to mount.

    Western investors are less exposed to Russia than they used to be. Sanctions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 already encouraged them to reduce their exposure. But international banks are owed about $121 billion by Russian entities, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
    JPMorgan estimates that Russia had about $40 billion of foreign currency debt at the end of last year, with about half of that held by foreign investors. So a default would be bad news for Russia, which will have to meet its obligations in its practically worthless currency, lacking access to foreign financing. But the global markets probably won't get hurt too badly.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/inves...nts/index.html

  3. #1013
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    Re: The Brink of War?

    I just hope in 20 years we don't look back on these sanctions as Treaty of Versailles 2.0.

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    Re: The Brink of War?

    Quote Originally Posted by cdnmatt View Post
    I just hope in 20 years we don't look back on these sanctions as Treaty of Versailles 2.0.
    You’re probably the youngest member here so clearly that treat most likely awaits you rather than us old codgers

  5. #1015
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    Re: The Brink of War?

    haha, fixed it before you quoted it.

  6. #1016
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    Re: The Brink of War?

    Might have to get PutinCoin or something going. Hire on some Ukrainians who speak fluent Russian as translators, flood the internet with, "support the troops, defeat the Nazis, buy PutinCoin".

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    Re: The Brink of War?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaybutton View Post
    I have been staying out of this and I intend to continue staying out of it, but I do have one question that has been bugging me. Why now? If Putin wanted to do this, why didn't he do it during Trump's presidency. I think we all know Trump liked and admired Putin. It would not have surprised me if Trump supported Putin in this. If not, if there were sanctions at all they probably would have been insignificant - more like a gentle slap on the wrist.

    The way I see it, if Putin wanted to do this, he had every reason to do it while Trump was president. Why did he wait for now?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxgBuhMBXSA
    YouTube: Why Putin Didn’t Invade Ukraine During Trump’s Presidency

  8. #1018
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    Re: The Brink of War?

    Quote Originally Posted by cdnmatt View Post

    Good for Russia! They managed to stay solvent, you must be proud.
    Not so fast. Not even the most experienced investors know if Russia will default or not just yet.

    Regardless if they default or not, the fact that the Russian economy has been destroyed in just a few short weeks is evidence that "Sanctions" if properly applied can have devastating results.

    The reason I'm particularly keen on this is because I much prefer "Economic Warfare" to a "Military Warfare". Military wars are totally outdated and result in mostly young gullible soldiers and innocent working-class civilians getting killed - where Economic Wars effect the wealthy power-seekers who sit in high places with the Gods - who make these types of idiotic and self-serving decisions in the first place. Seems a lot more fitting to me.

    A Russian government debt default was unthinkable until Putin started playing Genghis Khan and slaughtering his neighbors. They had nearly $650 billion of currency reserves, coveted investment-grade credit ratings with S&P Global, Moody's and Fitch, and were raking in hundreds of millions of dollars a day selling oil and gas at soaring prices. Putin thought he had enough money in reserves to offset the inevitable sanctions that would be imposed the minute he launched his attack (oh, sorry I meant "operation"), but the unprecedented level of sanctions knocked him off his horse and ended up freezing two-thirds of Russia's reserves that were being held overseas. Opps!

    Now he wants to talk. Now he's ready to revise his list of demands on the neighbor he's attacking to provide himself with a much-needed off ramp. We'll just have to see how this pans out. Part of me wants to see an agreement, regardless of its content, just for the benefit of the thousands of innocent people who are suffering in Ukraine, but the other part of me would like to see Zelenski tell Genghis to stick his revised "list of demands" straight up his ass.

  9. 2 Users gave Like to post:

    Dax (March 17th, 2022), Ruthrieston (March 18th, 2022)

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    Re: The Brink of War?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/25d8c539...h-russian.html


    Ukraine says fourth Russian general has been killed in combat

    Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev died Tuesday during the storming of Mariupol, said Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko, who published a photo on Telegram of what he said was the dead officer.

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    Re: The Brink of War?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dodger View Post
    Not so fast. Not even the most experienced investors know if Russia will default or not just yet.
    It's a guarantee they're going to default. Maybe not on this payment, might take another two or three months, but they'll eventually have to default. They've already said, "we can make this payment with sanctioned funds or rubles, but that's all we have", so they're going to default at some point, as these sanctions aren't going away anytime soon.

    Good, if this pans out, we're looking at Western dominance for another few decades. Russia will be in the economic shit house for the next 20 - 30 years hence no help to China aside from natural resources, and the Western world is heavily bolstering it's defense spending now. Xi Je Ping must be livid with Putin because his plans have most likely just went to shit, or have been stalled indefinitely at least.

  12. 3 Users gave Like to post:

    Dax (March 17th, 2022), Dodger (March 17th, 2022), Ruthrieston (March 18th, 2022)

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