The Brink of War?

[Dragonman]

After enforced few waves of mobilization, Ukraine found new way how o instill patriotism to own soldiers.

Vostok battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky (DNR) in his Telegram channel (Rus) https://t.me/s/aleksandr_skif

"The situation near Kherson is not easy, communication across the Dnieper is extremely difficult, it is likely that the enemy will again try to push us across the river, for which he is ready to take unprecedented measures. The other day, ours saw an enemy tank and were about to destroy it, but his atypical behavior suspended the decision : the tank lifted the barrel up and began to rotate the turret, as if signaling surrender. Our guys got close to the car and saw that the hatches on the tank were welded - the crew was simply walled up, like in a tin can, and sent to die...."

who is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Khodakovsky

When did he return from Russia? In May 2018, Khodakovsky relocated to Russia and, in September 2018, he claimed that Russian border guards did not let him return to Donetsk. What led to a change of mind by the border guards?

Given that Khodakovsky is a Ukrainian defector who reportedly - according to the Wikipedia link you posted - changes the stories he tells the press, why should he be believed now? Just over a week ago, he told Newsweek: " that his unit sometimes has difficulty locating Ukrainian troops in combat, and that his unit does not have sufficient equipment. "I have fewer people than I would like—but the main difficulty I have is not in this, but in the fact that sometimes I cannot find the enemy's positions from which they are hitting us," he added. "If suddenly I can, then I don't have enough range to fire at them, or I don't have enough ammo."

And, given the reports of the uncivilized behavior of Russian troops towards defenseless men, women and children, as shown by the mass graves being exhumed and the targeting of hospitals and schools, I suppose the conclusion to Khodakovsky's story is that he obliged Ukraine by shelling the tank? Or did he just withdraw from Kherson, like other Russian troops?

[Moses]

===== In May 2018, Khodakovsky relocated to Russia and, in September 2018, he claimed that Russian border guards did not let him return to Donetsk. What led to a change of mind by the border guards? ====

in a few months after... that were power games within DNR - who will control region...

[Dragonman]

===== In May 2018, Khodakovsky relocated to Russia and, in September 2018, he claimed that Russian border guards did not let him return to Donetsk. What led to a change of mind by the border guards? ====

in a few months after... that were power games within DNR - who will control region...

Power games indeed. I wonder what game he is now playing, as I see that Khodakovsky is now saying "Russia Can't Even Think of Advancing in Ukraine Anymore, Commander Says that the Ukrainians' successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv last week has left Russia's troops unable to advance, September 19, https://www.newsweek.com/russia-adva...mander-1744156.

The article reads in full: "Alexander Khodakovsky, a Kremlin-backed commander and former political leader in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) in eastern Ukraine, suggested Monday that the Ukrainians' successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv last week has left Russia's troops unable to advance.
In a post on his Telegram channel, Khodakovsky, a commander for the pro-Russian Vostok Battalion, said Ukraine continues transferring its soldiers and equipment in preparation for additional offensives in such a way that prevents Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 's troops from even considering advancing themselves.
"The past week passed without significant changes on the front line, but the relative stability should not mislead anyone," Khodakovsky wrote. "The enemy is preparing, transferring forces and equipment, and accumulating resources."
In the city of Kurakhove in the eastern Donetsk region, Ukraine is regularly unloading trains with equipment and personnel, he said, adding that the Pokrovsk area "is almost not far behind in this regard."
"An interesting technique: they achieved success in one direction, brought us to a state where we do not think about any offensive in this direction, only about stabilizing the front line, and offensive surpluses are transferred to another sector," the commander said.
The successful Kharkiv counteroffensive launched by Ukraine in early September saw it recapture swathes of its territory in days.
"A developed transport infrastructure allows them to maneuver with limited forces, creating accumulations in places where it is necessary according to the plan, and the presence of a plan and success in its implementation is the possession of a strategic initiative," Khodakovsky added.
Khodakovsky said during Ukraine's counteroffensive efforts that he was "depressed by the results of this stage of the war" and that Russia's war efforts have been "sloppy."
The commander said that a lack of manpower is a more minor issue for Russia, and that his unit sometimes has difficulty locating Ukrainian troops in combat and does not have sufficient equipment.
"I have fewer people than I would like—but the main difficulty I have is not in this, but in the fact that sometimes I cannot find the enemy's positions from which they are hitting us," Khodakovsky said. "If suddenly I can, then I don't have enough range to fire at them, or I don't have enough ammo."

Nothing about Ukrainian tanks with welded-shut doors, though. The last sent of his speech suggest why he couldn't blow up such tanks, though - no armament left.

But his interpretation of the situation compares the Russian side as ineffectual compared with the Ukrainian side.

[Dodger]

Opps...here we go.

Putin orders partial mobilization as a result of his self-acknowledgement of the defeat that surrounds him.

3,000 Russian reservists are now forced (under punishment of imprisonment) to leave their peaceful lives behind and plunge blindly into the jaws of death, all at the whim of one insane Dictator that they allow to control their lives. Their family members must be ecstatic!

More nuclear saber rattling (fully expected) resulting in the loudest "International Yawn" ever recorded. Fake annexations (fully expected) don't seem to be causing anyone to blink an eye either. The UN, NATO and all allies of the Free World are standing even firmer than before.

There's a lot of people in the World that believe it's time to end Putin's reign of terror (including a sizable percentage of Russians). Where's SEAL Team 6 when you need them?

[Dragonman]

Opps...here we go.

Putin orders partial mobilization as a result of his self-acknowledgement of the defeat that surrounds him.

3,000 Russian reservists are now forced (under punishment of imprisonment) to leave their peaceful lives behind and plunge blindly into the jaws of death, all at the whim of one insane Dictator that they allow to control their lives. Their family members must be ecstatic!

More nuclear saber rattling (fully expected) resulting in the loudest "International Yawn" ever recorded. Fake annexations (fully expected) don't seem to be causing anyone to blink an eye either. The UN, NATO and all allies of the Free World are standing even firmer than before.

There's a lot of people in the World that believe it's time to end Putin's reign of terror (including a sizable percentage of Russians). Where's SEAL Team 6 when you need them?

"Partial mobilization" is a euphemism like "special military operation," used to misinform the Russian people about the state of affairs on the Ukrainian border.

Russian President's Action:
Putin announces the activation of 300, 000 reservists, because events are so obviously going in Russia's favor.

Russian People's Reactions so far:
1. Hundreds of protesters take to the streets and more than 1,000 are arrested, e.g., "Russian police are reported to have arrested hundreds of protesters rallying against the Kremlin's decision to call up thousands of extra troops to fight in Ukraine," and "Dozens were held in Irkutsk and other Siberian cities, and Yekaterinburg" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62981293). Some were "... directly conscripted into the military, according to a monitoring group" (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/e...hnk/index.html).

2. All one-way flights out of Russia to countries which do not have entry visa requirements for Russians sell out within hours of the announcement, e.g., "Large numbers of Russians rushed to book one-way tickets out of the country while they still could on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of military reservists for the war in Ukraine," and "The price for flights from Moscow to Istanbul or Dubai increased within minutes before jumping again, reaching as high as €9200 ($13,600) for a one-way economy class fare" (https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...22-p5bk16.html). Moreover, "Flights leaving Russia sell out after Putin announces mobilization," and "Direct flights from Moscow to countries that don’t require visas to enter — including Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia — have sold out until at least Friday, according to Russian outlet RBC" (https://www.politico.eu/article/flig...-mobilization/),

It is obvious to everyone that the Russian people are still solidly supporting this "special military operation" - isn't it?

[cdnmatt]

I think Putin may have sealed his fate with this decision. There's a chance the Russian populous won't put up with this, and Putin won't be President in the near future.

[Moses]

Protests:
(participants)/(arrested)
Novosibirsk 70-100/1
Irkutsk 60-70/20
Voronezh 50-70/22
Ufa 80-100/30
Ekaterinburg 100-120/40
Sankt-Petersburg 2000-2500/490
Moscow 2500-3000/ below 600 (update: 468)
There were also more minor meetings below 50 participants in some cities (update: total number of cities including these above: 38). Medias publishing reports about such events without censorship. Example: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5571951 (Russian language)

In total arrested about 1300 (update: 1312). They got official warnings in police and were released within 3 hours.

Russia has 25 mln reservists. Govt call 300K of them: who served in army no more than 3 years ago, age below 35 yo. Payment starts from $3500 monthly and depends on military rang, state medical insurance, death insurance $60K.

[cdnmatt]

Moses, I'm blown away as to how you're still in support of this war after everything that has happened. When is enough enough?

Hell, Russia even just released a bunch of soldiers from the Azov battalion in a prisoner swap, so this bullshit about trying to de-nazify Ukraine is obviously a lie.

[Moses]

Just one: vice-head of "Azov" battalion has been exchanged on one of relatives of Putin (Medvedchuk).

The most amazing thing: Putin's relative is citizen of Ukraine as well - Medvedchuk was head or president office of the second Ukrainian president Kuchma, leader of forbidden now opposition party "Opposition for life" and before arrest was 57-th richest Ukrainian. So Ukraine changed one own citizen to another own citizen. Most corrupted state in world trades own citizens. It is huge humiliations of Ukraine.

Rest exchange is just random: Russians to Ukrainians.

[Dragonman]

Protests:
(participants)/(arrested)
Novosibirsk 70-100/1
Irkutsk 60-70/20
Voronezh 50-70/22
Ufa 80-100/30
Ekaterinburg 100-120/40
Sankt-Petersburg 2000-2500/490
Moscow 2500-3000/ below 600 (update: 468)
There were also more minor meetings below 50 participants in some cities (update: total number of cities including these above: 38). Medias publishing reports about such events without censorship. Example: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5571951 (Russian language)

In total arrested about 1300 (update: 1312). They got official warnings in police and were released within 3 hours.

Russia has 25 mln reservists. Govt call 300K of them: who served in army no more than 3 years ago, age below 35 yo. Payment starts from $3500 monthly and depends on military rang, state medical insurance, death insurance $60K.

Did you mistype the number of reservists as 25 million? Published sources put the figure at only 2.5 million (International Institute for Strategic Studies (25 February 2021). "The Military Balance 2021." London: Routledge. p. 191. ISBN 9781032012278). The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank that closely tracks the war in Ukraine, previously said Russia has more than 2 million reservists, including former conscripts and contract soldiers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...n-war-ukraine/). A reservist force of 25 million would be somewhere around 17% of the current Russian population, not counting those killed in the special military operation, those who fled Russia at the beginning of the special military operation, and those who have fled since the announcement of the call-up of the reservists.

"Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday following Putin’s address that Russia would call as many as 300,000 reservists to military service" (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...n-war-ukraine/). The wording (at least in translations) is interesting because it is not precise, i.e., the inclusion of "as many as" suggests the number could be smaller.

What dent in all the extra revenue from oil exports to China and India will the monthly payments, state medical and death insurance put? Assuming the revenue is still available, of course.

However, the number of reservists "called up" is irrelevant. What is relevant is how may actually report for duty, how many are fit for duty, how many can be transported to the front lines, and whether or not the Russian military has the resources to arm and clothe, etc., them properly, given how "crowd-funding" had to be used earlier as so many personnel sent to the front had nothing.