The Brink of War?

[cdnmatt]

You're dreaming Moses. You may want to revisit reality. It's pretty cool down here.

[Dragonman]

Quote from Moses: Guys, all you have to know:
- population of Russia is 145 mln,
- population of Ukraine is 42 mln minus 2.5 mln in Crimea, minus 3 mln in DNR and LNR, minus 8 mln of workers and refugees in EU, minus 3 mln of refugees in Russia. Total = 25.5 mln. End Quote from Moses

Looked at that another way:
The population density in Ukraine is 75 per Km2
The population density in Russia is 9 per Km2. Transporting people to the frontline will be time consuming and expensive.

Quote from Moses: minus 8 mln of workers and refugees in EU. End Quote from Moses

Currently, September 2022, there are “more than 7.4 million refugees from Ukraine across Europe.” (https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine...september-2022). Proportion of those that are women and children, according to UNHCR reports, is 90%.

Quote from Moses: Also they started to mobilize woman (medics, biologists, chemists, journalists). Population is almost drained. End Quote from Moses

MOSCOW, September 22. /TASS/. Women who have certain military specialties may take up some positions during Russia’s partial mobilization campaign but the need for such specialists is minimal, Spokesman for the Main Organizational and Mobilization Department of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff Rear-Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky said on Thursday. “Women may take up certain positions during mobilization — Russian Defense Ministry. Tsimlyansky also specified that privates and sergeants under 35 years, junior officers under 50 and senior officers under 55 were subject to mobilization (Tass: 23 Sep, 02:59, https://tass.com/society/1511943)(

Quote from Moses: Winter is coming. Green forests what are shelters for Ukrainian army will be transparent soon. Drones will wait for them. End Quote from Moses

Forests that sheltered Russian troops will be transparent soon - we have all seen the videos. On 22 September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed seven UAVs that belonged to Russian invaders; four of them were the Iran-made Shahed kamikaze drones ("Armed Forces of Ukraine destroy seven Russian UAVs, including an Iran-made Shahed in one day, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/23/7368736/ ).

Meanwhile, “Russia has taken out more of its Soviet-era tanks from storage to be deployed in the Ukraine war as the conflict reaches its seventh month, a video circulating on social media appears to show. Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, shared a clip on his Twitter page that appears to show multiple 50-year-old T-62 tanks lined up on railway tracks in Russia. "And new Russian conscripts (also with no protection against modern weapons and a modern army - we've seen what they fight in). Perfect combination, doomed for success, I would say," he added” (https://www.newsweek.com/video-russi...ne-war-1745776). The Twitter posting is at https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...39697144520713.

Quote from Moses: Time is working in favor of Russia anyway. But than longer Ukraine will have support from West, then more people will die, but result of conflict will be the same. It is unavoidable: 145 : 25. End Quote from Moses.

Smaller countries that have beaten larger ones: North Vietnam against the United States, 1961–1975. The United States against Britain in 1775– 1783. Israel against the larger Arab countries in 1948–1949, 1956, 1967, 1973. Poland against Russia in 1920. Not counting the more recent fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Or, of course, Afghanistan against the Soviet Union in 1979 - 1989, when Soviet losses included over 15,000 Soviet troops killed in Afghanistan and the loss of hundreds of aircraft, and billions of dollars’ worth of other military machines. Various sources already put Russian and allied forces deaths at 15,000, with deaths in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk around 3,600. The Afghan forces did not have western support or equipment, if I remember correctly, though I believe that the Soviets then, too, thought that time and winter were on their side.

[Moses]

===Looked at that another way:
The population density in Ukraine is 75 per Km2
The population density in Russia is 9 per Km2. Transporting people to the frontline will be time consuming and expensive.
====

Time is working on Russia. Money? Russia got additional $100 bln of profit from gas and oil at first 6 months of 2022.

And just had unseal reserves of 10,000 tanks, just part of which is T-62, T-64 and mostly they are t-72 and T-80

By the way: "50-old" T-62 is widely in use tank in Ukrainian forces. Ukraine still manufactures them and even trying to sell abroad https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Т-62-5ТДФ (use Google translator)

[Dragonman]

===Looked at that another way:
The population density in Ukraine is 75 per Km2
The population density in Russia is 9 per Km2. Transporting people to the frontline will be time consuming and expensive.
====

Time is working on Russia. Money? Russia got additional $100 bln of profit from gas and oil at first 6 months of 2022.

And just had unseal reserves of 10,000 tanks, just part of which is T-62, T-64 and mostly they are t-72 and T-80

By the way: "50-old" T-62 is widely in use tank in Ukrainian forces. Ukraine still manufactures them and even trying to sell abroad https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Т-62-5ТДФ (use Google translator)

Cherry-picked answers.

If Russia has so many modern tanks, why do the international headlines refer to the tanks being used in Ukraine as "Russia’s Ancient T-62 Tanks Are On The Move In Ukraine" (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=21138f2a12be), and to tanks such as T-72 in terms such as "Russia’s tanks in Ukraine are old, obsolete and failing (https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/russia...and-failing/)?

I understand that Ukraine's main battle tank is the T-84, based on the Soviet T-80 MBT, and specifically the Diesel engine version: T-80UD, and which entered service in the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 1999. Many of the other tanks the Ukrainians are using as described as being supplied by Russia, e.g., "Russia Is Supplying Ukraine With Lightly Used Tanks. Ukraine plans to use Russia’s own armor against it" (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/13...tanks-kharkiv/, September 13).

Time, money and population are working for Russia? Just as they worked in 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan?

The Afghan population in 1979 was under 14 million people; the Soviet Union population, according to the January 1979 population was 262,084,654 people. Population numbers clearly on the side of the Soviet Union.

The Soviet Union economy in terms of GDP was around a nominal $US1.21 trillion, while the Afghan economy was around $US3.698 billion (1979). Funding clearly on the side of the Soviet Union.

Despite the population and money imbalances, the Soviet Union withdrew its military forces without achieving the demilitarization that had been one of its aims - denazification was not an excuse that time for its invasion.

Time was clearly on the Afghan side as the outcome of the invasion was the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union.

The Russian Federation military forces and politicians seem to have learned nothing from history.

[Moses]

Whatever

145:25. End is unavoidable.

[Dragonman]

Whatever

145:25. End is unavoidable.

But surely, Moses, you know that size isn't everything!

[cdnmatt]

Right, the end is unavoidable. Russia's end is near.

Aren't you the guy that quite a few months ago were saying that the war will be over in a few weeks, and Russia will prevail?

And if you think number of soldiers matters that much, you may want to research Sparta a little bit, for one of many examples.

[Moses]

Slovenia just "gift" to Ukraine 28 tanks M-55 (T-55). Nice gift for museums - 70 year old tanks. Pity: Ukraine has no shells for them.

[cdnmatt]

Slovenia just "gift" to Ukraine 28 tanks M-55 (T-55). Nice gift for museums - 70 year old tanks. Pity: Ukraine has no shells for them.

Recent Ukraine victories resulted in the largest arms transfer since WWII due to how much Russian military equipment and ammunication they were able to seize, so not sure what you're talking about.

[Dragonman]

Slovenia just "gift" to Ukraine 28 tanks M-55 (T-55). Nice gift for museums - 70 year old tanks. Pity: Ukraine has no shells for them.

Your information is incorrect, and the tanks are not museum pieces.

What Slovenia is donating to Ukraine are M-55S tanks, a modernized version of the Soviet T-55. The tanks have new guns - 105 mm Royal Ordnance L7 with a thermal insulation jacket, one of the most successful tank guns of all time. The tower and hull have been covered with additional reactive armor, which has changed the silhouette of the tanks to bringing it closer to modern ones. The M-55S have received a digital ballistic computer and gun stabilization, a Fotona SGS-55 sight with a laser rangefinder, as well as a LIRD-1A laser radiation detector linked to the smoke grenade launcher IS-6.

In terms of mobility, the M-55S has been motorized with a new 600 hp Diesel engine, which replaces the V-12 water-cooled diesel developing 580 hp of the original T-55. To improve the cross-country mobility of the tank, the suspension has been replaced and now each side consists of five rubber-tired road wheels, with a drive sprocket at the rear, an idler at the front, and four return rollers. The new 580 mm wide track has been fitted with replaceable rubber pads and to reduce driver fatigue a hydraulic steering system has been installed.

The armament is an 105 mm L7 gun (36 rounds), a 7.62 mm machine gun (2800 rounds), and 12 mm machine gun (250 rounds). The L7 tank gun is compatible with a wide array of ammunition types, including High Explosive Anti-Tank-Tracer and High Explosive Squash Head-Tracer rounds.

This is part of the so-called chain swap, which Germany uses to supply arms to Ukraine. Slovenia will send 28 M55s tanks to Ukraine and receive 40 German military trucks.