The Brink of War?

[Dax]

Dragonman, nice to know that you and Dodger are still with the living. Take care, BE safe!

[Moses]

I didn't die but there has been nothing recently on which I could comment

You could comment this:

photo_2022-06-24_21-54-35.jpg

[Dragonman]

You could comment this:

photo_2022-06-24_21-54-35.jpg

As usual, you give no link to the item you posted, so it is difficult to respond to something that is presented without context – something on which I have commented previously. Posting "photo_2022-06-24_21-54-35.jpg" on Google produces no results.

I have identified however the articles listed in the left-hand column and will comment on those.

The Guardian headline is from an article by Oliver Bullough, published on Friday February 6, 2015, when Petro Poroshenko was Ukrainian president. It is as relevant to the present situation as the report from TPI that Russia is Europe's most corrupt country, at https://www.eu-ocs.com/russia-remain...-international of January 29, 2020. Russia retained that position in 2021, but slipped 29 places in the global rankings (https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021).

The report from Reuters is by Josh Cohen on March 20, 2018, and is marked as “Updated 4 years ago" (sic) (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1GV2TY). The updating comment speaks for itself in showing its relevance to the current situation. More relevant is the report “Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis”, published online on March 21, 2022 7.05pm GMT at https://theconversation.com/putins-f...o-nazis-178535.

You obviously haven’t read the Vox report (by Alex Ward on Sep 24, 2019,published online at https://www.vox.com/world/2019/9/24/...ident-zelensky) as the opening paragraphs state in full “At the center of the latest scandal threatening to take down President Donald Trump is a comedian who just became president of his country four months ago. The current crisis has to do with whether Trump improperly used his position to try to coerce Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into investigating Trump’s 2020 political opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden — perhaps by withholding military aid to the Eastern European country until it agreed.” Again, irrelevant to the present situation as Zelensky had been president for only four months at the time the article was written, and the article is mainly about Trump, not Zelensky.

Perhaps you should read “Trump’s Mysterious Relationship With Putin,” September 14, 2020, by Stephen Schlesinger (https://www.passblue.com/2020/09/14/...ip-with-putin/), which begins, “After President Trump’s nearly four years in office, we still do not have a good answer as to why the president has repeatedly deferred to Vladimir Putin on major issues. This is a central question that we face as a country, especially its consequences for American policies on Ukrainian sanctions, on the issue of Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, on the trustworthiness of our United States intelligence agencies, recently also on the contretemps over possible Russian bounties for the killing of American soldiers in Afghanistan and finally on the US presidential election.”

The NewEurope report is by Oleg Sukhov, “A Kyiv-based reporter who moved to Ukraine from his native Russia in 2014. He previously worked as an independent opposition journalist for various publications in Russia and covers topics that include corruption, reforms, and politics in the former Soviet Union” (https://www.neweurope.eu/author/oleg-sukhov/). It was published on April 15, 2021, and updated on April 16, 2021. NewEurope proclaims itself to be “the only independent newspaper, published weekly, with no political affiliation and seeks to present factually-correct information in an accessible format.” As I don’t have a subscription to this publication, I cannot read Sukhov’s article in full. I can note, however, that NewEurope has also published such articles as “Why Russia needs to be isolated” (by Yuri Polakiwsky, June 23, 2022, update June 24, at https://www.neweurope.eu/article/why...o-be-isolated/), and “Europe’s “turning point” finally arrives after Russia’s sadistic invasion of Ukraine” (by US Congressman French Hill, published and updated June 23, 2022 at https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eur...on-of-ukraine/).

Oleg Sukhov’s entry on the website of The Kyiv Independent states, “Oleg Sukhov is a political reporter at the Kyiv Independent. He is a former editor and reporter at the Moscow Times. He has a master's degree in history from the Moscow State University. He moved to Ukraine in 2014 due to the crackdown on independent media in Russia and covered war, corruption, reforms and law enforcement for the Kyiv Post" (https://kyivindependent.com/author/oleg-sukhov). The fact that he can live and write such articles in Ukraine – but not in Russia – speaks volumes for the political differences between the two countries.

There is an English-language saying that "people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones," meaning that people who have faults should not criticize other people for having the same faults.

[Dax]

I've been missing this, Dragonman, thank you.......or, maybe I should I be thanking Moses?

[Dragonman]

I've been missing this, Dragonman, thank you.......or, maybe I should I be thanking Moses?

A rhetorical question?

[Dax]

Of course!

[Moses]

There is an English-language saying that "people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones," meaning that people who have faults should not criticize other people for having the same faults.

Again a lot of lines... But most funny fact is: you are quoting as a proof the same medias, that as we see, have changed their points of view 180 degree. They are like a weather vane - changing points of view with wills of owners. Today "nazi", tomorrow "hero". Just propaganda.

Meanwhile ruble is around 51 per USD, it becomes stronger and stronger, while officials from EU cries "we will not pay in rubles!", "sanctions!".

Does Western press is proud how strong USD is? (It is rhetorical question). Within past year ruble became 30% stronger against USD, 50% stronger against Japanese yen, 40% stronger against euro and pound.

Here is fifth week of deflation (it is bad for govt, but is very pleasant for people), forecast for yearly inflation is going lower and lower, while forecasts for inflation in US and European countries are going up and up.

In June Russia become oil supplier #1 for India and China, extra oil+gas income in Russian budget is now above $270 bln already, while EU and US cancel fuel taxes for to fight with historical high fuel prices and make preparations for gas rationing during incoming winter.

And everything what I described above is going with accompaniment of headlines in Western medias how "deep in shit Russia is from sanctions".

Western governments explains to own people what their situation with 9-20% inflation is "because of Putin". How else they will explain their fuckups? They can't say "We make you all victims of our miscalculations how sanctions will work", "you all will pay for our baseless political ambitions and blind proudness".

And one more funny fact is: everything what's going on, is going under control of American gerontocracy leading by mentally disabled president, who needs instructions to enter, sit, greet and talk "2 minutes", and even has no brains to keep his notes private:

biden-instructions-021.jpg

[Dragonman]

Again a lot of lines... But most funny fact is: you are quoting as a proof the same medias, that as we see, have changed their points of view 180 degree. They are like a weather vane - changing points of view with wills of owners. Today "nazi", tomorrow "hero". Just propaganda.

Meanwhile ruble is around 51 per USD, it becomes stronger and stronger, while officials from EU cries "we will not pay in rubles!", "sanctions!".

Does Western press is proud how strong USD is? (It is rhetorical question). Within past year ruble became 30% stronger against USD, 50% stronger against Japanese yen, 40% stronger against euro and pound.

Here is fifth week of deflation (it is bad for govt, but is very pleasant for people), forecast for yearly inflation is going lower and lower, while forecasts for inflation in US and European countries are going up and up.

In June Russia become oil supplier #1 for India and China, extra oil+gas income in Russian budget is now above $270 bln already, while EU and US cancel fuel taxes for to fight with historical high fuel prices and make preparations for gas rationing during incoming winter.

And everything what I described above is going with accompaniment of headlines in Western medias how "deep in shit Russia is from sanctions".

Western governments explains to own people what their situation with 9-20% inflation is "because of Putin". How else they will explain their fuckups? They can't say "We make you all victims of our miscalculations how sanctions will work", "you all will pay for our baseless political ambitions and blind proudness".

And one more funny fact is: everything what's going on, is going under control of American gerontocracy leading by mentally disabled president, who needs instructions to enter, sit, greet and talk "2 minutes", and even has no brains to keep his notes private:

biden-instructions-021.jpg

"Within past year ruble became 30% stronger against USD, 50% stronger against Japanese yen, 40% stronger against euro and pound."

To put this in some perspective, consider the figures in reverse. The following is from https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/RUB...tory-2022.html, and details, and deals with the Russian Ruble to US Dollar Spot Exchange Rates for 2022, and gives the exchange rate history data page for the year of 2022, covering 175 days of RUB USD historical data for the first part of 2022:
Best exchange rate: 0.0186 USD on 21 Jun 2022.
Average exchange rate in 2022: 0.0132 USD.
Worst exchange rate: 0.007 USD on 07 Mar 2022.

On Saturday 1 January 2022, the ruble was worth $0.0134. On Friday June 24, 2022, the ruble was worth = $0.0185. A 30% increase in value against the US dollar is an infinitesimal amount (https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/RUB...tory-2022.html).

The increase in the value of the ruble versus the Japanese yen can be attributed to the policy of the Japanese government and is related more to the structural problems of Japan’s economy than anything else (see "A Weakening Yen Puts Japan to the Test" at https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-topics/g02125/). Other reasons for the changing value of the ruble versus other currencies are explained by the article "Russia’s Economy Is Tanking but the Ruble Soared. Here’s Why" at https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ng-11653559916), the explanation being "Russia’s central bank lowers interest rates, making holding rubles less attractive."

With regard to Russian deflation, did you read the following in The Moscow Times? "Economists agree that, if deflation continues, it should be seen as a sign of worse times to come. Traditionally, deflation is a sign of reduced demand in the economy - which means that a prolonged recession is likely looming. “What Putin’s remarks actually mean is that the economy is getting worse,” analyst Nick Trickett told The Moscow Times. “He is just trying to sell the public the idea that economic technocrats are going to do things that prevent prices of basic items like food from increasing.” (Explainer: What Does Russia’s ‘Zero-Inflation’ Mean? By Leyla Latypova, Updated: June 11, 2022, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...on-mean-a77952). Enjoy the Russian deflation while it lasts.

Western inflation, on the other hand, is exacerbated the the effects of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine, but is mainly driven (according to economists at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2022) by rising food and energy costs in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic ("Why is inflation so high and will it stay that way? An economist explains," https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/...mist-explains/).

The so-called "Putin price hike" is a term used in the USA, and not more generally in western democracies. Last year, inflation there was blamed on General Secretary Xi JinPing. Don't assume all democratic governments use the same excuse.

Regarding President Biden's accidental exposure of his cue card, it is not uncommon for US and other politicians to have cue cards for speeches and meetings. The US far-right wing commentators have forgotten that Republic President Ronald Reagan also used them (and got more than merely cues (https://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/26/u...ipts-show.html), as did Republican President Donald Trump (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ting-survivors) which were also revealed. Synonyms for cue cards include idiot sheets and teleprompters - which newsroom readers use.

If I were a resident of Mainland China or India, I would probably also be rejoicing that Russia is now the country's biggest oil supplier - considering the 30% discount price that the country is paying for Russian oil (see, e.g., https://energy.economictimes.indiati...china/92338251 and https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/rus...pplier/2613345).

With regard to the health of a country's president, would you like to explain why "Vladimir Putin mysteriously postpones marathon TV phone-in for first time in 18 years" (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-myst...st-time-russia, 9 June 2022)? Is it, as the article suggests, because he has cancer, or is suffering from Parkinson's disease, or because Putin might be trying to dodge scrutiny about the faltering — and costly — invasion of Ukraine (you know, the one where generals where ordered to take Kyiv within a couple of days)? Is it because of the questions of his health?

Will some of the extra "oil+gas income in Russian budget is now above $270 bln already" be spent on outfitting Russian troops properly so that soldiers don't have to crowd-fund their own food, weapons, etc. (e.g., "Russians turn to crowdfunding for ill-equipped soldiers in Ukraine. Everything from rifle scopes to boots have been sent to troops, paid for by ‘patriots’ through fundraising initiatives, 5 June 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ers-ukraine/)?

Or will it be siphoned off to buy more expensive watches ( Vladimir Putin’s $1 million luxury watch collection revealed. The Russian president boasts one of the most impressive collections of watches in politics. Here we list some of his most iconic pieces that he has amassed in his time in office including heavyweight names such as Patek Philippe, IWC and A. Lange & Söhne, 15/10/2021, https://somethingaboutrocks.com/arti...tion-revealed/), and expensive jackets such as that he wore when addressing a pro-special military operation rally in March 2022 (Putin’s expensive fashion - £10,000 coat, baffling workout gear and luxury watch collection. Vladimir Putin, recently 69, donned a Loro Piana jacket worth nearly 1.5million Russian roubles, equivalent to around £10,000, and he often favors designer outfits, https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...-coat-26517337), all of which he apparently pays for out of his Presidential salary of $US123,000 as he reports he has not other source of income or wealth (e.g., Panama Papers: Putin rejects corruption allegations, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35989560)?

With regard to your comment that "And everything what I described above is going with accompaniment of headlines in Western medias how "deep in shit Russia is from sanctions," would you like to comment also on the following - which is from a Russian banker? The headline is "Russian economy may need a decade to return to pre-sanctions levels, Sberbank says" (https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ys-2022-06-17/). The report cites German Gref, Sberbank CEO and a former economy minister, as noting that "countries that hit Russia with sanctions accounted for 56% of its exports and 51% of imports." "This is a threat to 15% of the country's gross domestic product, the bulk of the economy is under the fire. As a result - and if we do nothing - we may need around a decade to return economy to the 2021 levels." It seems to me to be a Russian admission that the Russian economy is indeed in глубокое дерьмо, and likely to be for some time..

Note that this is a report from June 17, 2022 of a speech made at an annual international economic forum in St Petersburg. But perhaps it wasn't reported in the Russian media?

[Moses]

If I were a resident of Mainland China or India, I would probably also be rejoicing that Russia is now the country's biggest oil supplier - considering the 30% discount price that the country is paying for Russian oil (see, e.g., https://energy.economictimes.indiati...china/92338251 and https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/rus...pplier/2613345).

Looks like your medias forgot to tell you 2 points:

1. Urals oil always has discount to Brent oil, exactly 30%
2. It is discount to stock exchange prices what are on peak already almost year and forecast is "up to $200 per barrel till the end of the year".

That why every Western media now discussing Russian fossil fuel extra profit from sanctions, $240-270 bln , huh?

And yes: here are in discussion of contracting of export in natural units, but celebrating expanding of export in moneys

[Dragonman]

Looks like your medias forgot to tell you 2 points:

1. Urals oil always has discount to Brent oil, exactly 30%
2. It is discount to stock exchange prices what are on peak already almost year and forecast is "up to $200 per barrel till the end of the year".

That why every Western media now discussing Russian fossil fuel extra profit from sanctions, $240-270 bln , huh?

And yes: here are in discussion of contracting of export in natural units, but celebrating expanding of export in moneys

Moses,

Thank you for pointing out something I had not sufficiently checked in my earlier response.

You prompted me to look further into the discount for Indian buyers of Russian oil, and this is what I found - an article entitled “European traders get more discounts on Russian oil than Indian buyers. Thanks to EU sanctions!” (https://www.timesnownews.com/busines...o-eu-sanctions, Updated Jun 8, 2022 | 03:57 PM IST. The article states, “Indian refiners are at a significant disadvantage as compared to European traders with respect to discounts on Russian oil. EU sanctions forbid European traders from selling outside Eurozone which means no non-Euro buyers and more discounts for local buyers.

It also states, “Agencies report Russian crude to be available at a discount of $35 per barrel to Brent, the global oil benchmark, but increased insurance, shipping and dealer margins in the aftermath of sanctions have effectively reduced the concession effectively to $10 for Indian buyers……This hasn’t deterred Indian buyers to shore up Russian crude supplies in the aftermath of the war. Russia’s share in India’s crude import kitty increased to 5% in April for the first time ever; up from 1% in entire 2021.”

So, 5% of a country’s oil imports is world-shattering news? India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said that "energy purchases from Russia remain miniscule in comparison to India's total consumption," and "Pulling back from Russian imports "will lead to further volatility and instability, jacking up international prices," the ministry warned" (Nikkei Weekly, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Ene...tern-sanctions).

You are incorrect in stating (a) that Ural oil has always been discounted against Brent oil, and (b) the discount is exactly 30% - according to Statistica.com’s data site entry entitled “Difference between Urals and Brent oil price from December 31, 2021 to June 23, 2022” (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ference-daily/). This shows the difference at the beginning of 2022 was less than 5%, and as much as much as 37.5% on April 18, 2022.
The 30% discount against Brent oil was reported by Bloomberg News as “Russian Oil Selling at 30% Discount to Global Benchmark, Data Show, on May 31, 2022 at 6:56 PM GMT+8 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...data#xj4y7vzkg).

The New York Times cites JP Morgan by stating “J.P. Morgan commodities experts estimate that China can buy an additional million barrels of Russian crude a day as China recovers from Covid and attempts to add to its strategic crude stockpiles on the cheap. Russian Urals crude is selling for a $30 discount to Brent” (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/w...-cutbacks.html). According to Statistica.com, the discount on July 21, 2022 was actually 34.65%.

According to the Financial Times, it is China’s independent refiners that have been discreetly buying Russian oil at steep discounts, rather than the state-owned refiners, and that this is because “Purchases come as Chinese state-owned commodity traders shy away to avoid sanctions” (China’s independent refiners start buying Russian oil at steep discounts, https://www.ft.com/content/4f277a24-...4-29d6fd448b20, May 4 2022). State-owned
I have no idea why the Western press is fixated on Russia’s extra oil income this year, but noted with interest the following comment: “June 3 (Reuters) - Russia's finance ministry on Friday said it expects to receive 393 billion roubles ($6.35 billion) in additional oil and gas revenues this month. The Russian budget is set to record total additional receipts of 656.6 billion roubles in May-June thanks to higher-than-expected oil prices, it said in a statement. Due to the temporary suspension of certain provisions of the budget rule, the ministry does not plan to conduct market forex operations this year, it said.” (https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ry-2022-06-03/). In other words, all that money, but nowhere to spend it. So much for “celebrating the expanding export in moneys.”