The Brink of War?

[Dragonman]

It is as precise, as is precise "Kurakhiv front" - try to find this in Google... may be on Mars?

Moses, really, you should not criticize other non-native speakers of English given your own mistakes that posters so far have overlooked, e.g., "razen chins" in an earlier post for "raised chins." It is a misspelling of Kharkiv - see Original source https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaf...15216837458068.

More bad news for the Russian arms industry is contained in a report from the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute found that the conflict has damaged the reputation of Russia’s defense equipment, once a source of considerable revenue for the country. The Executive Summary reads:

Russia has been the largest exporter of arms to Southeast Asia over the past two decades but since 2014 the value of its defence sales to the region has fallen sharply.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will not only make it difficult for the country’s defense industry to revive sales but will likely lead to a further decline in arms exports to Southeast Asia.
Economic sanctions imposed by the United States, European and Asian countries will make it harder for Russian defense companies to conduct financial transactions while export controls will restrict their access to high-tech components.
The Russian armed forces’ poor performance on the battlefield has caused significant reputational damage to Russian-manufactured military hardware.
If Russia becomes more dependent on China for economic and military assistance, Beijing may apply pressure on Moscow to reduce sales of offensive weaponry to Vietnam.
The problems facing Russia’s defense-industrial sector will create market opportunities in Southeast Asia for other countries, including China.

Source: ISEAS Perspective 2022/47, 5 May 2022 at https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-co...by-ian-storey/. You can download the pdf for the full report.

[Moses]

With regard to selling "Russian" wheat, I understand most of that is wheat looted from Ukraine - "Russians steal vast amounts of Ukrainian grain and equipment, threatening this year's harvest" (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/e...ntl/index.html). Dealing in stolen goods is a criminal offense in most countries, through probably not in Russia nowadays, given the reports of widespread looting by Russian troops.

Bullshit. Russia is wheat world exporter #1 for decade and is "responsible" for almost 25% of export . #2 is USA with 13% of world export. Ukraine is #5.

[Dragonman]

Bullshit. Russia is wheat world exporter #1 for decade and is "responsible" for almost 25% of export . #2 is USA with 13% of world export. Ukraine is #5.

Another factually incorrect response.

A decade is 10 years, but reports from Russian sources suggest Russia did not become the world's major wheat exporter until much more recently than a decade ago. Russia is responsible for almost 24% (or 23.92%) of world wheat exports, with Canada and the USA combined responsible for 24.66% (https://beef2live.com/story-top-20-l...world-0-206491, Rob Cook, May 12, 2022).

I suggest you read the English-language website from Russia Beyond (https://www.rbth.com/business/332948...wheat-exporter) for the report on November 3rd, 2020 by Alexei Lossan, entitled "How Russia became the world’s LEADING wheat exporter." In this report, it states: "The most important grain crop in the world is wheat and Russia is now one of the largest wheat suppliers in the world. “In terms of wheat production, last year (Comment, i.e., 2019) Russia became the third largest producer, after India and China,” says Dmitry Bedenkov, head of research at the Russ-Invest investment company. According to FAO (the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), in 2019, Russia was the world’s biggest wheat exporter, selling almost 34.5 million tons." The report also lists Russia's major wheat markets.

A non-Russian source, World Grain.com (https://www.world-grain.com/articles...wheat-exporter), in an article entitled "Russia forecast to remain top wheat exporter," on February 21, 2020, by reporter Arvin Donley states: "Russia is poised to remain No. 1 in wheat exports in 2019-20 although production and shipments are forecast to decline slightly from the previous year, according to a Feb. 20 Global Agricultural Information Network report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA is projecting a decline in Russian wheat exports year on year from 35.7 million tonnes to 33.5 million. It would be well below Russia’s 2017-18 export total of 41.4 million tonnes. “Given global market conditions and the Russian crop forecast, it is expected that the Russian Federation will remain the world’s top wheat exporter,” the USDA said. If realized, it would be Russia’s third straight year as the world’s top wheat exporter."

Whether it is 2017-2018 or 2019 that Russia became the world's largest wheat exporter is not particularly relevant, as both dates are years short of a decade.

Another way to look at rankings is to consider the value of the exports in US dollars. Russian exports of 37,267,014 metric tons in 2020 was reported in FAO Corporate Statistical Database were worth USD 7,918,294, while the USA's somewhat smaller export volume (26,131,626 metric tons) was worth USD 6,318,111, and Canada's 26,110,509 metric tons were worth USD 6,317,889. Obviously, for purchasers, quality is worth more than quantity.

[cdnmatt]

Whew, busy 24 - 48 hours in the war. Apparently, those Western weapons are making quite the impact. There's so much, not sure where to begin.

The nearly entire armored batallion that was wiped out while trying to cross a platoon bridge? The landing ship in the Black Sea now on fire and being towed away? The fact that Russians are blowing up bridgers as they retreat from Kharkiv so the Ukraineians don't come after them? The ~22,000 Russian soldiers that might get cut off from being resupplied? The helicopters on Snake Island that are now rubble?

ANd more... lots to cover.

[Dragonman]

Bullshit. Russia is wheat world exporter #1 for decade and is "responsible" for almost 25% of export . #2 is USA with 13% of world export. Ukraine is #5.

PS. An S&P report by Sampad Nandy in February 2022 said "Russia's 2021-22 wheat exports fall 21% on year, prices decline" (https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...prices-decline). It stated "Russia exported 23.6 million mt wheat between July 1 and Jan. 27 during the marketing year 2021-22 (July-June), down 21% year on year, while export prices declined $2 week on week, data from the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance showed Jan. 31." Among other data, the report stated:
1. "Russia's wheat output is expected to fall in MY 2021-22, due to adverse weather conditions, particularly dry and warm summers."
2. "Export prices of Russian wheat fell $11 over the past month, as the government's repeated interventions and escalating tension with Ukraine weighed on the prices.
3. "Russia introduced new export tax mechanisms last month, setting an export quota on wheat at 8 million mt over Feb. 15-June 30."

[Moses]

PS. An S&P report by Sampad Nandy in February 2022 said "Russia's 2021-22 wheat exports fall 21% on year, prices decline" (https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...prices-decline). It stated "Russia exported 23.6 million mt wheat between July 1 and Jan. 27 during the marketing year 2021-22 (July-June), down 21% year on year, while export prices declined $2 week on week, data from the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance showed Jan. 31." Among other data, the report stated:
1. "Russia's wheat output is expected to fall in MY 2021-22, due to adverse weather conditions, particularly dry and warm summers."
2. "Export prices of Russian wheat fell $11 over the past month, as the government's repeated interventions and escalating tension with Ukraine weighed on the prices.
3. "Russia introduced new export tax mechanisms last month, setting an export quota on wheat at 8 million mt over Feb. 15-June 30."

India just announced: wheat export closed.

Russian forecast for 2022: highest yield in history - 87 mt.

"21% down" means nothing for first place: next one exporter - US - exports twice less.

[Moses]

Whew, busy 24 - 48 hours in the war. Apparently, those Western weapons are making quite the impact. There's so much, not sure where to begin.

The nearly entire armored batallion that was wiped out while trying to cross a platoon bridge? The landing ship in the Black Sea now on fire and being towed away? The fact that Russians are blowing up bridgers as they retreat from Kharkiv so the Ukraineians don't come after them? The ~22,000 Russian soldiers that might get cut off from being resupplied? The helicopters on Snake Island that are now rubble?

ANd more... lots to cover.

Helicopters - 5pcs, 10 Bayractars, 3 small ships, up to 40 soldiers - Ukrainian losses at May 9 at Zmeiniy (Snake). Zelenskiy wanted victory for propaganda and ordered retake island. Loudest fiasco.

[cdnmatt]

Helicopters - 5pcs, 10 Bayractars, 3 small ships, up to 40 soldiers - Ukrainian losses at May 9 at Zmeiniy (Snake). Zelenskiy wanted victory for propaganda and ordered retake island. Loudest fiasco.

I don't know, for what you guys assumed was going to be a 72 hour war, Russia really seems to be getting their ass handed to them.

And to think, at the beginning of the war troops went in packed with suits for their celebration parade in Kiev that was supposed to happen in mere days.

[Dragonman]

India just announced: wheat export closed.

Russian forecast for 2022: highest yield in history - 87 mt.

"21% down" means nothing for first place: next one exporter - US - exports twice less.

India cancelled its wheat exports in order to "salvage its falling inventories." “There is a sudden spike in the global prices of wheat arising out of many factors as a result of which the food security of India, neighboring and other vulnerable countries is at risk,” an official notification banning exports said. The notification was dated May 13, 2022.
(https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1400133_1.html.)

The following report from S&P contains interesting information of how Russia arrived at its figures. Note that the the Russian figures include wheat from the Crimea and the Donbas regions, which are internationally recognized as illegally annexed Ukrainian territories. Note, too, that the expected yields are dependent on the weather.

"Improved Russian yields. The USDA is expecting Russian production at 80 million mt for MY 2022-23, up from 75.16 million mt, with a 7% improvement in yield outweighing a small decline in the planted area. It expects winter wheat to represent just under three quarters of the upcoming crop. The winter crop for MY 2021-22 suffered high levels of winterkill as a result of ice crusting, but the USDA said that this was less likely to affect the upcoming crop since satellite images showed "minimal periods of freeze/thaw/freeze events."
Prospects for the Russian crop were supported by favorable moisture in April, the USDA said, but it warned that "yield development will largely depend on May and June weather."
The USDA's estimate is below that of the Russian government, whose president Vladimir Putin on May 12 raised the prospect of a record crop in 2022, exceeding the 85.9 million mt from 2020. Putin told economic officials in Moscow that the government currently expects 87 million mt of wheat to be harvested. This figure is similar to agricultural consultancy Sovecon's estimate of 87.4 million mt in its April update. "Plants look good (almost) all over the country," said its head Andrey Sizov." (https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...ls-output-fall).

The Russian government's official numbers include the territory of Crimea, unlike the USDA's. The Ukrainian government's statistics also exclude Crimea and the conflict zones in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

I imagine, too, that the yield depends on having people and machinery to harvest it. I understand Russian combine harvesters are built with CLASS technology, i.e, technology from a German company. Getting parts, etc., might be a problem. Replacing the dead and wounded killed in Ukraine might take longer.

[Dragonman]

Helicopters - 5pcs, 10 Bayractars, 3 small ships, up to 40 soldiers - Ukrainian losses at May 9 at Zmeiniy (Snake). Zelenskiy wanted victory for propaganda and ordered retake island. Loudest fiasco.

Are you citing Russian losses at Snake Island? Just Google "snake island latest news," and watch the latest videos of Russian losses on CNN. Any claims from Russian sources about Ukrainian losses are as believable as Russian statements that there were only 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded between24 February and 25 March 2022. A CNN report from May 12 (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/13/e...ntl/index.html) shows a destroyed helicopter and a submerged landing craft.

A louder fiasco - Putin expected to take all Ukraine in one week. His troops are reported to have packed parade uniforms for a victory parade in Kyiv, expecting to be welcomed with open arms (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...in-kyiv-2022-4), something that has not been denied.

The scaled-down May 9 Victory Day Parade - with no aircraft because of "bad weather," fewer tanks and marching troops, and Putin reportedly wearing a bullet proof vest (https://www.google.com/search?client...in+flak+jacket) - demonstrated the dictionary meaning of "fiasco," i.e., "a complete failure, especially a ludicrous or humiliating one." I suspect Putin was reminded of the other leaders, such as Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who have been killed by their troops at victory parades.