The Brink of War?

[Moses]

==== Did you mistype the number of reservists as 25 million? Published sources put the figure at only 2.5 million (International Institute for Strategic Studies (25 February 2021) ===

Nope. Reservists in Russia is every one who has military ID (in direct translation from Russian "Military ticket"). Here are 2 types of reservists.
- professionals, they have monthly salary (very small, like a compensation for troubles, about $250 monthly, or maybe even yearly, I don't remember), they sign special contracts and must participate in yearly trainings for one month
- other holders of military ID, they must to participate in one-month long trainings once per 5 years, but state calls for training usually only reservists who is below 35 yo, or below 45 yo if he is officer.

2,5 mln are professionals, total q-ty of reserve is 25 mln.

[Dragonman]

==== Did you mistype the number of reservists as 25 million? Published sources put the figure at only 2.5 million (International Institute for Strategic Studies (25 February 2021) ===

Nope. Reservists in Russia is every one who has military ID (in direct translation from Russian "Military ticket"). Here are 2 types of reservists.
- professionals, they have monthly salary (very small, like a compensation for troubles, about $250 monthly, or maybe even yearly, I don't remember), they sign special contracts and must participate in yearly trainings for one month
- other holders of military ID, they must to participate in one-month long trainings once per 5 years, but state calls for training usually only reservists who is below 35 yo, or below 45 yo if he is officer.

2,5 mln are professionals, total q-ty of reserve is 25 mln.

The clarification was most useful.

So, in effect, any fighting on the Russian side from now on is likely to be by military personnel whose contracts have been unilaterally extended without consultation (and who probably don't want to be there), and by people suddenly called up and who have received only a short period of training/retraining (and who also probably don't want to be there), just as winter approaches. I know that General Winter (or General Frost, if you prefer) has been a Russian ally in the past, but I wonder if that will be the case this time as temperatures begin to drop as September draws to a close?

[Dodger]

I wonder if Putin will threaten the Russian protestors with nukes?

[Moses]

=== and by people suddenly called up and who have received only a short period of training/retraining ===

you again didn't get... every reservist is person who served in army at least one year, of had military education in university as a officer for 5 years (almost each state civilian university here has military department, where males 5 years study military subjects and receive officer's degree (and range) along with civilian diploma)

so my post was not about "short period", it is about yearly "short period" for "to keep / up to date" skills which they got in normal army service in past

[cdnmatt]

Moses, Russia has lost the war my son. And a long time ago as well.

Get over it, Russia is not going to win this war. Just the fact they've had to turn to conscription is proof they have lost the war. It's over, Russia lost, deal with it.

[Dragonman]

=== and by people suddenly called up and who have received only a short period of training/retraining ===

you again didn't get... every reservist is person who served in army at least one year, of had military education in university as a officer for 5 years (almost each state civilian university here has military department, where males 5 years study military subjects and receive officer's degree (and range) along with civilian diploma)

so my post was not about "short period", it is about yearly "short period" for "to keep / up to date" skills which they got in normal army service in past

I read the qualifications for calling up but my comment about "a short period of training/retraining referred to the period after being recalled to service, not what happened before, to acquaint them with possible/probable changes in equipment brought about by the losses so far sustained by the Russian forces (e.g., thousands of tanks, and considerable quantities of other equipment) and older replacements brought out of storage (such as including decades-old T-62 tanks) - or even weapons, etc., brought from abroad, such as Turkish or Iranian drones ("Russia Is Scouring the Globe for Weapons to Use Against Ukraine," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...war-in-ukraine).

[Moses]

I read the qualifications for calling up but my comment about "a short period of training/retraining referred to the period after being recalled to service, not what happened before, to acquaint them with possible/probable changes in equipment brought about by the losses so far sustained by the Russian forces (e.g., thousands of tanks, and considerable quantities of other equipment) and older replacements brought out of storage (such as including decades-old T-62 tanks) - or even weapons, etc., brought from abroad, such as Turkish or Iranian drones ("Russia Is Scouring the Globe for Weapons to Use Against Ukraine," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...war-in-ukraine).

As of 2021, the Russian Ground Forces have 2,840 tanks in service and 10,200 tanks in storage, as well as 330 tanks in the formations of the Coastal Forces of the Navy and 160 tanks in the Airborne Forces

Iranian drones already made Ukrainians cry https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ps-11663415140

[Moses]

Moses, Russia has lost the war my son. And a long time ago as well.

Get over it, Russia is not going to win this war. Just the fact they've had to turn to conscription is proof they have lost the war. It's over, Russia lost, deal with it.

"your son" is in your pants, dear... soft and useless

As per your wet dreams about results of this military conflict, I'm very happy what you are predicting "Russia lost" since no one your prediction in this thread is correct. Do you remember Matty "200 rub per dollar"? "15% of GDP fall"?

Ruble is 60:1 - 18% stronger than before conflict, current GDP shows this year will be -2.8% of GDP. Inflation in Russia 12%, while in some countries of EU is over 25%.

So then more you "predict" lost of Russia, then more I'm sure in positive results.

By the way, have you seen Gazprom shares?

1663855764148.png

[Dragonman]

As of 2021, the Russian Ground Forces have 2,840 tanks in service and 10,200 tanks in storage, as well as 330 tanks in the formations of the Coastal Forces of the Navy and 160 tanks in the Airborne Forces

Iranian drones already made Ukrainians cry https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ps-11663415140

The number of tanks "As of 2021" is irrelevant, given that a considerable percentage of them - some estimates as high as 40% (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...nalysis-a78727) - have already been destroyed in only 6 months. The number of tanks in storage is impressive - but in reality, nobody – likely not even Russia – knows precisely how many of those estimated thousands can emerge from storage and be made operational again. Even if they can be made operational, that will take time and human resources that may not be available, and probably require retraining those tank personnel whose original training was on more modern machines. Moreover, any tanks recovered from storage will have to be transported from wherever they are, which will require considerable logistical power.

Weapons and personnel are only useful when they are operational and when they can be deployed.

The Iranian drones may have made Ukrainians cry, but the Ukrainian resistance has forced Putin to call for the mobilization of 300,000 reservists because a "special military operation" to take the whole of Ukraine would take a matter of days has now last seven months - and the Russians have been retreating. Russian forces look spectacular when marching in choreographed Victory Day parades, less so when they are in precipitate humiliating retreat, leaving everything behind.

[Dragonman]

=== and by people suddenly called up and who have received only a short period of training/retraining ===

you again didn't get... every reservist is person who served in army at least one year, of had military education in university as a officer for 5 years (almost each state civilian university here has military department, where males 5 years study military subjects and receive officer's degree (and range) along with civilian diploma)

so my post was not about "short period", it is about yearly "short period" for "to keep / up to date" skills which they got in normal army service in past

According to a report in the UK publication "The Telegraph," a considerable number of either those 25 million ordinary reservists or the 2.5 professional reservists might soon find themselves on the front line - "Putin ‘passes secret law to send one million Russians to fight in Ukraine,’ Nataliya Vasilyeva - Yesterday 21:24" (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...f116d3586ed01c). The article claims that "Vladimir Putin has secretly approved a law that could send a further one million men to fight in Ukraine, according to information leaked from the Kremlin."

The claim is in reference to the redacted Section 7 of Putin's decree, and a claim that the number of personnel to be reactivated "had been revised several times and that the Russian military insisted on it being classified."

Other newspapers are reporting this claim as well, e.g., https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ine-classified and https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...llion-28056046.

This is another instance of where we will have to wait to see if fact is stranger than fiction.