Some of the Covid data emerging in the UK is looking really encouraging, but also creating a good argument for a radical policy change in countries where Omicron has not yet taken off.
1) Evidence on how severe Omicron is as an infection suggests that it is like a mild cold, and typically short lived, rarely symptomatic for more than two or three days. Hospitalisation as a direct consequence of Omicron is rare - a report today indicates that 80% of those testing positive when admitted to hospital were admitted for other reasons.
Any bug can be life threatening when someone is on their death bed, but the mortality risk for those in average health appears to be effectively zero.
2) Omicron is displacing Delta. A key question has been whether Omicron would infect alongside Delta or displace it. Data published last night indicates that over 90% of Covid cases in the UK are now Omicron, and that the number of Delta cases is falling rapidly. Displacement is clearly at play.
3) Omicron seems to be a bit picky about where it takes off. The most intense outbreaks are countries that have either black African genes prevalent in the population or the genes that can cause red hair. Where neither are common it's being slow to gain traction.
However, in the UK, the displacement of Delta suggests that it is not picking and choosing who it infects, which implies the genetic element may determine who the most effective vectors of the bug are, rather than those most vulnerable to it.
Logic now dictates that Omicron should be welcomed as a tolerable variant of Covid that displaces Delta. To that end, countries like Thailand should now throw their doors open to tourists and remove all testing, restrictions and mask requirements, so that Omicron can now be seeded by tourists in the local population to drive out Delta.
However, I wonder how long it will take for such logic to sink in..?
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