So, when WILL tourism return to normal?

[christianpfc]

Indeed, you could argue that the tourists are kept in Phuket to protect them from Covid in the rest of Thailand!

A friend recently said that the Delta variant is a good thing. And assuming that Covid will reach everywhere and nobody (except nuclear sumbarine, space station, polar research station, ...) can escape, he is right! Delta will speed up the process of achieving herd immunity, and once that is achieved, we can finally go back to normal (whatever the new normal is).

Back in December, I got my COE with confirmation of booking from my ASQ hotel, ...
I haven't checked the sandbox in detail (yet), but if I were going to Phuket, I'd be looking for a hotel with fair payment and cancellation terms. Even if I had to e-mail over 50 of them.

If there were no other way to get to SEAsia, I would do it (either ASQ in Bangkok or sandbox in Phuket), but now, having settled quite nicely in Cambodia (better than expected), and the situation in Thailand worse than expected, I can wait.

There is nothing to gain for Thailand by keeping the borders closed and quarantining/sandboxing tourists; on the contrary, infection rates in Thailand are higher than among tourists (my assumption, probably could find statistical proof). When they realize this and open the border for all and sundry, I will be over the next day!

The main problem is slow and inefficient government, be it democracy or military dictatorship. I wonder how long it will take to remove all barriers to international travel introduced to combat Covid, once Covid is over.

[Old git]

There is nothing to gain for Thailand by keeping the borders closed and quarantining/sandboxing tourists; on the contrary, infection rates in Thailand are higher than among tourists (my assumption, probably could find statistical proof). When they realize this and open the border for all and sundry, I will be over the next day!

The main problem is slow and inefficient government, be it democracy or military dictatorship. I wonder how long it will take to remove all barriers to international travel introduced to combat Covid, once Covid is over.

Countries tend to take a 'follow my leader' approach to Covid, and look at what other countries are doing before acting. Add to that, the influence of Covid profiteering on government decision making.

Delta now accounts for about 80% of infections, globally, and there are no new variants challenging its dominance. It cannot be long before a number of enlightened governments start ending travel restrictions and testing on the grounds that there is no longer anything new to fear, after which the dominoes will start to fall.

Thailand would not be Thailand if some of the money paid to the ASQ regime did not end up in the back pockets of those in power, so I don't expect the government to be in the vanguard of cancelling quarantine requirements, but once the inevitability of that little earner ending sinks in, the need for a big distraction to get the protests to calm down might provoke a sudden about turn - we shall see..

[Old git]

A little aside.. - despite widespread doomster predictions of further varaints of Covid, all the WHO 'varaints of concern' and 'variants of interest' had their origins last year. Nothing new of significance has appeared since last December.

The argument for continuing travel control and quarantine measures against some unseen variant bogeyman is wearing very thin now..

[Dodger]

.

Nothing new of significance has appeared since last December.

Let's just hope it stays that way...Delta is bad enough.

[Old git]

Let's just hope it stays that way...Delta is bad enough.

It could be a blessing in disguise. If Delta, through it's much greater transmissability, displaces all other variants, including any nascent variants of Delta itself, the human immune system will only need to become optimised for one form of the bug, which could in turn drive itself into an evolutionary dead end.

[francois]

It could be a blessing in disguise. If Delta, through it's much greater transmissability, displaces all other variants, including any nascent variants of Delta itself, the human immune system will only need to become optimised for one form of the bug, which could in turn drive itself into an evolutionary dead end.

Sounds good but more like wishful thinking. I believe there will be other variants to contend with, much like the flu variants that change from year to year.

[latintopxxx]

unfortunately beacuse a large percentage cant or refuse to be immunised new starins will evolve....pity that the acts of the selfish impact the rest of us

[Old git]

Sounds good but more like wishful thinking. I believe there will be other variants to contend with, much like the flu variants that change from year to year.

Flu bugs and corona type bugs are very different. Flu bugs mix and match, and also suffer senility (the 1919 bug grew old and died quite suddenly) - corona type bugs are more enduring, but less versatile - we'll see..

[Old git]

unfortunately beacuse a large percentage cant or refuse to be immunised new starins will evolve....pity that the acts of the selfish impact the rest of us

With respect, I think you'e buying into a Pfizer shareholder narrative there - the notion that Covid vaccination protects others now looks holed below the waterline.

The vaccinations help protect the individual from bad outcomes, but there is precious little evidence that they prevent infection or spread..

[Dodger]

.

- corona type bugs are more enduring, but less versatile - we'll see..

Sounds like my first boyfriend. I prefer the versatile types.