So, when WILL tourism return to normal?

[Old git]

Correct me if my impressions seem off-track - I find Thai politics less than exciting, so don't scrutinise events on a day by day basis.

My impressions, as of this moment, are that:

a) The current government does not seem to be in any hurry to get tourist numbers back to the heady 100k per day levels. There is scant acknowledgement of tourism's critical importance to the Thai economy.

b) Those of below average income are far more severely affected by the lack of tourism than the government will acknowledge.

c) The current demonstrations, whilst motivated by a cocktail of grievances, are fuelled by the lack of tourism.

d) That Thailand is no stranger to mass protests, and that Thai governments do not always concede to them.

e) That the spectre of a second lost tourist high season is likely to further inflame the protests.

So, what will prevail? Is the upcoming tourist season a lost cause, or will the desperation of those who need tourism to feed themselves, force the hands of those in power?

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[Manforallseasons]

Is the upcoming tourist season a lost cause, or will the desperation of those who need tourism to feed themselves, force the hands of those in power?

This one is easy, yes the upcoming tourist season is a lost cause and no the powers that be will not be phased by those most adversely affected.

[goji]

There is no point at all in trying to start a tourism recovery when there are lockdowns at the peak of a covid outbreak.

They can START on the path to recovery when a high percentage of the population have vaccines, which ought to be towards the end of the year.
A full recovery in volume tourism may take years & it's not all in the Thai government's hands either, since if China imposes 2 week quarantine and a pile of paperwork on returning citizens, that stops their people going on holidays. Which is fine by me. I believe other countries have more or less stopped travel.
I reckon any board members that really want to take a long holiday in Thailand will probably see an option later in the year.
That's with the possible exception of members living in countries run like a penal colony, such as North Korea, Australia etc (I'm presuming it's a temporary state of affairs in the latter).

As for the protests, well it might just take more than protesting to dislodge these clowns. Just look at how certain European countries achieved freedom.
I don't think the government cares at all about the disadvantaged. All their economic support seems to be in supporting the favoured construction industry, rather the the sectors that need support the most.

[Old git]

They can START on the path to recovery when a high percentage of the population have vaccines, which ought to be towards the end of the year.

That would be a fine agenda if it wasn't economically important and there was clear evidence from other nations that delivering the vaccines resolves the problem.

But the people need the money, and the vaccines, whilst good at protecting the vulnerable from bad outcomes, are not delivering a quick fix.

Think about the rural families of Issan, running up debts with loan sharks until a dutiful daughter trots off to lie on her back in Pattaya, to pay it all back - are they going to get deeper in debt? With no-one making repayments, do the loan sharks have the funds to lend for that matter?

The prospect of another season lost seems potentially explosive..

[christianpfc]

There are several internal and external factors:

Does your home country allow you to leave for a vacation?
How are you treated upon return to your home country?
How are flight connections? I skipped this year's summer holiday in Germany for various reasons, one is horrible flights (twice as expensive and twice as long and twice as many changes of airplane than before Covid).

Entry requirements for Thailand. COE is a strong deterrent for me. I'm happy to deposit 2000 USD to enter Cambodia, but paying for Covid tests in advance to the hotel I'm going to stay at, and submitting the receipt from hotel to apply for COE, is too much! (Requirement for Phuket Sandbox.)

How is the situation in Thailand? I'm heavily reliant on public transport, hotels and restaurants being open. In the long run, gogo bars open would be nice. A Thailand with closed bars, no dine-in in restaurant, curfew, travel limitation is not attractive to me.

Travel elsewhere in SEAsia. It will be years, if at all, than you can just go from one country to another for fun or for visa run.

[Old git]

With Delta at the top of the Covid food chain and most countries now having Delta widespread, the only major nations likely to carry on causing issues into the high season for their own folk coming and going are Oz and NZ. Obviously things could change if the Covid saga throws out a new twist.

Thailand however, is going to get nowhere with tourism until it abandons all ideas of quarantining visitors..

[goji]

Entry requirements for Thailand. COE is a strong deterrent for me. I'm happy to deposit 2000 USD to enter Cambodia, but paying for Covid tests in advance to the hotel I'm going to stay at, and submitting the receipt from hotel to apply for COE, is too much! (Requirement for Phuket Sandbox.)

Back in December, I got my COE with confirmation of booking from my ASQ hotel, which needed only a 15,000 baht deposit. They actually stated in the case of an enforced cancellation, I could be refunded everything except the 2.5% forex fee (so I wrote that on the bottom of the credit card authorization form).

If I'd needed to pay the full 50,000 baht on a non-refundable basis, it would be much less attractive.

I haven't checked the sandbox in detail (yet), but if I were going to Phuket, I'd be looking for a hotel with fair payment and cancellation terms. Even if I had to e-mail over 50 of them.

[arsenal]

Reading NIrish's post on his trip to Edinburgh tells you how this will most likely play out.
Get you're population vaccinated.
They will then party so weekenders from Bangkok will travel down and the bars/restaurants will open.
Welcome vaccinated tourists from overseas.
Accept you'll get a few cases and a few deaths. Like with almost everything else in life.

This doesn't include the wussie pussy Chinese who are inherently skittish.

[Dodger]

My dart throw:

International Tourism will never return to "Normal" - not here...not anywhere...not in our lifetimes.

Domestic tourism will continue to grow in leaps-and-bounds everywhere - except possibly Afganistan (tongue in cheek).

Many business owners and expats residing in Thailand seem to agree, that tourism will be opening up when the majority of the population gets vaccinated and the Delta Variant is under control - which could hopefully be sometime in the middle of next year. This estimate is based on the sluggish acquisition of the vaccine(s), data trends related to the delta variant, and political factors.

God willing and the creek don't rise, we should start seeing fewer lockdown restrictions and more planes landing at Suvarnabhumi next year.

Sandbox Schemes will continue to be promoted (with or without quarantine) where you would be traveling at your own risk.

Just for the record (Brad, you're gonna love this): I've always been very negative about these Sandbox Schemes, but if I was marooned back in the States and unable to return to Thailand (my home, my boy, my swimming pool), I would signup for a Sandtrap in a heartbeat (with or without quarantine) as long as I could get back home (Bang Saray) after the quarantine was over. I would pay a Visa Agent when I arrived back home to extend my visa (if needed) and be done with it. I've never used an Agent before - but in this case I would if I had to.

[Old git]

I note from a media report 12 days ago, that Delta has now been found in 75 out of the 77 provinces in Thailand.

Begs the question: What is the quarantining of tourists now supposed to achieve?