Poll: Under which Quarantine conditions would you holiday in Thailand?

[Manforallseasons]

Cases have jumped in holland too, this last week. 300.000 mostly young people were tested over the weekend, and that's where the big spike is coming from. What's important is that hospitalization is still going down and deaths too. When vaccinated people get infected but not seriously ill, I would say "mission accomplished." Hoping for more is just dreaming.

Not sure what this has to do with Thailand? Thailand has a very small amount of people vaccinated and hospitals in the areas hard hit are full, actually two in Bangkok are refusing any new patients.

[cdnmatt]

Not sure what this has to do with Thailand? Thailand has a very small amount of people vaccinated and hospitals in the areas hard hit are full, actually two in Bangkok are refusing any new patients.

The more knowledge we have about the virus, the better prepared and informed we can be. For example, as I stated previously, more than likely Thailand is about to descend into a Inda type of chaos, and there's pretty much no way around that at this point. That's why I'm a little perplexed when folks like Dodger have made the decision to just wait it out, and see what happens. Well, we already know what's going to happen, and again, we have 20 months of data to back this up.

If I was in his shoes, I'd be same like fancois. My red flags would have been raised a while ago, and I'd have my flights booked to get myself vaccinated.


We have 20 months of data now, we know this.

[gerefan2]

If I was in his shoes, I'd be same like fancois. My red flags would have been raised a while ago, and I'd have my flights booked to get myself vaccinated.

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Surely it’s not that simple?

If I had been living in Thailand for decades I’m sure I would not have anywhere I could return home to for several months while I wait for the second jab. It would mean siting it out in a motel or hotel for a long time and very costly.

You would need some very accommodating friends to avoid that.

There’s also the question of quarantine possibly at both ends. Another enormous expense, for those who have homes in Thailand.

Finally there’s the real possibility that Thailand could shut its borders again and you could be stranded far from your Thai home with a chance of becoming destitute.

Finally, how many expats have actually caught Covid in Thailand?i

[goji]

. Finally, how many expats have actually caught Covid in Thailand?i

I agree with all your comments, but in particular this one needs consideration.

Let's assume an expat had to wait 6 months for a vaccine, so what are his very rough odds of dying from covid during that time ?
We see Thailand has 2276 covid deaths out of a population of almost 70 million. Mostly in the last 2 months. So we could multiply that death number by 3 to get to 6 months AND multiply by 10 to be pessimistic, as cases are going up. Then multiply by 10 for those of a certain age. I make that about 0.1% chance of dying from covid.
I've ignored the opportunities to reduce risk, since members don't work in a 7-Eleven and commute to work on the Bangkok skytrain, but can actually minimize exposure for much of the day.

Despite the pessimism in calculating that, our hypothetical expat's chances of death from covid are still about an order of magnitude less than his chances of dying from something else in the same time. [Assuming he is of retirement age]


Meanwhile, we are already reading that some of the keener expats in Bangkok are getting vaccinated, which is why I assumed getting a vaccine within 6 months. Maybe less if following methods used by others.

[Dodger]

Despite the pessimism in calculating that, our hypothetical expat's chances of death from covid are still about an order of magnitude less than his chances of dying from something else in the same time. [Assuming he is of retirement age]

I agree, that statistically the odds of a retired expat dying from covid are very small, although there is another factor that I think needs to be considered, and that's the "Stress Factor".

The older we get the easier it seems to be to get stressed out, sometimes over situations where younger people wouldn't even bat an eye. The harmful effects of "Stress" are rated as one of the leading causes of death, not only in the older generation, but in all generations.

Fear, anxiety, and other negative emotions, resulting from extreme stress, can actually lower a persons immune system, and tax the heart and other vital organs as well causing premature death.

I don't know a single expat over here who has contacted covid, but, at the same time, I don't know a single expat who isn't stressed out over the situation either. Each person handles stress differently. Some seem to be handling this situation very well - and others are not.

So it's not so much about the odds of dying from the virus that older expats are concerned with, it's the solution to relieving their stress levels so they can return to living a stress-free life with a sense of security again.

The vaccine is the solution.

[goji]

The vaccine is the solution.

I agree.
However if you have (for example) a 1.2% chance of dying in the next 6 months without covid and that increases by 0.1% to 1.3% with covid, it wouldn't make sense to go on an overseas trip to get the vaccine and do 2 weeks quarantine upon return. Unless of course, that's a holiday you want anyway.

Copying the methods used by other people to get a vaccine is probably much easier.

Meanwhile, one esteemed board member was so happy with the odds, that he extended his Thai holiday despite being eligible for a vaccine back home in the UK (not me).

[Manforallseasons]

It won’t be for you to decide under what conditions you would return, regardless of what the government says sandbox or sandcastle the handling of vaccine procurement and distribution is appalling. My MD has no confidence in Sinovac of which all hospital staffs by now have gotten at least one dose, he said most well to do Thais are going to Europe or the U.S. for a vaccine. The P.M. went to see the opening of the Phuket sandbox and spoke to a businessman that was later Covid positive and now even though the P.M.who would not take Sinovac and insisted on Astra Zeneca now is in self isolation. The vaccine situation is an utter disaster frankly, I don’t think much will change till hopefully the second quarter of 2022 and it surely won’t be business as usual.

[vnman]

Not sure what this has to do with Thailand? Thailand has a very small amount of people vaccinated and hospitals in the areas hard hit are full, actually two in Bangkok are refusing any new patients.

Did you see that I was responding to a post?

[Manforallseasons]

Did you see that I was responding to a post?

My apologies.

[Brad the Impala]

Here's a good example. Israel, a poster boy example of an excellent avvination rollout, is now having issues with variants. Cases have recently jumped by 50%.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz4uYqVxQss

This may be related to the fact that Israel has been predominately vaccinating with the Pfizer vaccine, which is now seeming to be less effective against the Delta variant than previously thought, but still better than Sinovac.

FT STATES:

Efficacy of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine against infection with the Delta variant of coronavirus is lower than initially thought, a study has revealed.

Data collected over the past month suggest the vaccine is 64 per cent effective at halting infection among those who are fully inoculated, down from a previous estimate of 94 per cent, Israel’s health ministry has found.

https://on.ft.com/3r25pcd