It all looks even grimmer in the western news.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/thai-volun...124534929.html
It all looks even grimmer in the western news.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/thai-volun...124534929.html
Originally Posted by Moggy
That sucks to hear. I've been pushing my guy the best I can to get a vaccine, but he's still hesitant for some reason. I know Laos has Johnson and Johnson available, and he can just show up at a hospital and grab one if he wants.
Hopefully he does soon, because Covid is getting out of control in Asia. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
Posts in this thread which refer to Covid 19 in Malta have been moved here :
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A447
Moderator
So, I wonder what the real deal in Thailand is? How many people are getting enough exposure to build antibodies compared to the offical recorded case count?
If you trawl the sero prevalence data for the UK and compare that to the number of recorded cases, you can calculate that over eight people acquired Covid antibodies for every recorded case during the first year of the pandemic. As of today, the UK has approaching 95% of the population with antibodies, and despite the hype it seems that more got them in the first instance from natural exposure, rather than from vaccination.
In Thailand a sero-prevalence study of conscripts earlier this year suggested virtually no antibodies in the population at all. The number was so low however, the result seemed a little suspect.
But what is the ratio now? What percentage of cases in Thailand are too mild to be noticed - what percentage are going uncounted because those involved can't afford medical care?
How pro-active is the Thai government when it comes to identifying and counting cases? - or are they only counting those they can't deny?
Is 100k recorded cases per week actually a million - or two million - or more..?
In the UK the bug now appears to be burning itself out due to lack of people left to infect - I wonder how long it will take Thailand to reach that stage?
What are your sources that show where the UK population got the antibodies from ?
Two weeks ago, 87.2% of the UK population had received vaccines.
According to latest ONS data, 91.9% of the population in England have antibodies & figures are in the same ballpark for the rest of the UK.
Before vaccination started in early December 2020, the ONS reckoned 11.7% of the UK population had antibodies.
(All my data from gov.uk)
The simplest illustration can be seen from the sero prevalence data from the 19th April '21, when 69.3% of people had Covid antibodies, yet at the same time the greatest number that could have had them from vaccination was 31%. Given that many of those 31% would be people who already had antibodies from exposure before they were vaccinated, it can be seen that at that stage vaccination was already a minor player in delivering antibodies, a significance that has continued to diminish since. About 90% of people currently being vaccinated will already have antibodies.
The most recent data you quote references June 28th - over four weeks ago now. By looking at prior numbers and extending the line, taking into account an expected attenuation; you can arrive at a figure of approximately 95% today. However the recent surge in cases must have accelerated the 'mop-up' element. There's quite a high likelihood the current figure is over 96% now - we can certainly be confident about 95%.
(All data from official sources)
On 19 April, about 68% of adults had covid antibodies, similar to your figure, so I agree on that (source ONS)
However, on 19 April, 62.5% of adults had one dose of the vaccine, or if we allow 14 days to acquire the antibodies, then on the 5th of April, 59.8% had at least one dose of the vaccine (source gov.co.uk). Far higher than 31%.
Is there an interactive, colour-coded map of Thailand?
I would appreciate a link.
You have to distinguish between percentage of adults and percentage of the population. The UK government (unlike most other countries) tends to quote percentage of adults when quoting vaccination rates, but the ourworldindata site helpfully converts this to percentage of population, to bring it in line with other nations.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Does one jab give you antibodies - and when? The published data on this is very cautious, saying that one jab 'might' give you antibodies after a fortnight. I took the mid point between first and second jabs as the highest likely number.
Maybe that was over-pessimistic, but even if you take the most optimistic scenario and assume that everyone will test positive for antibodies two weeks after their first jab, it remains hard to construct an argument that vaccination has been the primary source of antibodies, after deducting the number likely to have had them before being jabbed.
An interesting aside to this is the June 14th data, which showed sero-prevalence of 89.8%, indicating that two thirds of those who did not have antibodies eight weeks prior, gained them during that period. As vaccination is not selective, it was not the primary player here, nor were the relatively small (around 200k recorded) number of cases during that period.
What seems to be at play are large numbers of people who received a light encounter with the bug over the winter, a viral load too small to initiate an infection, but large enough to provoke a gradual immune response.
As far as the LoS is concerned, this gives cause for hope. If the current wave is giving enough people a light encounter with the bug, there could well be a high percentage of the population displaying antibodies by year end.
As we are looking at antibodies in UK adults, it makes sense to compare with vaccination rates in UK adults, which is exactly what I have done in my previous post.
The ONS only publishes antibody data for UK adults, so to compare that with vaccination data for the entire population from OurWorldinData would give the wrong result.
I would imagine only a few percent of the Thai population have antibodies from infection. The majority of Thais with antibodies will have them from vaccination, as in the UK.
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