When will Thailand and the world re-open for tourism? Speculation Time

[StevieWonders]

We're now in 2021 so it's Speculation Time again. Last July I posted "for Thailand not 2020, Songkran 2021 more likely" and included phrases like "rocks in their head" for those who thought otherwise. Now? I think Songkran 2021 is looking too optimistic. Q4 2021 seems much more likely. It was crystallised for me by a press conference held in Australia earlier today.

Last week the former Australian Chief Medical Officer (Brendan Murphy) was widely reported as saying "international travel is highly unlikely in 2021". From today's comments I infer that the politicians have told him to pull his head in; that's not the narrative the punters want to hear. Reference was made by the Prime Minister to an international hook-up to pool information.

Today the same individual (Murphy) said "We'll have a good idea in 3 to 4 months' time about vaccine effectiveness and the need for quarantine for those who have been vaccinated".

That puts us mid-year, roughly. By the time everyone gets their ducks in a row (not one of Thailand's strengths at the best of times) we'll be 2 or 3 months on. Hence my Q4 prediction. Here's a link to the press conference - Murphy's comments are in the last 15 minutes.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1lDxLpNeEVRxm

What's your prediction? (All underlines are mine)

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[Blueskytoday]

Next year...don't think the 14 day quarantine nor the other restrictions will let up..

[StevieWonders]

Next year...don't think the 14 day quarantine nor the other restrictions will let up..

Closely argued, as always.

[Armando]

With problems now occurring at the vaccine makers and new strains seemingly becoming more virulent, I reckon travel in 2021 is going to continue to be pretty much a dead duck. The virus will continue to mutate, Will the vaccines cover the next new strain? Predictions are merely personal viewpoints. We live in very uncertain times.

[Manforallseasons]

Thailand’s approach to securing vaccines for a large part of its population has be haphazard to say the least, until such a time comes that enough of the populous is vaccinated reopening tourism is a bridge too far.

[Marc K]

If we are VERY lucky (read: no major new variants stifle progress) we MIGHT be able to do some international travel by EOY 2021. This is travel between advanced (read: vaccinated) countries. Since, as others have pointed out above, Thailand is likely to stumble on vaccination, then I doubt any of us will be seeing the LOS until 2022, perhaps mid-2022.

Here's the rub -- the longer the world dawdles around with vaccination attempts, the more likely it is that a nasty mutation will pop up which resets progress in vaccine development, perhaps nearly wiping out the current progress. So, IMHO, the world should marshal its resources (money and supplies) ASAP and go ALL OUT to vaccinate everyone who walks or breathes as soon as possible. That's our best bet to get this stupid virus behind us. Will the world do it? I'm not at all sure alas.

See you for a drink in Jomtien Complex in 2023? :O

[StevieWonders]

Thailand’s approach to securing vaccines for a large part of its population has be haphazard to say the least, until such a time comes that enough of the populous is vaccinated reopening tourism is a bridge too far.

Yes, haphazard is a good way to describe it. Here’s one story about private health providers getting in on the act. 3,200 baht doesn’t sound too bad - expect requests for “vaccination money” to come flooding in from boys you may know - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29N0XK

[arsenal]

Que sera sera.

[cdnmatt]

I'm not sure. Logically, it'd be summer of 2022 after the upcoming winter 2021 wave starting in about 10 months. And that's assuming no major new variants mutate during that time that existing plans can't handle (ie. vaccines are ineffective).

However, humans and especially politicians, tend to have short memories especially when it's ambitious and opportunistic to do so. Starting in about 2 - 3 months it's going to feel like this virus almost fell off a cliff, and cases will decline sharply and rapidly. Some people will claim its the vaccine taking effect and the virus is over, which will simply be false, but there will be a renewed push from folks to reopen borders to help the ailing economy. Not sure if ti will work or not...

[Dodger]

I agree pretty much with everyone else. 2021 for Thailand could be a wash.

It's times like this that I really appreciate having a live-in boyfriend...not a bad port in this storm at all.

That's an intentional dig for my friends who've been ribbing me for years about trading in my butterfly wings for Little House on the Prairie.