New Vaccine 90% Effective!

[StevieWonders]

The full press release nowhere says that those vaccinated were exposed to the virus. In fact an argument rages elsewhere about the ethics of doing any such thing although we can guess that authoritarian regimes have carried out such testing. The salient paragraph in the press release says “ Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC performed its first analysis on all cases. The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose. This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a 2-dose schedule. As the study continues, the final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary.”

The full press release can be found here - https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...didate-against

[Moses]

The full press release nowhere says that those vaccinated were exposed to the virus. In fact an argument rages elsewhere about the ethics of doing any such thing although we can guess that authoritarian regimes have carried out such testing.

They just kept members of trial to live normal life. There were no special "exposition to virus". That why from 44000+ participant of trial there were only 94 who got COVID and from them 8 were vaccinated. Now they are waiting when will be 162 cases.

[goji]

The full press release nowhere says that those vaccinated were exposed to the virus.

They don't need to explain who has been exposed to the virus, as by simple probabilities, it is very obvious that many people will be exposed. I'm surprised it's only 94 cases, since the US has about 330 million people and has had almost 10 million covid cases.

44,000 people in the trial
50% with the vaccine and 50% with the placebo.

8 infections in vaccine group of 22,000
86 infections in placebo group of 22,000

Conclusion: Vaccine is useful.

[Note: The 8 and 86 are working back from 90% effectiveness. I'm assuming the immunologists define 90% effectiveness in the obvious way. ]

[StevieWonders]

They don't need to explain who has been exposed to the virus, as by simple probabilities, it is very obvious that many people will be exposed. I'm surprised it's only 94 cases, since the US has about 330 million people and has had almost 10 million covid cases.

44,000 people in the trial
50% with the vaccine and 50% with the placebo.

8 infections in vaccine group of 22,000
86 infections in placebo group of 22,000

Conclusion: Vaccine is useful.

[Note: The 8 and 86 are working back from 90% effectiveness. I'm assuming the immunologists define 90% effectiveness in the obvious way. ]

To quote 8 vs. 94 and say that gives 90% coverage is statistically meaningless. There’s no count of how many people in either group were exposed to the virus merely how many caught the virus.

This is a new type of vaccine - mRNA. These vaccines need to be stored at -80c. This could create major logistical challenges for mass treatment outside major urban areas and in low or middle income countries.

[Moses]

To quote 8 vs. 94 and say that gives 90% coverage is statistically meaningless.

No. Opposite. At time of such trials controlling organisation in advance names numbers when they will check effectiveness.

From press-release:

After discussion with the FDA, the companies recently elected to drop the 32-case interim analysis and conduct the first interim analysis at a minimum of 62 cases. Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC performed its first analysis on all cases.

[goji]

To quote 8 vs. 94 and say that gives 90% coverage is statistically meaningless. There’s no count of how many people in either group were exposed to the virus merely how many caught the virus.

Do you seriously expect a material difference between virus exposure rates for 2 groups of 22,000 who are randomly assigned the vaccine ?

Also, no one is referring to 90% coverage. They are referring to 90% effectiveness.
If the vaccine group infection rate is 90% lower than the placebo group, anyone who takes the time to think about it might conclude that it's 90% effective.
Even if they are a few percent out, the result is so far away from 0% effective that it's still worth having.

[StevieWonders]

Do you seriously expect a material difference between virus exposure rates for 2 groups of 22,000 who are randomly assigned the vaccine?

None of us here have any idea of that particular P(A|B) and won’t until the final outcomes are published in full rather than in a press release.

[goji]

I would expect almost all members could figure this out in seconds.
And spot when the mickey is being taken.

[StevieWonders]

So you’re not interested in discussing Conditional Probability?

[goji]

So you’re not interested in discussing Conditional Probability?

With two randomized groups of 22,000 and only 94 infections, that has no material influence on the result. So I have zero interest in discussing it. But don't let me stop you posting a detailed mathematical justification.

When preparing your thesis, please reference the following as well.......

The full press release nowhere says that those vaccinated were exposed to the virus.