Chinese Tourists to be Allowed Without Quarantine?

[goji]

Most of Thailand's high season tourist trade looks set to head off to Latin America this winter instead.

Now there's a good point. Possibly one that deserves it's own thread.
Thailand doesn't seem intent on letting westerners in any time soon, even with effective measures like testing & quarantine. If we are tested before flying and tested during 14 day quarantine, then we're not presenting a Covid risk to Thailand. But still, it seems they don't want tourists at present.

So where do we go instead ?
Some Latin American countries let us in, but last time I looked, they had high Covid infection rates. Now based on earlier mortality data, I'd estimated my own probability of dying if infected by Covid as ~1%. That's from death rates for early 50s age range.
Now it's not that easy to ignore 1%.

However, perhaps I should subtract a bit more for no KNOWN underlying conditions.

Also, I recently saw some death rate v age data with much much lower death rates, nearer 0.3% ? for my range, but cannot find it to post a link.
Also, the average age of people dying from Covid in the UK is apparently 82.4. [google pointed me to a Daily Mail article for that one]. That's about the age where males die anyway.

[arsenal]

"the Bangkok middle classes who are currently braving the water cannon in their clamour for democratic reform.."

The UK, the USA, most of Europe. Be careful what you wish for.

This never ending saga about Chinese tourists being allowed in is an absolute rrd herring.
Skittish at the best of times the Chinese are simply too scared to travel right now. They will remain so until their government tells them it's safe, regardless of any permissions granted by other countries. Recently this old gammer upon noticing yours truly was a foreigner immediately put on her crash helmet to protect her from the foreign disease.

[Old git]

"So where do we go instead ?
Some Latin American countries let us in, but last time I looked, they had high Covid infection rates. Now based on earlier mortality data, I'd estimated my own probability of dying if infected by Covid as ~1%. That's from death rates for early 50s age range.
Now it's not that easy to ignore 1%"

Not sure how you're arriving at that one. My number crunching is suggesting that much of Latin America is fast-tracking towards herd immunity. This bug is only nasty when it infects people who have had zero past contact with it, and even then most are asymptomatic. People who had low level contact with it - too small to generate an infection - are building immunity in response, resulting in a rapid drop, both in cases and mortality, in many countries now.

Of those currently dying WITH Covid (not to be confused with dying OF Covid) the great majority are at life's end already.

If you are in moderately good shape and under 80, you are very unlikely to come a cropper now..

[gerefan2]

Also, I recently saw some death rate v age data with much much lower death rates, nearer 0.3% ? for my range, but cannot find it to post a link.
Also, the average age of people dying from Covid in the UK is apparently 82.4. [google pointed me to a Daily Mail article for that one]. That's about the age where males die anyway.

Here is the info you were looking for...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...0-03-26#Ethnic

You will see they say...quote:
“ the rate of death involving Covid-19 for Black African males is still 2.5 times higher than for those of White background, and 2.1 times higher for Black African females.”

So,your estimate of 0.3% could probably be reduced by at least 50%!

As an aside, I am still waiting to hear from anyone who has had it, or anyone who knows anyone who has had it. And I’m saying that from the UK, one of the places often accused of having one of the highest rates of infection.

[goji]

I've been using a 1% mortality rate for people infected with covid, in the early 50s age range based on data published earlier in the pandemic, such as the graph below. Men have a higher fatality rate than women, but I might gain a bit back for good BMI.
Admittedly, this death rate is probably pessimistic now. And I believe the average age of covid deaths in the UK is 82.4, which is about when we keel over anyway !

As for Latin America, well Brazil currently has about 500 deaths a day from Covid. This has looked bad for months, but with the recent increase in the UK, it's in the same ballpark per capita. However, holidays mean more socializing.

If the trend continues downwards in Brazil, I might be tempted by December or January.

Particularly as the Thai government seems intent on keeping tourists out for now.

[Armando]

As for Latin America, well Brazil currently has about 500 deaths a day from Covid. This has looked bad for months, but with the recent increase in the UK, it's in the same ballpark per capita. However, holidays mean more socializing.

Brazil's daily rate of new infections was 30,574 on Oct. 16. Rates are falling and your chance of dying may be infinitesimal. I assume you are prepared to be infected and have to undergo a very nasty few weeks including possible hospitalisation. Great holiday!

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/brazil/

[francois]

.
Also, the average age of people dying from Covid in the UK is apparently 82.4. [google pointed me to a Daily Mail article for that one]. That's about the age where males die anyway.

What an appalling thought!

[sglad]

No. But I often wonder why readers of this forum read and post articles from the Pattaya rags.

Why not? I mean this forum is hardly The Economist or The New York Times - it's not even Matichon; it is no more than a virtual pub where participants come to whinge, shoot the breeze or, in some cases, pretend to be writers - broadcasting BS from their Pattaya bar stools - which is fine as long as you take it for what it is.

[sglad]

joining the Bangkok middle classes who are currently braving the water cannon in their clamour for democratic reform..

No. The protesters come from across the socio-economic spectrum and are not limited to Bangkokians. Protests are occurring all over the country; the reason why most of it is concentrated in Bangkok is because it is the seat of political power, in particular the institution we're not allowed to talk about. It is also where the major universities and schools are located, where the bulk of the protesters come from but the students are from all over the country. Also having the protests in the capital would attract the most visibility globally and might therefore be more "effective" from the protesters' perspective.

[Nirish guy]

I mean this forum is ...... no more than a virtual pub where participants come to .... in some cases, pretend .

But OH the Irony ! :-) lol