No End In Sight!

[arsenal]

There probably aren't enough tourists to spend $1000 a day to cover the loss of the mass market. Plus they wouldn't cover the costs of all the touristy stuff such as the two huge water parks, the floating market, the two magnificent sheep farms (I know, how lucky are we?), the crocodile farm, Siam Kingdom of Ice, the big bee farm and not forgetting my absolute favourite...Flower Land.

It's calculated that tourism is worth a little below 20% of the Thai economy. But that almost certainly doesn't include all the tips/off fees etc you pay out and you pay out a lot. If I spend 10000 baht in one day (rarely but sometimes) then 4000 of that is on off fee and tips. Now I may be wrong but I don't think the beautiful Thai sex worker is filling out a tax return.

Also, tourism allows millions of Thais to earn an honest living in reasonable conditions and is for many a ladder to a level up. If that ladder is removed then the civil unrest we've seen in the past will pale in comparison to what could happen.

[Oliver2]

And....sorry to be repetitive... much of that money ends up in rural areas and pays for school fees and the daily requirements of workers' families .

It's worth considering how the tourist industry, including the commercial sex scene, has enabled the Thai military elite and its allies to remain in power in an allegedly democratic country by providing a level of social and economic support without which civil strife would become inevitable..

In The Gambia it was estimated that one hotel worker supported an extended family of fifteen. Of course, Thailand is nowhere near as poor but the principle is true to various degrees in tourist- dependent countries across the world.

For this reason, i suspect that a tipping-point will come, at some stage and the economic needs of communities will force a change, assuming that there isn't an increase Covid victims.

[goji]

For this reason, i suspect that a tipping-point will come, at some stage and the economic needs of communities will force a change, assuming that there isn't an increase Covid victims.

Exactly. Turning off 20% of the economy indefinitely is going to create a lot of pressure on the government. Eventually they are going to have to open up with or without a vaccine.

I also don't quite see why they are so cautious with this particular risk to human health, whilst the same government does almost nothing about other causes of premature death, like road safety and pollution.

[Manforallseasons]

The more the government here in Thailand hears more of the virus spread in China, U.K. Europe, U.S. the likelihood of the tourist ban shall rightfully continue. The obsession with economic interests over public safety concerns has lead to the disaster in the U.S., U.K., Russia etc. is certainly clearly in the sights of the Thai government. I suspect no change in policy for the foreseeable future.

[Oliver2]

I agree; the need to protect health trumps economic development. Nevertheless it is reasonable to ask at what stage are the millions of poor Thais going to supported by the government once the charities and temples run out of charitable donations? I think of an old women, a friend of P from his temple, scraping a living selling a few shirts to tourists in Second Road. He always bought food for her when we passed her, out of compassion for her condition. Who is caring for her now? And for millions of others?

[Dodger]

I assume the people responsible for balancing the books are considering any/all potential impacts caused by banning tourists...not only the obvious loss of revenue - but also the negative impacts of tourism especially in places like Pattaya, and the potential positive impacts of having fewer tourists. Sound ridiculous?

When you consider things like; damage to the landscape: litter, erosion, fires, disturbance to livestock, vandalism. traffic congestion, road accidents and fatalities, water pollution threatening the health of humans and animals, air pollution (carbon emissions), solid waste and littering, releases of sewage, oil and chemicals, even architectural/visual pollution, having fewer tourists does not always have only its downside. Though it may contribute to the growth of Thailand's economy, there is no doubt that the tourism industry damages communities and the environment....and all these things have a price tag.

If Thailand can increase its exports to help absorb the loss in GNP - the money saved by not ruining the entire ecosystem may be a viable option. In any event, I agree with MFAS, that lifting the travel ban knowing that it's not safe to do so, is probably not an option they're willing to consider.

[siscu58]

The first vaccine is likely to be largely ineffective or fail altogether (given the history of vaccine development) and this virus will keep circulating about, popping up here and there, at its will, for years to come. If it doesn't kill a lot of (more) people, it will be a damn nuisance, which is well worse than the common flu, for perhaps a generation. Don't expect miracles, boys, it is not going to happen.

Mark, I hope you are wrong. Several vaccines are in a third phase of trial and expected to be of use for general population in about 6 months. I wish they will be effective. Waiting a generation to come back to LOS is not an option to me.

[goji]

When you consider things like; damage to the landscape: litter, erosion, fires, disturbance to livestock, vandalism. traffic congestion, road accidents and fatalities, water pollution threatening the health of humans and animals, air pollution (carbon emissions), solid waste and littering, releases of sewage, oil and chemicals, even architectural/visual pollution, having fewer tourists does not always have only its downside.

The Thai government has done almost nothing about these environmental issues in the past and I very much doubt it will be a priority going forward.
For instance, regarding air pollution, they haven't even done the easy things that have relatively little pain. So keeping 20% of the economy shut down for pollution reasons isn't going to happen.

Mark, I hope you are wrong. Several vaccines are in a third phase of trial and expected to be of use for general population in about 6 months. I wish they will be effective. Waiting a generation to come back to LOS is not an option to me.

A vaccine seems rather likely to me. There are so many under development & if we combine that with increased know how and the pressure, it seems quite likely that one will succeed.
Also, with or without a vaccine, there's no way we will be shut out of Thailand for a generation due to COVID. Even without a vaccine, people will get bored with all the irrational fear and learn to get on with it.

Just to put it in perspective, the WHO estimate that 22941 people die in Thailand from road traffic accidents each year.
So far, there have been 58 COVID deaths in Thailand. Roughly equivalent to one day's road traffic deaths. Yet they don't close roads or properly enforce any of the road safety legislation.

The COVID stats also include periods when tourists were free to travel to Thailand from countries which had much higher COVID infection rates than now.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/a...ntl/index.html

[Manforallseasons]

Without an effective vaccine the fact that Thailand has experienced only 58 deaths is all the more reason the government has little interest in seeing this number grow and knows very well that the country’s health system would be totally unable to deal with a huge number of new cases. If and when a vaccine is available my concern is where Thailand’s place will be in the pecking order to receive the vaccine.

[aot871]

Without an effective vaccine the fact that Thailand has experienced only 58 deaths is all the more reason the government has little interest in seeing this number grow and knows very well that the country’s health system would be totally unable to deal with a huge number of new cases. If and when a vaccine is available my concern is where Thailand’s place will be in the pecking order to receive the vaccine.

I read yesterday in the bkk post that the thai goverment was investing in the oxford uni vacine trail